We’ve already witnessed the marvel that is the NBA playoff product compared to its often lackluster regular-season counterpart. We’re seeing every possession contested, rebounds fought for, players fighting through physical ailments and other competition-driven attributes to come to life when the pros play as if the outcome means something. Of course, that’s because it does.
We’ve already seen both the Portland Trail Blazers and Golden State Warriors overcome double-digit deficits in the fourth quarter to win play-in games. The Blazers did so with a combination of rising stars stepping up with the help of some veteran savvy, while the Warriors came to life with a 35-point outburst from aging star Steph Curry and a red-hot shooting stretch from fellow veteran Al Horford to keep Golden State’s season alive.
This annual about-face in the NBA’s performance arc illustrates the product-quality issues it still faces in the regular season amid a sticky mix of load management, tanking and minimal effort as a byproduct of fully guaranteed contracts. While addressing those issues remains a work in progress, there’s no doubt that the polished postseason product takes some sting off muddling through the regular-season malaise.
When the urgency alarm triggers, we also tend to see a higher ceiling from some teams that went previously undetected. This could result from a combination of both effort issues and perhaps the return of ailing players who rested in preparation for the postseason.
As such, we usually see at least one major first-round upset, or a dark horse team make a deep run that few observers saw coming. For instance, last year the Indiana Pacers were the No. 4 seed in the Eastern Conference and had odds of +6000 or steeper to win the title even after the playoff matchups were set. The Pacers memorably toppled the Bucks, Cavaliers and Knicks, as an underdog in each series. They came up one win short against the Oklahoma City Thunder for what would have been the biggest upset in NBA Finals history.
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So although we will likely see a first-round upset or two, some greater value in the NBA postseason odds can be found using the series spreads. They are similar to a game point spread, where oddsmakers offer a series outcome where the margin of victory in the series serves as a handicap and bettors can back one side to maximize value. For instance, we believe the Los Angeles Lakers will be competitive with the Houston Rockets and might take a shot on the series price at +425, but the bet on them to at least go down fighting provides a lucrative proposition, and this is among our first-round series value plays below.
Lakers +2.5 games, -105
Despite being without the services of injured star Luka Doncic and key contributor Austin Reaves, the Lakers have proved they are still dangerous even if they are forced to be carried by 41-year-old LeBron James. When he gets ample help from veterans such as Deandre Ayton and Rui Hachimura, this is still a viable club and one that we expect will give the heavily favored Rockets a bit of a headache. The Rockets have had a habit of losing large leads and being a bit wobbly in close games. Although we expect Houston to likely cross the finish line with the series victory, it’s far from a stretch to see Los Angeles banking two games, which would cash this wager.
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Trail Blazers +2.5 games, +160
Fifth-year pro Deni Advija appears to be a late-blooming star, and solid veterans such as Jerami Grant and Jrue Holiday, who was instrumental for both the Bucks and Celtics in their championship-winning seasons, provide Portland with enough of an arsenal to be a dangerous first-round opponent. The 62-win Spurs might be the most viable candidate to unseat the Thunder in the Western Conference but its core of star players, led by 22-year-old Victor Wembanyama, is untested on the big stage. With lower expectations and nothing to lose, Portland’s mix of talent, along with a focused but relaxed mentality, should give the Blazers a chance to cover this series spread.
