Indiana
• Jr
• 6’5″
/ 236 lbs
Projected Team
Las Vegas
|
PROSPECT RNK
1st
|
POSITION RNK
1st
|
PAYDS
3535
|
RUYDS
276
|
INTS
6
|
TDS
48
|
He’s -20000 to be picked first, and he’s going to be picked first.
|
Ohio State
• Jr
• 6’4″
/ 243 lbs
Projected Team
N.Y. Jets
|
PROSPECT RNK
3rd
|
POSITION RNK
2nd
|
This has gone back and forth over the past few days, with Reese being the heavy favorite on Monday, David Bailey moving to a moderate favorite on Tuesday, and Reese retaking the lead around midday Wednesday while I was putting together data for this exercise. We’ll see if this is the final momentum shift or if there are still developments to come.
|
Texas Tech
• Sr
• 6’4″
/ 250 lbs
Projected Team
Arizona
|
PROSPECT RNK
20th
|
POSITION RNK
3rd
|
Odds are tight here between Reese, Bailey and Jeremiyah Love, and with Bailey and Love both +190, we’re going to go edge rusher here for a cleaner top four. Reese and Bailey are still -4000 to be top-five picks, while Love is just -400 in that market, which is a good tiebreaker.
|
Notre Dame
• Jr
• 6’0″
/ 214 lbs
Projected Team
Tennessee
|
PROSPECT RNK
7th
|
POSITION RNK
1st
|
RUYDS
1372
|
YDS/ATT
6.9
|
REYDS
280
|
TDS
21
|
Love seems almost certain to go anywhere from third to fifth, and even with the buzz connecting him to the Cardinals, he’s still the -105 favorite to be this pick. Sonny Styles is next at +250 as of writing, while Bailey is +475 and Reese is +650.
|
Arizona State
• Jr
• 6’2″
/ 203 lbs
Projected Team
N.Y. Giants
|
PROSPECT RNK
23rd
|
POSITION RNK
5th
|
REC
61
|
REYDS
711
|
YDS/REC
11.7
|
TDS
9
|
We’re going to pass on Styles here as he’s -150 to go Over 5.5 as laid out in the intro. Not only is Tyson a logical fit after acing his workout, but he’s also the next prospect on the over/under board juiced to the Under — the next up behind Styles on the top-five board and the second favorite to be the fifth pick. Styles is the favorite to be the pick here, but only at +190, so we’re giving more weight to the market’s over/under.
|
Miami (Fla.)
• Jr
• 6’6″
/ 329 lbs
Projected Team
Cleveland
|
PROSPECT RNK
16th
|
POSITION RNK
4th
|
Mauigoa is only +600 to be this pick, which is behind Styles, Carnell Tate and Spencer Fano. However, he is still the favorite to be the first offensive lineman selected and has much shorter odds to be a top-10 pick than Fano. Carnell Tate is -155 to go Over 7.5 as of writing, and Styles does not make a ton of sense for Cleveland. So Mauigoa it is.
|
Ohio State
• Sr
• 6’5″
/ 243 lbs
Projected Team
Washington
|
PROSPECT RNK
9th
|
POSITION RNK
1st
|
Styles’ mini slide ends here, where he’s the third favorite behind Tate (who again is juiced Over 7.5, so not an option for us) and Love, who is long gone. A team interested in Styles would be well-served reaching out to Cleveland if he makes it out of the top five, and the Commanders could also be a trade-down candidate if they’d rather go receiver.
|
Ohio State
• Jr
• 6’2″
/ 192 lbs
Projected Team
New Orleans
|
PROSPECT RNK
18th
|
POSITION RNK
3rd
|
REC
51
|
REYDS
875
|
YDS/REC
17.2
|
TDS
9
|
Tate is +450 to be the eighth pick versus +425 for Mansoor Delane, but the latter is 12th in odds to go top 10 (when factoring in the players not on the board expected to go in top five), so he’s not as good an option for us here. Tyson is the favorite to go eighth at +200, but he went off the board a few picks ago.
|
Miami (Fla.)
• Jr
• 6’2″
/ 263 lbs
Projected Team
Kansas City
|
PROSPECT RNK
2nd
|
POSITION RNK
1st
|
Bain is -400 to go Over 8.5, so this is the first spot where we can slot him in, and while that massive number could mean a slide down the board, he’s still slightly favored over Delane — who is cofavored at ninth with Bain — to be a top-10 pick. The Chiefs are the first team that we have positional odds for their first pick, but with the top-four favorites between +250 and +320, they don’t help much.
|
Ohio State
• Jr
• 6’0″
/ 205 lbs
Projected Team
N.Y. Giants
|
PROSPECT RNK
8th
|
POSITION RNK
1st
|
Downs is a candidate to go fifth overall, where he’s tied for third favorite with Love, and favored to go 10th, so you’d have to figure he’d be the pick here to wrap up our top-10 market. Since he’s -125 to go Over 9.5, we didn’t want to slot him in earlier than here.
|
Utah
• Jr
• 6’6″
/ 311 lbs
Projected Team
Miami
|
PROSPECT RNK
5th
|
POSITION RNK
2nd
|
Fano is a cofavorite to go sixth and seems to be an option for the Chiefs and Giants as well. But his top-10 odds were just behind Bain, so he finds himself available here, where he’s tied with Mauigoa as the favorite to go 11th at +425.
|
LSU
• Sr
• 6’0″
/ 187 lbs
Projected Team
Dallas
|
PROSPECT RNK
14th
|
POSITION RNK
3rd
|
Delane is just +600 to be the pick here, but that makes him the favorite, and he’ll appeal to the Cowboys if he’s available considering their defensive needs. However, he could go anywhere in the back half of the top 10 or even 11th to Miami as well, explaining his longer odds as the favorite.
|
USC
• Jr
• 5’11”
/ 192 lbs
Projected Team
L.A. Rams
|
PROSPECT RNK
17th
|
POSITION RNK
2nd
|
REC
79
|
REYDS
1156
|
YDS/REC
14.6
|
TDS
13
|
Lemon and the Rams have been a popular pairing throughout mock draft season, and he’s the +250 favorite to be the pick here. The Rams are also +100 to make receiver their first pick, with offensive line next at +220.
|
Penn State
• Jr
• 6’4″
/ 323 lbs
Projected Team
Baltimore
|
PROSPECT RNK
15th
|
POSITION RNK
1st
|
Ioane is -310 to go Under 14.5, so this is his absolute floor in this exercise. He’s also the favorite for this pick at +230, with his next lowest odds at No. 10 (+500) in that market. The Ravens are +130 favorites to go with an offensive lineman first as well.
|
Oregon
• Jr
• 6’3″
/ 241 lbs
Projected Team
Tampa Bay
|
PROSPECT RNK
24th
|
POSITION RNK
1st
|
REC
51
|
REYDS
560
|
YDS/REC
11
|
TDS
8
|
Another popular pairing, and one that’s needed for us, as Sadiq is slightly favored to go Under 15.5 at -120. He is the favorite to be the 15th pick at +300, and while Tampa Bay is +125 to go defensive line/edge rusher first, the player they’re most connected to, Ahkeem Mesidor, has been pegged by the market right around the 25th or 26th pick.
|
Mock Trade from
New York Jets
Round 1 – Pick 16
Alabama
• Jr
• 6’7″
/ 352 lbs
Projected Team
Philadelphia
|
PROSPECT RNK
4th
|
POSITION RNK
1st
|
Our first trade results in Proctor being -195 to go Under 16.5 but not considered a match specifically for the Jets at 16th, where the market has him at +1500 — tied for ninth in odds behind several players still on the board. So the Eagles send Nos. 23 and 68 to move up, as they are -200 to take an offensive lineman first and know Detroit would take Proctor next.
|
Georgia
• Jr
• 6’7″
/ 315 lbs
Projected Team
Detroit
|
PROSPECT RNK
25th
|
POSITION RNK
5th
|
Freeling is a fine consolation prize for the Lions, and he’s the second favorite behind Proctor to be the 17th overall pick. The Lions are -380 to go offensive line first, and Freeling is -250 to be taken before No. 20, so this is an easy pick.
|
Oregon
• Soph
• 6’0″
/ 201 lbs
Projected Team
Minnesota
|
PROSPECT RNK
47th
|
POSITION RNK
3rd
|
This is the first spot where we could take Thieneman, who is -215 to go Over 17.5, and the Vikings are a rare team favored to take safety first at +130. Another oft-mocked pick that makes a lot of sense in this exercise.
|
Mock Trade from
Carolina Panthers
Round 1 – Pick 19
Indiana
• Jr
• 6’0″
/ 199 lbs
Projected Team
Cleveland
|
PROSPECT RNK
21st
|
POSITION RNK
4th
|
REC
69
|
REYDS
937
|
YDS/REC
13.6
|
TDS
14
|
Cooper isn’t going to be on the board for the Browns at No. 24, as he’s -160 to go Under 23.5, and while the Panthers could stick and take him, their positional odds board is a bit all over the place with offensive line the favorite at +225. So they get picks Nos. 24, 107 and 149 to move back and watch the board develop.
|
Auburn
• Jr
• 6’6″
/ 276 lbs
Projected Team
Dallas
|
PROSPECT RNK
34th
|
POSITION RNK
6th
|
Faulk is the cofavorite here with Akheem Mesidor, who we’ve reported is closer to 25 than 20 in the market as of this writing. Faulk is also slightly more likely to be a Round 1 pick at -700 versus -650 for Mesidor, making him our selection for Dallas.
|
Clemson
• Sr
• 6’7″
/ 317 lbs
Projected Team
Pittsburgh
|
PROSPECT RNK
29th
|
POSITION RNK
6th
|
While Caleb Lomu is +900 to be the 21st pick and Miller is +950, I’m putting more weight on the latter being -1600 to go in Round 1 versus -350 for Lomu. The Steelers are -105 to go offensive lineman first with receiver at +200, so that’s the direction we’re looking.
|
Miami (Fla.)
• Sr
• 6’3″
/ 259 lbs
Projected Team
L.A. Chargers
|
PROSPECT RNK
30th
|
POSITION RNK
4th
|
My initial run through the data had Mesidor as a slight favorite to go Over 25.5, which locked him out of the top 25, but that changed while working on this piece with him moving as a slight favorite to go Under 25.5. That makes this a good landing spot as the second favorite to go 22nd behind Faulk, with the Chargers -120 to go defensive lineman/edge rusher first.
|
Mock Trade from
Philadelphia Eagles
Round 1 – Pick 23
Texas A&M
• Jr
• 6’0″
/ 196 lbs
Projected Team
N.Y. Jets
|
PROSPECT RNK
12th
|
POSITION RNK
1st
|
REC
61
|
REYDS
919
|
YDS/REC
15.1
|
TDS
12
|
The Jets pick up an extra second-round pick to move down before taking their receiver, and this is the market’s range for Concepcion, as he’s -130 to go Under 24.5. He could be in play for either the Eagles or Browns (with the next pick) if they don’t trade up.
|
Mock Trade from
Cleveland Browns
Round 1 – Pick 24
Toledo
• Sr
• 6’4″
/ 202 lbs
Projected Team
Carolina
|
PROSPECT RNK
22nd
|
POSITION RNK
2nd
|
We need to find a spot for McNeil-Warren, who is -260 to be a first-round pick. With the Panthers a candidate to go safety at No. 19 and no clear favorite for their position, we’re going to make that the match.
|
UCF
• Sr
• 6’4″
/ 253 lbs
Projected Team
Chicago
|
PROSPECT RNK
52nd
|
POSITION RNK
5th
|
I initially had Lawrence at No. 22 before Mesidor’s shift inside the top 25. With the Bears -120 to take a defensive lineman/edge rusher first, the last EDGE on our top-32 board is a good fit here.
|
Mock Trade from
Buffalo Bills
Round 1 – Pick 26
Alabama
• Jr
• 6’1″
/ 211 lbs
Projected Team
Arizona
|
PROSPECT RNK
11th
|
POSITION RNK
2nd
|
PAYDS
3567
|
RUYDS
93
|
INTS
5
|
TDS
30
|
The Bills don’t have an edge rusher/defensive lineman available in our top 32, and we’re looking for a trade-up spot for Simpson, who is -270 to go Over 24.5 but the last player in our top 32 based on Round 1 odds. A swap of second- and third-round picks in 2027 makes sense for the value, but if the Cardinals want to stick to this year, they could offer Nos. 34, 65 and 183 for this pick and No. 91.
|
Arizona State
• Sr
• 6’6″
/ 321 lbs
Projected Team
San Francisco
|
PROSPECT RNK
31st
|
POSITION RNK
7th
|
Despite the Trent Williams extension, the 49ers are still favored to go offensive lineman first at -125. We’re opting for Iheanachor, who is -450 to be a Round 1 pick, over Caleb Lomu, who is just -350 to be a first-rounder.
|
Utah
• Soph
• 6’6″
/ 308 lbs
Projected Team
Houston
|
PROSPECT RNK
13th
|
POSITION RNK
3rd
|
A clear match here with the Texans -145 to go offensive lineman first and our final tackle left on the board. This leaves us with three corners and one receiver in the top 32 according to the Round 1 market, so we’ll have to match those players accordingly from here on out.
|
Tennessee
• Soph
• 6’0″
/ 195 lbs
Projected Team
Kansas City
|
PROSPECT RNK
59th
|
POSITION RNK
9th
|
Hood and Jermod McCoy are both -380 to be Round 1 picks, with the latter at -150 to go Over 28.5. That will make them our next two picks in either order with the Chiefs and Dolphins passing on Mansoor Delane in the top part of the draft.
|
Tennessee
• Jr
• 6’1″
/ 188 lbs
Projected Team
Miami
|
PROSPECT RNK
6th
|
POSITION RNK
1st
|
The Dolphins get the higher upside with the bigger medical risk in McCoy, a gamble they need to pay off as they look for stars to rebuild their roster.
|
Washington
• Jr
• 6’4″
/ 210 lbs
Projected Team
New England
|
PROSPECT RNK
45th
|
POSITION RNK
8th
|
REC
62
|
REYDS
881
|
YDS/REC
14.2
|
TDS
12
|
The Patriots don’t have a positional market at DraftKings, so we’re left deciding between a receiver and corner, with the former making more sense for their depth chart. Boston could go a little higher than this as he’s just -125 to go Over 26.5, and the Chiefs and Dolphins both make some sense after neither went receiver earlier.
|
San Diego State
• Sr
• 6’0″
/ 195 lbs
Projected Team
Seattle
|
PROSPECT RNK
27th
|
POSITION RNK
5th
|
The final player left on our top 32 board is Johnson, and the Seahawks are favored to go cornerback first at +155. This is certainly a trade-down spot as well, especially if Simpson is still on the board, but with Johnson at -250 to go in Round 1 and no one else available shorter than -190, he’s our pick here.
|
