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MANCHESTER — Mikel Arteta was right when he ascribed Arsenal’s defeat to Manchester City to events within both penalty areas. Erling Haaland scored his best chance, Kai Havertz spurned his at the death. And yet, perhaps the bigger issue wasn’t what the visitors did when they got the ball into the penalty area, but how much more infrequently they actually got there.

By most statistical measures, this was the sort of pretty even contest that would have been decided by which forward line is slightly more incisive than the other. The expected goals favored Arsenal 1.53 to 1.41, the possession was a statistic where City had the lead with 58.5% of the ball. Multiple possession models liked the Gunners a shade more, but in the grand scheme of things, the data behind this game seems to echo Arteta’s assessment.

“We proved that we are there, but the reality is in the two boxes today was a difference and that’s what decided the game,” stated the Arsenal manager. “The difference was 100% there.

“The margins are… I mean we hit the post, and I just look at the images. It’s incredible how the ball doesn’t go in. So there is an element of luck. There is an element there of timing, of execution. It’s a lot of things that have to be your way. They didn’t go our way, and we have to recognize that at the end, winning and not winning is going to come down to these moments.”

In a game of such fine margins, anything out of kilter stands out all the more — anything such as the spectacular imbalance when it comes to penalty box touches between these two teams. It’s no wonder Arsenal had to be better than they were in both boxes. In their own they allowed City to touch the ball 40 times, a number they have only exceeded on three occasions across their four seasons of Premier League title contention. 

At the other end, they had just 14 in their opponent’s box. The only league game where they have dropped below that mark? The siege of the Etihad Stadium in September 2024 when a first-half red card forced the Gunners to set up a defensive wall in their own area. It shouldn’t be surprising that that was also one of those games where they conceded more possession in the danger zone. Indeed, it is only that and a bizarre 2-2 draw with Liverpool late in the 2022-23 season. 

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This really is a game that changes quite significantly depending on the lens you apply to it. On the xG race above, there was something here for Arsenal.

On momentum, well this was always a game in City’s control. Now some of this is explained by the sheer weirdness of Arsenal’s goal, the Kai Havertz charge down on Gianluigi Donnarumma that stunned the Etihad Stadium moments after Rayan Cherki’s brilliant opener. Arsenal’s greatest threat through bursting out after City had pinned them back.

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Even so, those questions from both boxes linger. It is supposed to be like pulling toenails, getting into the Arsenal box. This season they allow just 16.5 touches per Premier League game on average. Now, 31 of those other games have been against teams that don’t have Cherki, Jeremy Doku and Antoine Semenyo. It matters a great deal that City have a talent level in attacking midfield that none of Arsenal’s rivals can call on.

Cherki in particular was unstoppable in the first half, gliding past Gabriel and Piero Hincapie like these weren’t two of the Premier League’s best defenders. After he’d scored his magnificent goal, Arsenal afforded him a level of respect that few others get. There was nothing quite as reflective of the excellence of City’s No.10 than him charging towards the penalty area, lollipoping at Gabriel, who was too transfixed to make a tackle. His nine touches in the penalty area are a tally bettered by only five opponents since the start of the 2022-23 Premier League season: Erling Haaland, Bernardo Silva, Mohamed Salah, Alejandro Garnacho and, of course, Christian Norgaard back when he was on Brentford (I don’t know either).

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Plenty more had a high volume of touches, and some of that might come down to the players Arsenal were able to field. In particular, Doku and the outstanding Nico O’Reilly created all sorts of threat down the right. Cristhian Mosquera put in an industrious shift against Doku, holding out for 36 minutes on a yellow card. He just isn’t Jurrien Timber, the sort of player who could shut down some of those 15 progressive carries. Piero Hincapie didn’t cover himself in glory against Antoine Semenyo either.

Maybe that is impossible. Maybe the answer was Arsenal needed to do more at the other end, given that even their defense couldn’t stop Doku, Semenyo, Cherki and Haaland. That is where the picture gets somewhat weirder. Arsenal did a lot of great stuff in City’s third, especially when they didn’t have the ball. On six separate occasions, they won the ball in the attacking third, once more than their opponents. They didn’t keep it there as well, 129 final third touches to City’s 205, but the balance there is altogether more than around the box.

Arsenal just couldn’t manufacture pressure in the areas they really needed to. There were two openings for Havertz, six touches in total, and Noni Madueke was the only other player to register more than one penalty box touch. His game ended at half time. It is here where the gap in individual excellence shines through. Perhaps at the peak of his powers Martin Odegaard might have been one of those who excelled in this big game, instead it was moments like the below that defined the club captain’s visit to the Etihad.

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Premier League

Slipped into an advantageous position on the edge of the area, Odegaard might have passed, but he instead opted to take on Bernardo Silva. He got nowhere against the City captain. One of Arsenal’s last chances to burst into the box fell apart, and it was not the first occasion that Odegaard was indiscreet with possession where it mattered most. A player who once seemed to dictate the rhythm of entire games from his spot on the right corner of the box was guilty of overhitting or misreading all game long. Did he put slightly too much on his teeing up of Havertz? It’s a question you’d only ask of Odegaard, but you can’t not with a player of his talent.

Arteta, however, pushed back at the idea that this was a game decided by individual talent in the boxes. “Every team has an identity because of the players and the manners that they have. And especially when you play against this opponent, you have to be very clear what you have to do and what you want to play the game.”

It is easy to see why he would not want to publicly concede that Haaland, Cherki and their supporting cast are better than what he has at his disposal. Anyway, it is not like they are going to have to keep those two out again in the five remaining games in which they might yet win the title.

As for what that particular statistical curio has told us, perhaps it tells us more about City than Arsenal. For the latter, the totality of the performance was enough to give Mikel Arteta real hope that his team can win out and force the title race to goal difference.”I believe today, I believe on Wednesday a week ago because I see them every day and I know the level that we have,” stated Arteta. “Today if they need to be more convinced, I think they are now more convinced. They were talking about it in the dressing room.
“It’s a new league now. They were a game in hand. We have three points of advantage and five games to play. So everything is still to play for. So we know how much we’ve won it and we’re not going to stop and we’re going to go again, that’s for sure.”

City, however, are hitting this “new league” in formidable form. If they can put up 40 penalty box touches against the team Pep Guardiola labels the best in England, how are Burnley, Everton and the rest of those to come going to stop them not only from getting the wins they need but racking up the goals that win them the title?