The top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder look to complete the four-game sweep when they visit the eighth-seeded Phoenix Suns in Game 4 of their Western Conference first-round playoff matchup on Monday night. Oklahoma City took a commanding 3-0 lead on Thursday with a 121-109 win. The Thunder (64-18), the defending NBA champions, are 31-10 on the road this season, including playoffs. The Suns (45-37), who finished second in the Pacific Division, are 26-17 on their home court, including the postseason. Jalen Williams (hamstring) is out for Oklahoma City.
Tipoff from Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix is set for 9:30 p.m. ET. The Thunder lead the all-time postseason series 15-13, and have won each of the past five playoff meetings. The Thunder are 10.5-point favorites in the just in Thunder vs. Suns odds from FanDuel Sportsbook, while the over/under for total points scored is 213.5. Before making any Suns vs. Thunder picks, check out the Thunder vs. Suns predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past eight-plus seasons. The model entered the second full week of the 2026 NBA playoffs on a sizzling 25-9 roll (74%) on top-rated NBA spread picks this season. Anyone following its NBA betting advice at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns.
Now, the model has simulated Thunder vs. Suns 10,000 times and just revealed its coveted NBA picks and betting predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NBA odds and NBA betting lines for Suns vs. Thunder:
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Thunder vs. Suns spread:
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Thunder -10.5 at FanDuel
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Thunder vs. Suns over/under:
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213.5 points
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Thunder vs. Suns money line:
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Thunder -498, Suns +376
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Thunder vs. Suns picks:
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See picks at SportsLine
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Thunder vs. Suns streaming:
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Top Thunder vs. Suns predictions
After 10,000 simulations of Thunder vs. Suns, SportsLine’s model is going Under on the total (213.5). The Under has hit in five of the last 10 Phoenix games. The Under has also hit in 27 of the last 44 Suns home games. The Under has also hit in 49 of the last 84 Phoenix games when allowing teams 102 or more points. The Thunder have allowed the second-fewest points in the NBA this season at 107.9, while the Suns were 26th in total offense, scoring 112.6 points per game.
The SportsLine model is projecting the Thunder to have just three players scoring in double digits, led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s 30.3 points. Devin Booker is projected to lead the Suns with 23.6 points scored, as just three Phoenix players will score 10 points or more. The teams are projected to combine for 213 total points as the Under has the value, making it a great selection for anybody targeting NBA parlay betting. See the Thunder vs. Suns spread pick at SportsLine, and you can bet the Under in Suns vs. Thunder at FanDuel here:
How to make Suns vs. Thunder picks
After simulating each possession of Thunder vs. Suns 10,000 times, the model also says one side of the spread hits over 50% of the time. You can head to SportsLine to see the model’s NBA picks.
So who wins Thunder vs. Suns, and which side of the spread hits in over 50% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to back, all from the model that has returned well over $10,000 on top-rated NBA picks, and find out.
