Earlier this year, trainer Bob Baffert called Litmus Test his top contender for the 2026 Kentucky Derby. But after a third-place finish in the Rebel Stakes and a woeful seventh place finish in the Arkansas Derby, Litmus Test has failed to live up to Baffert’s expectations. Yet, on Saturday, this $875,000 purchase will be in the starting gate for the first leg of the Triple Crown with a longshot’s chance to earn his trainer his seventh blanket of roses. Bet Litmus Test and the entire Kentucky Derby at TwinSpires, where new users who click through our links get a supersized $400 sign-up bonus:
4 Litmus Test (50-1)
- Trainer: Bob Baffert
- Jockey: Martin Garcia
- Last race: Seventh in the Arkansas Derby by 12½ lengths
- Career record: 7 starts: 2 wins, 2 thirds
- Career earnings: $477,688
- Best career Beyer Speed Figure: 96 (Los Alamitos Futurity)
- Sire: Nyquist
Below, we’ll dig further into Litmus Test as part of our series profiling all the horses competing in the 152nd Kentucky Derby on Saturday, May 2. We’ll look back into his past performances, what questions need to be answered Saturday and analyze how the post draw affects his chances.
Now that you know who’s in the field, you’ll want to know how to bet the Kentucky Derby on the top horse racing betting apps. FanDuel Racing offers a $25 bonus with a $5 bet. Claim it here:
What to know about Litmus Test
This Bob Baffert trainee was one of the best juveniles last year. And after he closed out 2025 with a victory in the Los Alamitos Futurity, a performance that earned him a solid 96 Beyer Speed Figure, Litmus Test seemed poised to be Baffert’s best chance to win the Kentucky Derby for a seventh time.
But 2026 began strangely. Baffert entered the colt in the Southwest Stakes and then scratched him from the race, saying he never intended to run him there. Then Baffert targeted the San Felipe Stakes, but the horse didn’t make that race either. Litmus Test finally made his debut in the Rebel Stakes and finished a dull third, losing by more than 5 lengths. He stayed at Oaklawn Park for the Arkansas Derby and staggered home in seventh (out of eight), more than 12 lengths behind winner Renegade.
That seemed to be the end of the horse’s Derby run, but the connections decided to give him a chance to run for the roses. The question is Why?
Has the horse suddenly turned things around? Last week he turned in a sharp five-furlong workout from the gate in 59 seconds, which Baffert praised. Baffert working the horse from the gate and putting blinkers back on Litmus Test say all you need to know: Litmus Test is going to the front. His past efforts, however, suggest that the 1 1/4 miles of the Derby will be beyond his best distance.
But Baffert has won this race a record-tying six times (excluding 2021 when Medina Spirit was disqualified), including with multiple speed horses who, like Litmus Test, were dismissed because of perceived distance limitations. Those horses, however, entered the race with much better form than Litmus Test, who will be a big longshot at FanDuel Racing, TwinSpires and 1/ST BET. Claim our jumbo-sized 1/ST BET offer here to get a $500 sign-up bonus:
Post draw analysis
Litmus Test drew the No. 4 post. That makes him the innermost speed and forces jockey Martin Garcia to go. Note: Garcia has a history of antics at the starting gate. In the the 2014 Breeders’ Cup Classic, his mount, Bayern, came in on Shared Belief at the start, eliminating that one’s chances of winning. And in last year’s Kentucky Derby, Garcia, aboard Citizen Bull, took a right turn immediately after leaving the starting gate, causing a chain reaction that almost took out favored Journalism. Garcia’s actions at the start could play a huge role in determining who wins the race.
