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By the time Selection Sunday arrives in eight days, there will have been plenty of movement in the projected field of 68 for the 2026 men’s NCAA tournament regarding the teams that are in, as well as those looking to get in.
While Bracketology allows us to look at the race to March Madness holistically, results every day matter and can affect teams — whether they’re playing or not. It is particularly important during Champ Week, when a team’s bracket fate hangs on the two weeks of single-elimination conference tournaments — whether it is a lock for the field or on the bubble. We’re taking you inside the mind of men’s bracketologist Joe Lunardi, who is tracking every single game, and the associated stakes, between updating his projections for the field of 68.
We’ll give you an inside look at the headlines that inform Joey Brackets’ calculations through Champ Week and all the way up to Selection Sunday (March 15).
Games are listed in order of importance to bracket movement. A team’s projection on that day is listed in parentheses, if not otherwise noted.
Scores available here. All times Eastern
Projected field of 68 |
Bubble Watch |
Champ Week schedule |
NCAA tournament details
HEADLINES
A change on the top line: UConn’s bad loss gives Florida the fourth No. 1 seed, as the Gators knock off Kentucky on the road.
State of the bubble: With five other bubble teams losing, Auburn goes into Tuscaloosa tonight suddenly as the “Last Team In.”
Losers in the bracket race: Incredibly, any of these five teams could have been ahead of Auburn with a Saturday win: Indiana (currently losing), Virginia Tech, New Mexico, Cincinnati, Cal.
Bid No. 1 is locked! Long Island University is the first official team in the Dance after advancing to the NEC title game against ineligible Mercyhurst (7 p.m., March 10, ESPN2).
NIT projections: The following non-high-major regular-season champions are guaranteed an NIT auto bid, should they lose in their conference tournaments: Miami (Ohio) (MAC), South Florida (American), Belmont (MVC), High Point (Big South), Liberty (CUSA), Stephen F. Austin (Southland), UNC Wilmington (Coastal) and North Dakota State (Summit League).
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GAMES THAT COULD AFFECT THE BRACKET
(5) North Carolina at (1) Duke. Both teams are staring at major seeding/placement opportunities — yes, even 1-seed Duke. 6:30 p.m., ESPN
(Last Team In) Auburn at (4) Alabama. Auburn has backed itself into a must-win corner on the final day of the regular season. 8:30 p.m., ESPN
(Considered) Oklahoma at (10) Texas. It’s a last stand for the Sooners and a seed opportunity for the Longhorns. 8:30 p.m., SEC Network
(9) UCLA at (Considered) USC. The Trojans can pretty much kiss an NCAA tournament appearance goodbye with another loss. 9 p.m., FS1
Morehead State vs. (16) Tennessee State. NCAA bid. No. 2 will come from this OVC championship game. 9 p.m., ESPN2
UC Davis at (14) UC Irvine. Winning this will help the Anteaters seal their lead in the Big West — they currently own the league tiebreaker over Hawai’i. 8 p.m., ESPNU
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