2026 Fantasy Baseball First Base Preview: Sleepers, breakouts, busts, ranking the top 12 and more

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First base is still one of the best positions in Fantasy Baseball. You certainly don’t run out of viable starting options here nearly as quickly as you do at, say, second or third base.

You can find a strong source of batting average here. You’ll find 40-homer potential in the early rounds, and you can even find pretty good bets for 30 or so homers well after the 200th pick in most drafts. It’s not quite as deep with impact players at shortstop, but there are probably more good players at this position than at any other infield position. You don’t have to draft an early-rounder at first base to guarantee good numbers from the spot.

But it’s not as good as it used to be, that’s for sure. As a whole, first basemen put up a 109 wRC+ in 2025, which was a mild improvement from 2024. But it’s still the fourth-lowest mark managed by first basemen since 2002, when FanGraphs.com started splitting that number out by position played. And the number of legitimate four-category contributors at first base continues to shrink as the position continues to age.

Among the top 10 at first base in 2025, only Nick Kurtz, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Vinnie Pasquantino were younger than 28, and Pasquantino passed that milestone back in October. Paul Goldschmidt aged out of being an elite first baseman a few years ago, and we probably aren’t far from the Pete Alonso/Bryce Harper/Matt Olson/Freddie Freeman group becoming also-rans at the position. In fact, there’s a pretty good chance at least one of those guys takes a big enough step back in 2026 that we’re talking about them outside of the top 100 this time next year. Father Time is undefeated, after all.

And the next generation isn’t quite ready to take the baton just yet. Kurtz is, as the top player at the position in 2026 drafts, but we’re still waiting for him to be joined by other early-20s sluggers. The past five years haven’t been kind to young first basemen, and if that previous generation falls off sooner than expected, we could be in a state of panic at what has historically been the easiest position to fill in Fantasy.

But we aren’t there yet. And there are enough interesting young names like Bryce Eldridge, Kyle Manzardo, Munetaka Murakami, and Jonathan Aranda (among others) that we might just avoid that fate entirely. For now, first base is in okay shape, with enough big bats that it’s hard to end up feeling too bad about your options here, at least in a 12-team league.

But it’s a fragile position, and it wouldn’t take much going wrong with some of these guys in their 30s to leave you in a tough spot. Here’s what you need to know about first base for 2026:

Consensus Top 12

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Nick Kurtz

ATH

Athletics

• #16

•

Age: 22

Fantasy Breakdown

ADP

Roto

Roto (1B)

H2H

H2H (1B)

2025 Stats

AVG

0.29

HR

R

RBI

SB

SO

151

It was a historic season, and I’ll save my qualms for later in this column. Kurtz is clearly an elite power hitter, and his job is made even easier by the fact that Sacramento sure looks like the best hitting environment in baseball outside of Coors Field. Kurtz’s 50th percentile outcome probably looks a lot like Matt Olson (with the inherent volatility that implies), but he’s young enough that he may just blow past that kind of projection. If you’re paying full price for him in 2026 drafts, you’re kind of betting on that.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

TOR

Toronto

• #27

•

Age: 26

Fantasy Breakdown

ADP

Roto

Roto (1B)

H2H

H2H (1B)

2025 Stats

AVG

0.292

HR

R

RBI

SB

SO

Guerrero’s contact skill and lineup give him a pretty high floor, but … I don’t love his current price as a second-round pick. He could live up to it and then some – he was a top-10 hitter in 2024 – but more often than not, he’s been a disappointment in his MLB career. Yes, I saw what he did in the postseason, when he hit eight homers in 18 games. I also know he had a stretch in August of 2024 where he had nine homers. I’m unclear why that is supposed to change my opinion about him. He’s fine at his price, and there’s certainly plenty of room for profit. But I do wonder if we shouldn’t be past the point of giving Guerrero this kind of benefit of the doubt when his production doesn’t typically justify it.

Pete Alonso

BAL

Baltimore

• #25

•

Age: 31

Fantasy Breakdown

ADP

Roto

Roto (1B)

H2H

H2H (1B)

2025 Stats

AVG

0.272

HR

R

RBI

126

SB

SO

162

After being toward the back half of the second tier of first basemen over the past couple of years in drafts, Alonso finds himself elevated to the top of that group coming off a season where he posted his best batting average since 2022. He signed with the Orioles this offseason, and while it’s a fairly neutral park shift, you never quite know how hitters will perform in new homes – and when a hitter shifts leagues, they’ll be exposed to more pitchers they haven’t seen much of before, which often comes with an adjustment period. Alonso is a safe bet for 35 homers and a bunch of RBI, but his batting average has fluctuated from “good enough” to “tolerable” to “outright harmful” over the years, and I just don’t see much point in paying the Draft Day premium here.

Rafael Devers

SF

San Francisco

• #16

•

Age: 29

Fantasy Breakdown

ADP

Roto

Roto (3B)

H2H

H2H (3B)

2025 Stats

AVG

0.252

HR

R

RBI

109

SB

SO

192

For what it’s worth, Devers is my favorite target at the position, at least among the top-100 options. His price is lower because of concerns about how he’ll fare with a full season in San Francisco, but his full-season pace just in games played at Oracle Park was 37 homers, 175 combined runs and RBI, and a .234 batting average. That batting average is a bit worrisome, but when Alonso has hit .244 over the past three seasons combined, it’s a lot easier to stomach. Devers has some warning signs in his profile – his massive swing-and-miss issues, especially, stand out – but he has overcome them so far, and there’s no real sign that the bottom is about to fall out. My expectations for his batting average are certainly lower than they were in Boston, but overall, I expect something pretty similar from Devers as I do from Alonso, so I’ll just take the discount and say “thank you.”

Matt Olson

ATL

Atlanta

• #28

•

Age: 31

Fantasy Breakdown

ADP

Roto

Roto (1B)

H2H

H2H (1B)

2025 Stats

AVG

0.272

HR

R

RBI

SB

SO

176

Olson has salvaged disappointing seasons with red-hot finishes in each of his past two, but it’s hard to complain too much about the final numbers. He hasn’t lived up to the upside he showed in 2023, when his 54 homers and 139 RBI made him a top-10 hitter in Fantasy, but it would be unfair to hold that against him when he’s still a solid bet to approach 30 homers, 100 RBI, and 100 runs with a decent enough batting average. And it’s not like the skills that made him so good in 2023 have completely disappeared – his 93.3 mph average exit velocity was within spitting distance of his 93.7 mph number in 2023, for example. There could be one more 40-homer season left in Olson’s future.

Bryce Harper

PHI

Philadelphia

• #3

•

Age: 33

Fantasy Breakdown

ADP

Roto

Roto (DH)

H2H

H2H (DH)

2025 Stats

AVG

0.261

HR

R

RBI

SB

SO

121

Phillies president Dave Dombrowski made headlines this offseason when he mentioned Harper is no longer an “elite” player, but … he wasn’t wrong! Harper is still a very good hitter, but there has been a clear drop in his production over the past few years. He’s dealt with some injuries that might help explain that, but that’s also always been part of the deal with Harper, who has played more than 145 games just four times in 14 seasons – including none of his past five. He’s still a very solid all-around contributor, capable of at least plus production across all five Roto categories, but his expected wOBA on contact he’s dropped in consecutive seasons. He might turn that around – I certainly don’t feel great betting against a future first-ballot Hall of Famer – but the likeliest outcome for Harper is that he continues his gradual decline phase.

Freddie Freeman

LAD

L.A. Dodgers

• #5

•

Age: 36

Fantasy Breakdown

ADP

Roto

Roto (1B)

H2H

H2H (1B)

2025 Stats

AVG

0.295

HR

R

RBI

SB

SO

128

The decline phase is here. It has been and should continue to be a pretty gradual decline, with Freeman still looking like a standout source of batting average in a terrific lineup, but I think the chances of a return to 30-plus homers or double-digit steals at this point are pretty unlikely. Add in that we’re talking about a 36-year-old on a team that values October a lot more than April through September, there’s some heightened risk of injury, too. It’s a relatively safe skill set, but it’s not hard to imagine things going a little sideways, too.

Josh Naylor

SEA

Seattle

• #12

•

Age: 28

Fantasy Breakdown

ADP

Roto

Roto (1B)

H2H

H2H (1B)

2025 Stats

AVG

0.295

HR

R

RBI

SB

SO

I’m pretty confident Naylor will be a good contributor in 2026. I’m not at all sure what kind of good contributor he’ll be, since it seems like we get a different version of Naylor every season. In 2024, it was big power, but with a big hit to his batting average; in 2025, the power dropped considerably, but he hit .295 and somehow stole 30 bases. His return to Seattle as a free agent makes me more willing to buy into Naylor as a solid source of speed, though I’d take the under on another 30-steal season. At the very least, you’ll get some steals from a position where that is rare, and plenty of RBI; whether it’ll be a power-heavy or average-heavy season remains to be seen. But it’s unlikely you’ll be disappointed in Naylor either way.

Ben Rice

NYY

N.Y. Yankees

• #22

•

Age: 26

Fantasy Breakdown

ADP

Roto

Roto (1B)

H2H

H2H (1B)

2025 Stats

AVG

0.255

HR

R

RBI

SB

SO

100

If all goes well, you could absolutely use Ben Rice as your first baseman in Fantasy – without accounting for position scarcity, he was the 18th most valuable first baseman last season, and pretty much everyone expects him to be even better in 2026 with more playing time. Of course, if it’s true that he would be a viable starting first baseman, it’s also true that you would still much rather use him at catcher. So it goes.

Vinnie Pasquantino

KC

Kansas City

• #9

•

Age: 28

Fantasy Breakdown

ADP

104

Roto

Roto (1B)

H2H

H2H (1B)

2025 Stats

AVG

0.264

HR

R

RBI

113

SB

SO

107

Pasquantino had the breakout we’ve been waiting for, and with the fences moving in at Kauffman Stadium, the chances of real regression really go down. I don’t expect him to be much better than he was in 2025, but he should remain a strong source of power and run production with a batting average that won’t hurt you. And he might be even better in points leagues thanks to his strong contact skills.

Tyler Soderstrom

ATH

Athletics

• #21

•

Age: 24

Fantasy Breakdown

ADP

115

Roto

Roto (C)

H2H

111

H2H (C)

2025 Stats

AVG

0.276

HR

R

RBI

SB

SO

141

When a player has the kind of breakout Soderstrom did in 2025, I like to see how they react when things go wrong. Soderstrom hit nine homers through the end of April, but then he struggled pretty badly in May and June, putting up an OPS below .700 across both months. It looked like the hot start was just that, but then he bounced back with a big July and ultimately ended up hitting .300/.358/.495 in the second half of the season. The power was very front-loaded in his season, but his quality of contact (and a very helpful ballpark) suggests that Soderstrom’s 25 homers weren’t a fluke. I think expecting a repeat of 2025 is pretty reasonable.

Salvador Perez

KC

Kansas City

• #13

•

Age: 35

Fantasy Breakdown

ADP

110

Roto

Roto (C)

H2H

124

H2H (C)

2025 Stats

AVG

0.236

HR

R

RBI

100

SB

SO

125

Like with Rice, it’s not unreasonable to expect Perez to hit well enough to profile as a starting-caliber first baseman, especially as he potentially stands to benefit as much from the shorter fences in Kansas City as anyone. But if you do get starting-caliber first baseman production from him, that’s still more valuable from your catcher spot. The flexibility is nice in case you hit on an unexpected breakout from a second catcher or need to fill your 1B spot in an emergency, but you should never go into a season planning to use Perez at that spot.

Don’t Forget About …

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Michael Busch

CHC

Chi. Cubs

• #29

•

Age: 28

Fantasy Breakdown

ADP

Roto

104

Roto (3B)

H2H

129

H2H (3B)

2025 Stats

AVG

0.261

HR

R

RBI

SB

SO

139

Busch took a big step forward in 2025, bumping his average exit velocity from 89.9 to 92.2 mph en route to 13 more homers in just 25 more plate appearances. The question now is whether he can take another step forward – or at least outrun regression – by taking on a bigger role in the Cubs’ plans. They still mostly avoided using him against tougher lefties, which is why he has yet to reach even 600 PA in a season. Serving mostly as a platoon bat does probably help Busch’s batting average, but it leaves him at a deficit in counting stats. I’m skeptical he’ll get the playing time boost his biggest fans are hoping for, so I expect a bit of a step back in 2026. But he’s a solid starting option with plenty of upside, even if he does.

Yandy Diaz

TB

Tampa Bay

• #2

•

Age: 34

Fantasy Breakdown

ADP

Roto

121

Roto (1B)

H2H

H2H (1B)

2025 Stats

AVG

0.3

HR

R

RBI

SB

SO

Diaz’s career-high 25 homers last season were in large part a product of playing half his games at Steinbrenner Field – 18 of them came at home, often to right field with that short porch. I don’t expect a return to that kind of production. But he’s a good bet for batting average and a great points league option, and it’s not unreasonable to expect 15 homers and around 80 runs and RBI. He’s a better fit as a corner infielder, but his weird profile still works in Roto, especially if you need a relatively cheap source of batting average.

Jonathan Aranda

TB

Tampa Bay

• #8

•

Age: 27

Fantasy Breakdown

ADP

325

Roto

162

Roto (1B)

H2H

175

H2H (1B)

2025 Stats

AVG

0.316

HR

R

RBI

SB

SO

107

Aranda has been putting up big numbers and premium exit velocities in the minors for a long time, so it’s not that surprising that he had this kind of breakout in 2025. It’s also probably not sustainable. A .316 batting average while striking out 25% of the time requires either huge over-the-fence pop or an unsustainable BABIP, and the latter is what fueled Aranda’s breakout, as his .409 mark was 33 points higher than another player with at least 400 plate appearances. Aranda’s ability to hit the ball hard and hit a lot of line drives should help him run high BABIP marks, but even with that, you’re probably looking at 30-50 points of regression. He can make up for that with more over-the-fence pop, and I suspect we’ll get a bit more. Which all makes him a solid option as a low-end starting 1B, though more likely an ideal CI.

Willson Contreras

BOS

Boston

• #40

•

Age: 33

Fantasy Breakdown

ADP

211

Roto

201

Roto (C)

H2H

198

H2H (C)

2025 Stats

AVG

0.257

HR

R

RBI

SB

SO

142

Contreras is a much less interesting pick these days now that he no longer has catcher eligibility, but that doesn’t mean he’s a bad pick. His 162-game pace last season was 24 homers, 96 RBI, and 84 runs, and he even chipped in five steals for good measure. With his move to the Red Sox, he gets both a better home park and lineup, so a first 100-RBI season isn’t out of the question. However, he has always had trouble staying healthy, and that remained an issue in 2025, even with his move off catcher, so injury risk is still very much present for the 33-year-old.

Christian Walker

HOU

Houston

• #8

•

Age: 34

Fantasy Breakdown

ADP

202

Roto

216

Roto (1B)

H2H

210

H2H (1B)

2025 Stats

AVG

0.238

HR

R

RBI

SB

SO

177

Walker is coming off his worst season since 2021, and at 34 years old, it’s fair to assume he’ll never get back to being an impact player again. The fact that the Astros have seemingly had a hard time finding a taker for him in trade offers this offseason suggests other MLB teams don’t have much faith in it either. But he’s cheaper than ever in drafts this season, and we do have some reason to think a bounceback is possible, as he put up an .800 OPS in the second half and basically looked like himself after a dreadfully slow start. And, even in that down season, we still got nearly 30 homers and 90 RBI out of Walker. There is playing time uncertainty here, but those things often tend to work themselves out, and if Walker plays like he did in the second half, it’s going to be hard to take him out of the lineup.

Sleeper

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Munetaka Murakami

CHW

Chi. White Sox

•

Age: 26

Fantasy Breakdown

ADP

Roto

194

Roto (1B)

H2H

216

H2H (1B)

2025 Stats (NPB; 69 games)

AVG

.286

HR

R

RBI

SB

SO

Murakami was pretty much the best hitter in Japan over the past half-decade, though there were some real ups and downs. He struggled with contact in Japan, striking out around 28-29% of the time over the past three seasons, and it’s reasonable to expect that number to be even higher in the majors. So he’ll need to be an elite power hitter to overcome that. The good news is he’s been the premier power hitter in the second-best professional league in the world and is still very much in his prime. There is 35-homer potential here, and that isn’t the ceiling. There is also considerable platoon and batting average risk. But with an ADP outside of the top 200, it’s a lot easier to focus on the upside when you’re looking for cheap power.

Breakout

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Kyle Manzardo

CLE

Cleveland

• #9

•

Age: 25

Fantasy Breakdown

ADP

293

Roto

212

Roto (1B)

H2H

241

H2H (1B)

2025 Stats

AVG

0.234

HR

R

RBI

SB

SO

135

We got a near 30-homer season out of Manzardo already, but with a poor batting average and limited counting stats, so I understand the lack of interest in him in drafts. But the Guardians started treating him more like an everyday player down the stretch, as he started seven of their final 10 games against lefty starts, including a must-win playoff game against Tarik Skubal. His .672 OPS against lefties isn’t great, but the underlying numbers are a bit more promising (.315 xwOBA, 90 mph average exit velocity), at least. If he can just hold his own against lefties, Manzardo is one of the cheapest bets for 30-plus homers and 90-plus RBI out there, and there’s no reason to think he won’t at least get that opportunity to play everyday on this Guardians team.

Bust

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Nick Kurtz

ATH

Athletics

• #16

•

Age: 22

Fantasy Breakdown

ADP

Roto

Roto (1B)

H2H

H2H (1B)

2025 Stats

AVG

0.29

HR

R

RBI

SB

SO

151

He’s going to be good. He may even be great. There’s even a chance Kurtz is truly a generational talent. And that upside – 45 homers, 100-plus RBI, a good batting average – is worth chasing with a second-round pick. But the likeliest outcome is disappointment. Every rookie with an OPS north of 1.000 except for Ted Williams has regressed the following year, and that’s even true for Hall of Fame talents like Aaron Judge, who went four seasons without another 1.000 OPS after his rookie season. If Kurtz is “just” what Judge was over those four seasons, you’d be thrilled to have him on your team, of course, but Judge’s underlying numbers as a rookie were significantly better than Kurtz’s – .450 xwOBA vs. a .372 mark. Kurtz is one of the better bets for 40 homers in baseball, and he plays in a park that will only help him. But if he’s just Matt Olson, he’s probably a disappointment at this price. That’s an awfully high bar to clear.

2026 Draft Prep

First Base Top Prospects

1. Bryce Eldridge, 1B, Giants

Age (on opening day): 21
Where he played in 2025: Rookie, Double-A, Triple-A, majors
Minor league stats: .260 BA (384 AB), 25 HR, .843 OPS, 42 BB, 127 K
Major league stats: 3 for 28 (.107), 2 2B, 7 BB, 13 K
The 6-foot-7 Eldridge dents the ball whenever he makes contact with it, having delivered a Judgian 95.7 mph average exit velocity at Triple-A this past year, but he could stand to make more contact and may have been rushed to the majors during a lost 2025 season for the Giants. The scouting reports are bullish overall, but we’ll need to have patience for him as he learns to cover such a large strike zone.
Scott’s 2026 Fantasy impact: pencil him in

2. Sal Stewart, 1B, Reds

Age (on opening day): 22
Where he played in 2025: Double-A, Triple-A, majors
Minor league stats: .309 BA (437 AB), 20 HR, 17 SB, .907 OPS, 46 BB, 77 K
Major league stats: .255 BA (55 AB), 5 HR, .839 OPS, 3 BB, 15 K
Lingering beneath the bat-to-ball skills and line-drive approach that defined Stewart’s time in the lower minors was a hopeful slugger who broke through in a big way last year, delivering exit velocities on par with Corey Seager and Manny Machado at Triple-A before making his presence known in September. The Gavin Lux trade this offseason seemed to clear the path for him, too.
Scott’s 2026 Fantasy impact: pencil him in

3. Munetaka Murakami, 1B, White Sox

Age (on opening day): 26
Where he played in 2025: Japan
NPB stats: .286 BA (220 AB), 24 HR, 1.051 OPS, 38 BB, 71 K
The most decorated of this year’s Japanese imports, with his back-to-back MVP awards, Murakami has prodigious power that would play in any league, but contact issues severe enough that they could sink him against major league pitchers. The modest deal he signed with the White Sox should give everyone pause.
Scott’s 2026 Fantasy impact: pencil him in

4. Ralphy Velazquez, 1B, Guardians

Age (on opening day): 20
Where he played in 2025: High-A, Double-A
Minor league stats: .265 BA (483 AB), 22 HR, .839 OPS, 52 BB, 104 K
Velazquez won’t appear on every top 100, but the scouting reports have little negative to say about him, at least on the hitting side of things. He delivers top-of-the-scales exit velocities and manages to keep his strikeouts in check, even with an aggressive move up to Double-A midseason, where he slashed .330/.405/.589 in 28 games as a 20-year-old.
Scott’s 2026 Fantasy impact: late-season look

5. Charlie Condon, 1B, Rockies

Age (on opening day): 22
Where he played in 2025: Rookie, High-A, Double-A
Minor league stats: .268 BA (365 AB), 14 HR, .820 OPS, 52 BB, 112 K
While he was more productive than in the little bit we saw of him in 2024, Condon moved down the defensive spectrum again in 2025, hitting rock bottom at first base, and still wasn’t impacting the ball like you’d expect of a record-setting college slugger. He has a .376 on-base percentage to work with, though, and may fare better with the Rockies’ new analytically inclined front office, which plans to give him a long look this spring.
Scott’s 2026 Fantasy impact: fighting this spring