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UFC heads to Mexico City for the eighth time on Saturday, streaming on Paramount+ from Arena CDMX. UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh is headlined by a pair of ranked flyweights, and each bout on the six-fight main card (8 p.m. ET) features a Mexican athlete. The showcase contest will see sixth-ranked Brandon Moreno (23-8-2) facing No. 15 Lone’er Kavanagh (9-1). Moreno, from Tijuana, is a two-time UFC Flyweight Champion and is the -225 favorite (risk $225 to win $100). Meanwhile, Kavanagh is a late replacement for this card and is the +185 underdog in the newest UFC Fight Night odds.

The co-main event for UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh is a bantamweight bout between Marlon Vera and David Martinez. With nine straight wins, Martinez is the -265 favorite to utilize in UFC bets, while Vera (+215) looks to end a three-fight losing streak. Before locking in any UFC picks, make sure you see the MMA predictions and betting advice from Mike McClure’s proven computer model.

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McClure’s UFC model runs 10,000 simulations for every fight. Each simulation plays out the fight round-by-round, accounting for dynamic win probability that shifts based on fighter attributes, round-by-round finish calculations with KO/submission timing, accumulating damage factors that increase finish likelihood in later rounds and fighter-specific finishing tendencies such as power punchers vs grapplers vs decision fighters.

The model backtested against more than 500 fights from 2023-25 and showed more than 18 units of profit — a 6.1% ROI on UFC betting. It also got off to a hot start for the new era of UFC on Paramount+, hitting both Justin Gaethe to win outright (+195) and the Over in total rounds in the main event at UFC 324.

Now, the model has analyzed Moreno vs. Kavanagh from every angle and revealed its top betting picks and best bets. Head to SportsLine to see them. 

Moreno vs. Kavanagh preview 

Moreno, 32, has been a professional since 2011 and made his UFC debut in 2016. With a decade under the promotion, Moreno holds the all-time UFC flyweight record for significant strikes landed (1,229) and has the fourth-most victories (11) in the division. At UFC 263 in 2021, he defeated Deiveson Figueiredo for the flyweight title to become the first Mexican-born champion in UFC history.

Nicknamed “The Assassin Baby,” Moreno has a big experience edge over his opponent, with 34 fights under his belt, compared to Kavanagh having just 10 pro bouts. However, Moreno is just 5-5-1 over the last 11 times he’s stepped into the Octagon, and that span includes twice winning the UFC Flyweight Championship but also twice losing the title. Four of his last five bouts have gone to the scorecard, and he was TKO’d in his last fight in December by Tatsuro Taira. Across his 34 matches, and nine losses, though, Moreno has never submitted in his MMA career. Check out SportsLine to see the model’s picks and analysis.

The 26-year-old Kavanagh has youth to his advantage, making his MMA debut in 2019 and his UFC debut in 2024. The Englishman was originally scheduled to face Bruno Silva on this card but was pulled in as an injury replacement when Asu Almabayev withdrew from his scheduled fight with Moreno. This will be just Kavanagh’s second fight in North America and his first in the country of Mexico.

Kavanagh won his first nine pro bouts, five via knockout, three by way of decision and one by submitting his opponent. However, he suffered defeat for the first time in his career the last time he stepped into the Octagon in Aug. 2025. He was knocked out by Charles Johnson in the second round, and Saturday’s bout will be Kavanagh’s first-ever 5-round fight. While Moreno has a BJJ background, Kavanagh is rooted in kickboxing as he is a five-time K-1 world champion. You can only see the model’s UFC picks and analysis at SportsLine. 

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh predictions

One of the model’s top UFC Fight Night picks: It is backing Over 1.5 rounds (+3.8% edge) in the middleweight bout of Ryan Gandra vs. Jose Daniel Medina, which returns +100. Gandra has fought just twice since late 2023, so he’s likely to be a bit cautious early on in getting reacclimated to the Octagon. Meanwhile, Medina has seen three of his last five bouts not only go Over 1.5 rounds, but they all went to the judges scorecards as they went the full allotment of time.

“The model sees a 75 percent decision rate with just a 25 percent finish probability and a 2.60 round average fight length. Stylistically this should extend,” McClure told SportsLine. See who else to back here. 

You can make this pick at FanDuel, where new users can also check out the newest FanDuel promo code and get $100 in bonus bets instantly at FanDuel if your first $5+ bet wins. 

How to make UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh picks

The model has picks for six other bouts on the UFC card. It is also backing several underdogs, as well as a UFC best bet that returns over +500. You can see who it is only at SportsLine.

Who wins Moreno vs. Kavanagh, and which UFC best bet of over +500 should you be all over? Visit SportsLine now to get detailed picks and analysis from the advanced model which showed a 6.1% ROI from over 500 fights from 2023-25, and find out.

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh main fight card, odds 

See picks at SportsLine.
(Odds from DraftKings and subject to change)

Brandon Moreno (-245) vs. Lone’er Kavanagh (+186)
Marlon Vera (+220) vs. David Martinez (-295)
Daniel Zellhuber (-520) vs. King Green (+350)
Edgar Chairez (-295) vs. Felipe Bunes (+220)
Imanol Rodriguez (-430) vs. Kevin Borjas (+300)
Santiago Luna (-480) vs. Angel Pacheco (+330)

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