No. 23 Miami University is college basketball’s last unbeaten team, owns the longest win streak in MAC history and is off to the best start in MAC history. If the Redhawks (24-0, 11-0) take down Ohio on Friday night, they will extend their home winning streak to 29 games, which is neck and neck with Akron and Duke for the best active home winning streaks in college basketball. The Redhawks, Zips, and Blue Devils are all tied at 28 straight wins at home.
After cracking the AP poll for the first time since 1999 last month, Miami has held steady in the rankings during what’s become a storybook ride. Regardless of whether the Redhawks’ special season culminates in an NCAA Tournament appearance, this will go down as a year to remember. More people are talking about Miami basketball than ever before.
But of course, it would be a letdown if all this ended with Miami on the wrong side of the NCAA Tournament bubble as it seeks to reach the Big Dance for the first time since 2007. If the Redhawks want to avoid that potentially maddening fate, they have little margin for error. A loss at home to Ohio on Friday night could come with a significant drop in the all-important Wins Above Bubble (WAB) metric, which is one of the key points working in Miami’s favor.
WAB measures how many wins a team has on the season vs. how many wins an average bubble team would have vs. the same schedule.
A year ago, no team inside the top 40 of WAB was left out of the bracket on Selection Sunday. If the Redhawks keep winning, they’ll likely stay in the top 40 in WAB. If they lose even one game, they’ll likely slide outside the top 40 in WAB.
Here is a look ahead to this weekend’s games involving bubble teams. Among them is a “double bubble” showdown between TCU and Oklahoma State.
Check out the CBS Sports Bracketology model’s recent bracket at the Bracketology hub
All times ET
Bubble teams in action this weekend
Miami University
Entering the weekend: No. 11 seed (MAC autobid)
Friday vs. La Salle 9 p.m. (ESPN)
Losing at home to Ohio would be a Quad 4 WAB-killer that would inflict potentially irreparable harm on Miami’s slim at-large hopes. In terms of WAB value, this is projected to be the worst game left on the Redhawks’ schedule. With a loss, Miami would lose a projected 0.95 points in the WAB, according to wabwatch.com. That would translate to roughly a 10-spot drop in a metric that actually does a good job of advocating for the Redhawks.
Cal
Entering the weekend: Next Four Out
Saturday at Boston College | 12 p.m. (ACC Network)
The first leg of Cal’s northeastern ACC swing resulted in a 107-100 double-overtime loss at Syracuse. The defeat is clinging narrowly to Quad 1 status for now, but a loss at Boston College would be far more costly. Even on the road, facing the Eagles (9-15, 2-9 ACC) slots in as a Quad 3 affair for the Bears, who have dropped a whopping 16 spots at KenPom since briefly rising to No. 54 last week.
Oklahoma State
Entering the weekend: Next Four Out
Saturday vs. TCU | 12 p.m. (ESPN2)
The Oklahoma State wave quickly receded after an initial surge brought by a Feb. 4 win over BYU. Coming off a 37-point loss at Arizona and a Tuesday loss to Arizona State, the Cowboys need to get right. Home games against TCU on Saturday and Kansas on Wednesday will be challenging, but they are winnable games against quality opponents that could push the Pokes back in the right direction.
TCU
Entering the weekend: Last Four In
Saturday at Oklahoma State | 12 p.m. (ESPN2)
TCU edged Oklahoma State 68-65 in the first meeting on Jan. 20 as the Horned Frogs snapped out of a 1-4 start to Big 12 play. Beating the Cowboys was the beginning of a 4-2 stretch that could become a 5-2 stretch if TCU is able to complete a sweep. Tuesday’s upset of Iowa State adds to a Nov. 27 neutral-site win over Florida in demonstrating this team’s potential.
Texas A&M
Entering the weekend: Last Four in
Saturday at Vanderbilt | 1 p.m. (SEC Network)
Seeing Texas A&M among the Last Four in could understandably be jarring for Aggies fans who saw their team atop the SEC standings earlier this month. First-year coach Bucky McMillan is doing great work, but the Aggies have ended up on the wrong side of too many close games, and that has dinged up their resume a bit. While predictive metrics such as a No. 35 KenPom ranking are still in A&M’s favor, a No. 45 WAB ranking tells us A&M is losing its margin for error.
Virginia Tech
Entering the weekend: First Four Out
Saturday vs. Miami | 4 p.m. (ESPN2)
Virginia Tech’s 76-66 win at Clemson on Wednesday is worth significantly more in WAB than any other victory amassed by the Hokies (17-8, 6-6 ACC) this season. A home loss to Florida State would give it all back. That’s basically the story for the rest of Virginia Tech’s season, as there are should-win home games of little value (FSU, Wake Forest and Boston College) alternating with high-end road showdowns with lots of value (Miami, North Carolina and Virginia).
VCU
Entering the weekend: First Four Out
Saturday vs. Richmond | 6 p.m. (CBS Sports Network)
VCU has won eight in a row, but its at-large chances might all come down to whether it can pull a road upset of Saint Louis on Feb. 20. In the meantime, it faces a crosstown rivalry showdown with a Richmond team that just snapped out of a six-game losing streak by pulling an upset of Atlantic 10 stalwart George Mason. The Rams cannot take this one lightly.
Ohio State
Entering the weekend: First Four Out
Saturday vs. Virginia | 8 p.m. (FOX)
Ohio State finally has a Quad 1 win. Of course, it’s not because of some new victory the Buckeyes picked up. It’s because their Dec. 6 victory at Northwestern now counts as a Quad 1 victory based on where the Wildcats stand in the NET (for now, anyway). Beating Virginia on a neutral floor would give Ohio State the sort of resume boost it needs to pair with a predictive analytics profile hovering around 40th nationally.
Missouri
Entering the weekend: Last Four In
Saturday vs. Texas | 8:30 p.m. (ESPN2)
Missouri squeaked out an 86-85 win at Texas A&M on Wednesday to reach 17-7 (7-4 SEC). A year ago, winning even just six SEC games was good enough for guaranteed NCAA Tournament admission. But the league isn’t as strong this year, and the Tigers have a ton of ground to make up after playing a horrible non-conference schedule.
San Diego State
Entering the weekend: First Four Out
Saturday vs. Nevada | 10 p.m. (CBS Sports Network)
San Diego State’s next six games are projected as either Quad 2 or Quad 1 opportunities, which offer the Aztecs a chance to leave a late impression. If this team misses the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2019, it will look back and rue a Nov. 18 double-overtime home loss to Troy. Overcoming that Quad 3 defeat without any high-end victories to tout is going to require significant win volume from SDSU.
Saint Mary’s
Entering the weekend: Last Four In
Saturday at Pacific | 10:30 p.m. (ESPN2)
If Saint Mary’s makes the Big Dance as an at-large team, it may want to consider writing a thank-you note to Virginia Tech. A victory over the Hokies from Nov. 27 in the Battle 4 Atlantis is doing overtime in propping up the Gaels’ resume. If the Hokies keep rising in the NET, it could result in Saint Mary’s finally having a Quad 1 win. But even with a whopping 17 combined Quad 3/4 victories filling their ledger, the Gaels still rate as a top-40 team in metrics used by the committee.
Seton Hall
Entering the weekend: Next Four Out
Sunday at Butler | 6 p.m. (FS1)
Seton Hall has been fading, and that’s a shame because this team could be America’s team in the NCAA Tournament. Head coach Shaheen Holloway — formerly of Saint Peter’s lore — gets his team to play lockdown defense, and the Pirates have one of the sport’s most fun point guards in the undersized Adam “Budd” Clark. Losing here would be unadvisable in what’s shaping up as a fringe Quad 1/2 game.
