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Whew.
The buzzer on Michigan’s national championship win over UConn was just three weeks ago, but it’s been a 20-day sprint since the transfer portal opened the next morning, with more than 2,700 players leaving their school to find a new one — and only 10 of our top 100 transfers still available. The majority of power-conference programs have already completed much of their rebuilds, particularly at the top of their rosters.
While the focus has been on portal acquisitions, a common theme has emerged toward the top of our newest Way-Too-Early Top 25: Retention. Just look at the top five: Florida returns four starters and most of its rotation from an SEC championship team; Duke brings three starters back; Michigan retains two key guards; Illinois is expected to return five of its top eight scorers; and UConn will start three players with extensive experience in Storrs.
The dust hasn’t quite settled yet, but with the portal closing last Tuesday and the NBA early-entry deadline last Friday, it’s time to update our forecast for the 2026-27 men’s college basketball season.
(Note: We’ve projected players ranked in the top 25 of Jeremy Woo’s most recent NBA draft rankings to remain in it, and anyone after that to return to college.)
Previous ranking: 3
The Gators vaulted to No. 1 following the return of Thomas Haugh and Alex Condon, both of whom passed on the NBA draft to play in Gainesville for another year. And while Rueben Chinyelu has entered the NBA draft process, he is ultimately expected to return. That means Florida is likely to bring back the same frontcourt that won a national championship two seasons ago and is coming off an SEC title.
Kentucky transfer Denzel Aberdeen has committed to the Gators, too, but will need a waiver to play another season. If that happens, there’s not much of an argument for any other team to top these rankings.
Projected starting lineup
Boogie Fland (11.7 PPG)
Urban Klavzar (9.7 PPG)
Thomas Haugh (17.1 PPG))
Alex Condon (14.9 PPG)
Rueben Chinyelu (11.2 PPG)
Previous ranking: 2
Editor’s Picks
Duke’s depth looks unparalleled at this point in the offseason. While Cameron Boozer and Isaiah Evans are onto the NBA, the Blue Devils return Patrick Ngongba II and Dame Sarr, and Caleb Foster and Cayden Boozer opted to stay in Durham. That’s on top of the arrival of Wisconsin transfer John Blackwell, the best guard to enter the portal, and an elite recruiting class featuring three top-25 recruits.
Jon Scheyer’s team has fallen short in heartbreaking fashion two years in a row, but the pieces are in place for Duke to make another deep run.
Projected starting lineup
Caleb Foster (8.5 PPG)
John Blackwell (19.1 PPG at Wisconsin)
Dame Sarr (6.4 PPG)
Cameron Williams (No. 3 in SC Next 100)
Patrick Ngongba II (10.5 PPG)
Previous ranking: 1
The reigning national champions have reloaded in impressive fashion since a dominant run through the NCAA tournament. Elliot Cadeau and Trey McKenney — the latter of whom is arguably the top breakout candidate for next season — will be the offensive hubs on the perimeter, while five-star guard Brandon McCoy adds pop if the Wolverines don’t land Wake Forest transfer Juke Harris.
Up front, Dusty May added three transfers to help replace Aday Mara and Morez Johnson Jr.: Moustapha Thiam (Cincinnati), JP Estrella (Tennessee) and Jalen Reed (LSU).
Projected starting lineup
Elliot Cadeau (10.1 PPG)
Brandon McCoy (No. 18 in SC Next 100)
Trey McKenney (9.5 PPG)
J.P. Estrella (10.0 PPG at Tennessee)
Moustapha Thiam (12.8 PPG at Cincinnati)
Previous ranking: 8
Brad Underwood brings back essentially his entire frontcourt rotation, securing the return of David Mirkovic, Tomislav Ivisic, Zvonimir Ivisic and Jake Davis without much drama, and Andrej Stojakovic remains likely to return despite entering his name in the NBA draft at the deadline. Of course, the Illini also had to replace their starting backcourt with Keaton Wagler and Kylan Boswell moving on, but talented Providence transfer Stefan Vaaks and fast-rising top-30 recruit Quentin Coleman are viable options on the perimeter.
Projected starting lineup
Quentin Coleman (No. 30 in SC Next 100)
Stefan Vaaks (15.8 PPG at Providence)
Andrej Stojakovic (13.5 PPG)
David Mirkovic (13.6 PPG)
Tomislav Ivisic (10.2 PPG)
Previous ranking: 4
The Huskies bid farewell to program legend Alex Karaban and dominant NCAA tournament star Tarris Reed Jr., but Dan Hurley went into the portal to land replacements in Nikolas Khamenia (Duke) and Najai Hines (Seton Hall). Neither is a like-for-like replica of their predecessors, but they’re both immediate-impact starters. Projected first-round pick Braylon Mullins is forgoing the draft to return alongside Silas Demary Jr. and Jayden Ross on the perimeter, but there was also the stunning news that Solo Ball is taking a redshirt next season due to his lingering wrist injury.
Projected starting lineup
Silas Demary Jr. (10.6 PPG)
Braylon Mullins (12.0 PPG)
Jayden Ross (4.8 PPG)
Nikolas Khamenia (5.7 PPG at Duke)
Najai Hines (5.5 PPG at Seton Hall)
Previous ranking: 7
John Calipari will have to wait and see what Meleek Thomas opts to do with his NBA draft future, but Arkansas could have one of the elite backcourts in the country if Thomas decides to return to Fayetteville. Jordan Smith Jr., the best guard in the 2026 class, and high-scoring Georgia transfer Jeremiah Wilkinson are already in tow on the perimeter while Billy Richmond is expected to return despite going through the NBA draft process. Smith is one of four top-25 recruits, joined by five-star forwards JaShawn Andrews and Miikka Muurinen as well as four-star wing Abdou Toure.
Projected starting lineup
Jordan Smith (No. 2 in SC Next 100)
Jeremiah Wilkinson (17.4 PPG at Georgia)
Meleek Thomas (15.6 PPG)
Billy Richmond III (11.1 PPG)
Miikka Muurinen (five-star)
Previous ranking: 13
Sean Miller and the Longhorns had arguably the best portal class of any program in the country, landing two of the best transfers available in Colorado point guard Isaiah Johnson and TCU forward David Punch, along with top-100 options Mikey Lewis (Vanderbilt) and Elyjah Freeman (Auburn). Those arrivals combine with incoming top-20 guard Austin Goosby and returning center Matas Vokietaitis to form one of the most talented on-paper cores in college basketball. There could be some early growing pains, but Texas’ ceiling is incredibly high.
Projected starting lineup
Isaiah Johnson (16.9 PPG at Colorado)
Austin Goosby (No. 16 in SC Next 100)
Elyjah Freeman (9.2 PPG at Auburn)
David Punch (14.1 PPG at TCU)
Matas Vokietaitis (15.7 PPG)
Previous ranking: 20
The big questions for Alabama next season are whether Aden Holloway is back on the team and running the point for the Crimson Tide, and if Amari Allen opts to stay in the draft or return to Tuscaloosa. For now, we’ll project this team’s standing as if both are on the roster. There’s an intriguing mix of wing talent, with returnee London Jemison, NC State transfer Cole Cloer as well as top-25 recruits Jaxon Richardson and Qayden Samuels each offering different skill sets. Drew Fielder is a skilled stretch-4. Brandon Garrison and Jamarion Davis-Fleming will have to step up and provide consistency at the 5 spot.
Projected starting lineup
Aden Holloway (16.8 PPG)
Jaxon Richardson (No. 17 in SC Next 100)
Amari Allen (11.4 PPG)
Drew Fielder (14.7 PPG at Boise State)
Brandon Garrison (4.7 PPG at Kentucky)
Previous ranking: 6
Staying true to his view on retention and development, Tom Izzo is effectively bolstering last season’s roster with a few reinforcements to help replace big men Carson Cooper and Jaxon Kohler. Jeremy Fears Jr. will be a preseason All-American as one of the nation’s elite point guards, and there should be more offensive punch on the perimeter with Jordan Scott and Kur Teng taking a step, four-star Jasiah Jervis coming into the fold as well as Kaleb Glenn returning from injury. Charlotte transfer Anton Bonke will have to make an impact on the interior.
Projected starting lineup
Jeremy Fears Jr. (15.3 PPG)
Jordan Scott (5.9 PPG)
Kur Teng (7.5 PPG)
Coen Carr (12.0 PPG)
Cam Ward (5.2 PPG)
Previous ranking: 5
Arizona had a mix of impactful decisions at the early-entry deadline, with Koa Peat opting to go pro, and Motiejus Krivas and Ivan Kharchenkov heading back to Tucson. Peat’s expected departure means Tommy Lloyd will have to go find frontcourt reinforcements elsewhere, as the roster looks incredibly thin as it stands. One area the Wildcats are well-equipped is on the perimeter, where they landed point guards Derek Dixon (North Carolina) and JJ Mandaquit (Washington), and also welcome top-five recruit Caleb Holt.
Projected starting lineup
Derek Dixon (8.5 PPG at North Carolina)
Caleb Holt (No. 4 in SC Next 100)
Cameron Holmes (No. 50 in SC Next 100)
Ivan Kharchenkov (10.2 PPG)
Motiejus Krivas (10.4 PPG)
Previous ranking: Next in line
With all five starters from this past season’s team gone, Rick Barnes went into the portal and landed one of the best transfer classes in the country. There’s been a notable shift in focus, with the Volunteers adding a ton of offensive punch with the incoming group. Terrence Hill Jr. (VCU) torched North Carolina in the NCAA tournament; Jalen Haralson (Notre Dame) averaged 16.2 points as a freshman; Tyler Lundblade (Belmont) is a sharp 3-point shooter; and Dai Dai Ames (California) is a score-first lead guard. The key could be whether Barnes can get them all to buy in his usual brand of defense.
Projected starting lineup
Terrence Hill Jr. (15.0 PPG at VCU)
Dai Dai Ames (16.9 PPG at California)
Tyler Lundblade (15.6 PPG at Belmont)
Jalen Haralson (16.2 PPG at Notre Dame)
Miles Rubin (11.3 PPG at Loyola Chicago)
Previous ranking: 10
Kelvin Sampson lost four starters from yet another 30-win team, but the late-season form of Mercy Miller (three double-figure scoring outings in his final four games) and Chase McCarty (6.8 PPG and 47.2% from 3 in his final 10 games) provide optimism. There’s also the arrival of productive transfers Dedan Thomas Jr. from LSU and Delrecco Gillespie from Kent State, and top-40 recruits Arafan Diane and Ikenna Alozie. Joseph Tugler will once again be the anchor down low defensively, but Sampson will need Tugler to carry over his late-season offensive production (11.4 PPG in final nine games).
Projected starting lineup
Dedan Thomas Jr. (15.3 PPG at LSU)
Mercy Miller (5.2 PPG)
Chase McCarty (4.0 PPG)
Joseph Tugler (8.5 PPG)
Delrecco Gillespie (17.7 PPG at Kent State)
Previous ranking: 24
We’re projecting Vanderbilt as if Tyler Tanner, who entered the NBA draft last week, will ultimately be back in Nashville for another season. If Tanner does return, he’s likely a lock for preseason All-American after earning first-team All-SEC and All-Defensive team honors last season. Mark Byington also did a fantastic job in the portal, landing impact transfers like Ace Glass (Washington State), Sebastian Williams-Adams (Auburn), Bangot Dak (Colorado), Berke Buyuktuncel (Nebraska) and T.O. Barrett (Missouri). The only outstanding question is whether AK Okereke will receive a waiver for another year.
Projected starting lineup
Tyler Tanner (19.5 PPG)
T.O. Barrett (8.6 PPG at Missouri)
Ace Glass (16.4 PPG at Washington State)
Sebastian Williams-Adams (7.0 PPG at Auburn)
Bangot Dak (11.5 PPG at Colorado)
Previous ranking: 17
In terms of pure on-paper talent, there won’t be too many teams with more than USC next season. With Alijah Arenas expected to return, Eric Musselman will have five McDonald’s All-Americans from the last two classes. The Trojans have an elite incoming class featuring three high-level recruits, they added a pair of Big East transfers in KJ Lewis and Eric Reibe, and they’re bringing back three key contributors in Rodney Rice, Jacob Cofie and Arenas. How will all the pieces fit? There’s a lack of perimeter shooting and a lot of guys who will want shots, but it’s an incredibly intriguing group.
Projected starting lineup
Rodney Rice (20.3 PPG)
KJ Lewis (14.9 PPG at Georgetown)
Christian Collins (No. 5 in SC Next 100)
Jacob Cofie (9.9 PPG)
Eric Reibe (5.9 PPG at UConn)
Previous ranking: Unranked
The Cardinals have generated plenty of buzz with their portal class, particularly given that they landed two of the more sought-after players on the board a few days after the season ended in Kansas transfer Flory Bidunga and Oregon transfer Jackson Shelstad. Pat Kelsey has since built around that duo by adding powerful two-way wing Karter Knox from Arkansas, skilled forward Alvaro Folgueiras from Iowa and productive guard De’Shayne Montgomery from Dayton. Adrian Wooley also returns from this past season. It’s a key year for Kelsey, and he’s building a roster with that in mind.
Projected starting lineup
Jackson Shelstad (15.6 PPG at Oregon)
Adrian Wooley (8.7 PPG)
Karter Knox (8.1 PPG at Arkansas)
Alvaro Folgueiras (8.4 PPG at Iowa)
Flory Bidunga (13.3 PPG at Kansas)
Previous ranking: 18
After emerging as one of the biggest surprises in college basketball last season, Fred Hoiberg has another team that can win multiple games in March. The Cornhuskers quietly had one of the better portal hauls in the country, with Trevan Leonhardt (Utah Valley), Sam Orme (Belmont) and Boden Kapke (Boston College) all capable of pushing for starting jobs immediately. They also return first-team All-Big Ten selection Pryce Sandfort and Big Ten Sixth Man of the Year Braden Frager, who will once again be offensive catalysts for Nebraska.
Projected starting lineup
Trevan Leonhardt (11.9 PPG at Utah Valley)
Braden Frager (11.7 PPG)
Pryce Sandfort (17.9 PPG)
Sam Orme (12.7 PPG at Belmont)
Boden Kapke (10.6 PPG at Boston College)
Previous ranking: 9
Virginia’s overall roster is fairly barren, but Ryan Odom and the Cavaliers bring back four of their top six scorers and minute-getters from last season: Thijs De Ridder, Sam Lewis, Chance Mallory and Johann Grunloh. De Ridder was one of the best first-year players in the ACC in 2025-26, Lewis showed real potential as an offensive focal point late in the campaign, Mallory was a terrific point guard off the bench and Grunloh is a defensive anchor. Odom now needs to add on the wings to round out the lineup and add some depth.
Projected starting lineup
Chance Mallory (9.3 PPG)
Elijah Gertrude (1.7 PPG)
Sam Lewis (10.6 PPG)
Thijs De Ridder (15.6 PPG)
Johann Grunloh (7.1 PPG)
Previous ranking: 12
TJ Otzelberger is known to get his work done early on the recruiting trail, whether in the portal or at the high school level, and this spring was no different. The Cyclones welcomed five transfers on campus the first weekend after the season, and all five committed. There might not be the star power of Tamin Lipsey, Joshua Jefferson and Milan Momcilovic, but Killyan Toure is a two-way demon, Blake Buchanan returns as a starter, Jamarion Batemon showed real flashes, and Jaquan Johnson (Bradley), Leon Bond III (Northern Iowa), Tre Singleton (Northwestern) and Ryan Prather Jr. (Robert Morris) are all ready for a role.
Projected starting lineup
Jaquan Johnson (16.9 PPG at Bradley)
Killyan Toure (8.6 PPG)
Leon Bond III (11.9 PPG at Northern Iowa)
Tre Singleton (7.6 PPG at Northwestern)
Blake Buchanan (8.5 PPG)
Previous ranking: 11
Rick Pitino’s roster isn’t set just yet, but this is a bet on him, and that the Red Storm will add a couple more pieces. They’ve already landed British point guard Quinn Ellis, one of the best players coming to college basketball from Europe this offseason, and productive forward Donnie Freeman from Syracuse. Ian Jackson will need to be more consistent on the offensive end, while a step forward is needed from Ruben Prey. St. John’s is still in pursuit of talented Arizona State transfer Massamba Diop and will look for more wing options.
Projected starting lineup
Quinn Ellis (8.4 PPG for Olimpia Milano)
Ian Jackson (9.6 PPG)
Lefteris Liotopoulos (2.9 PPG)
Donnie Freeman (16.5 PPG at Syracuse)
Ruben Prey (4.1 PPG)
Previous ranking: 23
This ranking is well ahead of consensus when it comes to the Tigers’ early preseason ranking, but Dennis Gates has done a fantastic job of stockpiling talent at the top of the roster. Jason Crowe and Toni Bryant are five-star recruits, while Jamier Jones (Providence), Bryson Tiller (Kansas) and Jaylen Carey (Tennessee) bring a mix of proven production and high-ceiling upside to the rotation. Double-figure scorer Trent Pierce is also back in the lineup. There’s plenty of size and athleticism, and Crowe is the type of high-usage guard who can be an immediate game-changer.
Projected starting lineup
Jason Crowe (No. 7 in SC Next 100)
Jamier Jones (11.9 PPG at Providence)
Trent Pierce (10.4 PPG)
Toni Bryant (No. 14 in SC Next 100)
Bryson Tiller (7.9 PPG at Kansas)
Previous ranking: Next in line
Jai Lucas did a fantastic job in year one at Miami and has a roster to be even better in 2026-27. Villanova transfer Acaden Lewis has high-level two-way ability at the point guard spot while Georgia transfer Somto Cyril is a rim-protection force up front. Shelton Henderson took a step in the second half of last season and should be an all-conference performer, while five-star forward Caleb Gaskins and Robert Morris transfer DeSean Goode add strength and physicality. The lone missing piece at this point in the cycle might be consistent perimeter shooting.
Projected starting lineup
Acaden Lewis (12.2 PPG at Villanova)
Dante Allen (6.6 PPG)
Shelton Henderson (13.8 PPG)
Caleb Gaskins (No. 10 in SC Next 100)
Somto Cyril (9.3 PPG at Georgia)
Previous ranking: 14
Assuming the five-for-five eligibility rule doesn’t pass in the next few weeks, Matt Painter is set to move on from the Braden Smith-Fletcher Loyer-Trey Kaufman-Renn era in West Lafayette. (Note that only Smith and Loyer would be eligible to return if the rule passes.) Omer Mayer, C.J. Cox, Gicarri Harris, Jack Benter and Daniel Jacobsen are all ready for bigger roles and more responsibility, while there has been considerable hype around redshirt Antione West Jr. Princeton transfer Caden Pierce and a trio of SC Next 100 recruits give Painter plenty of options.
Projected starting lineup
Omer Mayer (5.5 PPG)
Antione West Jr. (redshirt)
C.J. Cox (8.5 PPG)
Caden Pierce (11.2 PPG at Princeton)
Daniel Jacobsen (5.8 PPG)
Previous ranking: 15
Josh Schertz is set to bring back three starters from a team that won 29 games and throttled Georgia in the first round of the NCAA tournament. The Billikens’ top two scorers, Robbie Avila and Dion Brown, are both gone, but the next five point producers — Trey Green, Amari McCottry, Kellen Thames, Ishan Sharma and Quentin Jones — are all returning. Schertz also went out and landed a pair of impact frontcourt transfers in Elijah Strong from South Carolina and Alon Michaeli from Colorado. A return to the Round of 32 certainly isn’t out of the question.
Projected starting lineup
Quentin Jones (9.1 PPG)
Trey Green (10.7 PPG)
Ishan Sharma (9.1 PPG)
Amari McCottry (10.5 PPG)
Elijah Strong (10.0 PPG at South Carolina)
Previous ranking: 21
After advancing past the first weekend of the NCAA tournament nine consecutive times, Gonzaga has been bounced in the second round of the dance in back-to-back seasons. Will 2027 be the year the Bulldogs get back to the Sweet 16? Braden Huff should be healthy and dominant once again, while Mario Saint-Supery returns to the run the point and Davis Fogle is prepared for a breakout season. The key will be the newcomers: European pro Jack Kayil, who is going through the NBA draft process; Houston transfer Isiah Harwell; and SC Next 100 recruit Luca Foster.
Projected starting lineup
Mario Saint-Supery (8.6 PPG)
Jack Kayil (12.0 PPG for ALBA Berlin)
Isiah Harwell (3.6 PPG at Houston)
Davis Fogle (8.6 PPG)
Braden Huff (17.8 PPG)
Previous ranking: Unranked
Darian DeVries completely changed his approach to roster construction and the transfer portal after one year in Bloomington, and the Hoosiers now have a squad that is seemingly better equipped to deal with the physicality, size and athleticism of high-major basketball. When healthy, Markus Burton is one of the best playmakers in the country, while Bryce Lindsay and Jaeden Mustaf offer a good balance of shooting and defense on the wings. Indiana made its post group a priority, and landed two of the better bigs in the portal in Aiden Sherrell and Samet Yigitoglu.
Projected starting lineup
Markus Burton (18.5 PPG at Notre Dame)
Bryce Lindsay (12.3 PPG at Villanova)
Jaeden Mustaf (10.4 PPG at Georgia Tech)
Aiden Sherrell (11.1 PPG at Alabama)
Samet Yigitoglu (10.7 PPG at SMU)
Next five
Iowa Hawkeyes
BYU Cougars
Ohio State Buckeyes
UCLA Bruins
Texas A&M Aggies
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