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It should be a very interesting night at Citi Field in Queens on Tuesday as the New York Mets return home on an 11-game losing streak. Yet I think they are a pretty solid wager against the Minnesota Twins, thanks in part to the visitors making a pitching change.

Mets vs. Twins same-game parlay (+100 at DraftKings)

  • Mets money line
  • Alt Under 10.5

As a former newspaper guy, I can promise the big papers in New York already have a “Mets Fire Carlos Mendoza” story in the hopper in anticipation of the New York manager taking the fall for the team’s losing streak. On Friday, Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns backed Mendoza, simply stating the team needs to play better and that he’s not looking to make wholesale changes.

But that was with New York on a nine-game skid. Perhaps the most painful of the 11 was Sunday’s 2-1 defeat at Wrigley Field in 10 innings as the Mets led 1-0 entering the bottom of the ninth. High-priced free-agent closer Devin Williams couldn’t hold that, and then gas-can Craig Kimbrel pitched the 10th and you knew it was curtains.

Mendoza seemed to make a major tactical error in the bottom of the 10th by not intentionally walking Chicago’s Nico Hoerner with one out and a man on third. In theory, the Mets could have gotten an inning-ending double play and Hoerner is by far the Cubs’ best contact hitter. So naturally, he hit the winning sacrifice fly. 

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I seriously thought that was going to be Mendoza’s last game with the club. The 11-game skid is the team’s longest since it lost 11 in a row from Aug. 28-Sept. 8 in 2004; the last 12-game slide was in August 2002. It is the longest April losing streak in franchise history, and it’s the fastest New York has reached 15 losses since 1983. It has on of the worst records in the majors despite having the second-highest payroll ($352.5 million) in MLB.

New York has been outscored 62-19 during this run and is batting .145 with runners in scoring position. My guess is that Stearns and ownership is waiting on any major changes until they see the team once Juan Soto gets back from a strained right calf. He’s expected to return later during this nine-game homestand.

“It’s gonna get loud. It’s gonna get very loud,” Francisco Lindor mentioned of returning home “Everyone here knows it.” Indeed, part of me is rooting for Minnesota to score a couple in the first simply to hear all the fans’ displeasure.

Entering the season, the Mets were -275 to make the playoffs but are now +120. There have been three teams to have 11-game losing streaks and make the playoffs in the same season: the 1951 Giants, 1982 Braves and 2017 Dodgers. Only those Giants had their skid in April. The previous three seasons the Mets had losing streaks of at least 11, their manager did not return the following season (1991, 2002, 2004)

This homestand is a chance to get right as none of the Twins, Nationals or Rockies are very good. And the pitching matchup on paper certainly favors the Mets tonight as it’s righty Nolan McLean, my NL Rookie of the Year pick back in March. He’s now the +250 second favorite behind Cincinnati’s Sal Stewart (+165).

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The 24-year-old McLean has been terrific with a 2.28 ERA and 0.76 WHIP with 28 strikeouts in 23.2 innings but is only 1-1 due to lack of run support at just 3.75 per. Thus, New York is 1-3 in his four starts. McLean’s career ERA of 2.13 is second in Mets history by a pitcher through 12 career starts, ahead of legends such as Tom Seaver, Jerry Koosman, Dwight Gooden and Jacob deGrom, and behind only Terry Leach’s 1.70 ERA.

Of McLean’s 12 starts, eight have come after losses, and he has stepped up as a true ace stopper. The Mets won five of the first six he started following a defeat. The Twins have never seen him, so that helps a bit.

New York has caught a nice break for Tuesday as former touted prospect Mick Abel was originally scheduled to start for the Twins but landed on the injured list Tuesday. Abel has had back-to-back scoreless starts spanning 13 innings with only eight hits allowed compared to 16 strikeouts.

The Amazins will instead see the struggling Simeon Woods Richardson, who is 0-3 with a 6.10 ERA and 1.60 WHIP in 20.2 innings over four starts. He started the year with two solid outings but was crushed in the past two. A few Mets have good if limited splits off him in Bo Bichette (2-for-4, HR), MJ Melendez (2-for-2, two doubles) and Tommy Pham (2-for-5, HR and double).

In addition, the Twins will be without one of their top relievers after southpaw Kody Funderburk (1-1, 2.00 ERA, four holds, one save) landed on the Paternity List on Monday. 

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I’ll punch the total up as high as we can go at DraftKings to stay with a plus-money parlay. While winds are blowing out a little at Citi Field, it’s also going to be quite chilly tonight. McLean should keep the Twins mostly in check anyways. Check out other expert picks in the SportsLine daily newsletter.