Five Western Conference teams know they’re heading to the playoffs. Three more know they’ll be battling it out in the play-in. The fates of the Minnesota Timberwolves and Phoenix Suns could clear up the West playoff picture Tuesday night. Minnesota visits the tanking Indiana Pacers (7 p.m. ET) needing a win and a Suns loss to clinch the final guaranteed playoff spot in the West. Phoenix hosts the Houston Rockets in the last game of the night (11 p.m. ET, NBC/Peacock). Houston is just a game back of the Los Angeles Lakers for fourth in the West. The Lakers play host to the West-leading Oklahoma City Thunder (10:30 p.m. ET), who beat Los Angeles by 43 points in OKC last week.

The Miami Heat and Toronto Raptors will play each other in Toronto on both Tuesday and Thursday. ESPN’s Basketball Power Index rates those as the two most important regular-season games remaining in terms of determining seeding. Miami has fallen to 10th in the East but is just two games back of Toronto for sixth.

Here’s a look at the current and projected NBA playoff picture, the most important games left in the regular season and how the race for the No. 1 pick in June’s draft is shaping up:

Jump to a section:
Current playoff matchups
Today’s schedule | Friday’s scores
<!– Clinching scenarios | –>Critical remaining games
Projected standings | Race for No. 1 pick

Current NBA playoff matchups

Eastern Conference playoffs

1. Detroit Pistons vs. 8. Play-in winner TBD
2. Boston Celtics vs. 7. Play-in winner TBD
3. New York Knicks vs. 6. Toronto Raptors
4. Cleveland Cavaliers vs. 5. Atlanta Hawks

Eastern Conference play-in

7. Philadelphia 76ers vs. 8. Charlotte Hornets
9. Orlando Magic vs. 10. Miami Heat
Loser 7/8 vs. Winner 9/10

Western Conference playoffs

1. Oklahoma City Thunder vs. 8. Play-in winner TBD
2. San Antonio Spurs vs. 7. Play-in winner TBD
3. Denver Nuggets vs. 6. Minnesota Timberwolves
4. Los Angeles Lakers vs. 5. Houston Rockets

Western Conference play-in

7. Phoenix Suns vs. 8. LA Clippers
9. Portland Trail Blazers vs. 10. Golden State Warriors
Loser 7/8 vs. Winner 9/10


NBA Playoff Challenge

Pick the winners and crown your NBA champion! Create A Bracket

Tuesday’s games

Bulls at Wizards, 7 p.m. ET
Timberwolves at Pacers, 7 p.m. ET
Bucks at Nets, 7:30 p.m. ET
Heat at Raptors, 7:30 p.m. ET
Hornets at Celtics, 8 p.m. ET (NBC/Peacock)
Jazz at Pelicans, 8 p.m. ET
Kings at Warriors, 10 p.m. ET
Thunder at Lakers, 10:30 p.m. ET
Mavericks at Clippers, 10:30 p.m. ET
Rockets at Suns, 11 p.m. ET (NBC/Peacock)


Monday’s scores

Knicks 108, Hawks 105
Magic 123, Pistons 107
Cavaliers 142, Grizzlies 126
Spurs 115, 76ers 102
Nuggets 137, Trail Blazers 132 (OT)


Most important games left

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Clinching scenarios

The Minnesota Timberwolves clinch a playoff spot with a win and a loss by the Phoenix Suns.

The Suns are locked into the play-in tournament with a loss and a win by the Timberwolves.

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Projected end-of-season standings

Projected Eastern Conference StandingsSeedTeamProjected Final Record1Detroit Pistons 59-23 2 Boston Celtics 56-26 3 New York Knicks 53-29 4 Cleveland Cavaliers 52-30 5 Atlanta Hawks 47-35 6 Toronto Raptors 45-37 7 Philadelphia 76ers 45-37 8 Charlotte Hornets 45-37 9 Orlando Magic 44-38 10 Miami Heat 43-39 11 Milwaukee Bucks 33-49 12 Chicago Bulls 31-51 13 Brooklyn Nets 20-62 14 Indiana Pacers 19-63 15 Washington Wizards 18-64 Projections via ESPN’s Basketball Power Index

Projected Western Conference StandingsSeedTeamProjected Final Record1Oklahoma City Thunder 65-17 2 San Antonio Spurs 62-20 3 Denver Nuggets 53-29 4 Los Angeles Lakers 52-30 5 Houston Rockets 52-30 6 Minnesota Timberwolves 49-33 7 Phoenix Suns 45-37 8 LA Clippers 42-40 9 Portland Trail Blazers 42-40 10 Golden State Warriors 39-43 11 New Orleans Pelicans 26-56 12 Dallas Mavericks 26-56 13 Memphis Grizzlies 26-56 14 Utah Jazz 22-60 15 Sacramento Kings 22-60 Projections via ESPN’s Basketball Power Index


Race for the No. 1 pick

The NBA uses a draft lottery to determine the order of the first four picks. All 14 teams that fail to make the playoffs are eligible to move up to the top four. After the order of the top four picks is set via the draw, the remainder of the first round is set in inverse order of the teams’ regular-season records. The three teams with the worst records each have an equal 14% chance of winning the lottery, with the odds for the non-playoff teams decreasing from there.

Among the projected lottery teams, there are multiple trades that could impact picks. The Atlanta Hawks will get the better of the picks from the New Orleans Pelicans and Milwaukee Bucks, with the lesser of the two picks going to Milwaukee. If the Indiana Pacers’ pick falls between five and nine, it will go to the LA Clippers. The Clippers’ own pick will go to the Oklahoma City Thunder. The Orlando Magic will send their pick to the Memphis Grizzlies.

The Utah Jazz will send their pick to the Thunder if it falls outside the top eight. The Portland Trail Blazers will send their pick to the Chicago Bulls if it falls outside the lottery (if they make the playoffs through the play-in tournament). The Washington Wizards’ pick is top-eight protected, and the probability of their selection ending up ninth or worse is extremely low.

Projected 2026 Lottery OrderNo.TeamCurrent RecordChance ForNo. 1 Pick1Washington Wizards 17-61 14% 2 Indiana Pacers 18-60 14% 3 Brooklyn Nets 19-59 14% 4 Utah Jazz 21-58 11.5% 5 Sacramento Kings 21-58 11.5% 6 New Orleans Pelicans* 25-54 9% 7 Memphis Grizzlies 25-54 7.5% 8 Dallas Mavericks 25-53 6% 9 Chicago Bulls 29-49 4.5% 10 Milwaukee Bucks 31-47 3% 11 Golden State Warriors 36-42 2% 12 Portland Trail Blazers 40-39 1.5% 13 Miami Heat 41-37 1% 14 Orlando Magic* 43-36 0.5% *The Pelicans’ pick would convey to the Atlanta Hawks.
The Magic’s pick would convey to the Grizzlies.

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