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Music & methods – why Forest could be Europa League favouritesImage source, Getty ImagesImage caption, Winning the Europa League was one of Nottingham Forest’s targets in pre-seasonByNick Mashiter
Can two-time European champions Nottingham Forest end Aston Villa‘s trophy ambitions to chase their own dreams?
Forest host their fellow Premier League side in the first leg of their Europa League semi-final on Thursday as both sides look to end major trophy droughts stretching decades.
Forest, winners of the European Cup back in 1979 and 1980, have battled relegation all season, with Vitor Pereira their fourth boss since September.
Villa are on the brink of sealing a top-five spot in the Premier League and qualifying for next season’s Champions League, having won the old version of the latter competition themselves back in 1982.
But after injuries and a mid-season drop in form, Unai Emery’s Villa side have shown their frailties recently and there is belief at the City Ground that Forest can prevail after an eight-match unbeaten run.
Braga or Freiburg await in the final in Istanbul on 20 May, so after Forest’s recent revival and Villa’s stumble in the second half of the season, are Pereira’s men now favourites to triumph in the all-English tie?
Forest thrash Sunderland to boost survival hopes
Forest, without a major trophy since 1990, are third in the Premier League form table for their past six games – behind Manchester City and Brighton – having scored 15 goals, including Friday’s 5-0 thumping of Sunderland.
Nine of the goals have come in the past two games – comprehensive wins over Burnley and the Black Cats which should provide the platform for survival.
West Ham and Tottenham’s late winners on Saturday ensured there is still work to do in the run-in – and Pereira has underlined the Premier League is the priority – but there is an expectation that Forest will beat the drop.
Five points above third-bottom Tottenham with four games left, that breathing space could allow Forest to take the handbrake off against Villa and confidence has grown since Pereira arrived in February.
The players never bought into former boss Sean Dyche’s philosophy. When the Portuguese replaced him, he pinpointed two key issues – a lack of confidence in their own ability and a lack of identity on the pitch – although not really unexpected with three previous managers in a troubled season.
Pereira felt the first job was to restore confidence in the group – the majority who finished seventh in the league last season – and introduce a style which suited the squad’s qualities.
The players responded well, embraced the changes and met the high standards in training, which included music being played.
Pereira plays music – and allows the players to choose – in the final session before a game, which is something he has done at previous clubs.
He uses it during the warm-up with the aim to reduce tension and boost energy, allowing the players to go into the game with the right mindset.
Pereira likes his own music though, mostly from the 1980s, and would play it loudly to himself in his office at former club Wolves’ Compton training ground.
He kept Wolves up last season, having taking over when they were in the bottom three before leaving in November, and wants to control games and tempo with possession.
The Portuguese likes a compact team, able to exploit the opposition. In the eight league games under him, Forest have conceded eight goals, with the fifth best defence in their last six.
In a clear picture of how the style has changed under Pereira, open-play crosses have dropped by 31% and deep crosses have gone down 29%, but shots from through-balls have gone up 31%.
They are now creating 30% more big chances under Pereira, who will take charge of his 50th European game, and converting 75% more of them.
The style change has also helped inspire Morgan Gibbs-White’s impressive form, with the 26-year-old scoring nine goals in 14 games since the former Porto and Fenerbahce boss arrived in February and boosting his outside chance of making England’s World Cup squad.
The midfielder’s hopes could be further enhanced if he helped Forest lift the Europa League next month, a competition which has been a target since the start of the season.
Their form in Europe underlines that too as Forest have accumulated the best xG (27.8) in the competition, having taken 414 touches in the opposition box in their 14 games, with 23 of their 88 shots on target finding the back of the net.
Only Serie A side Bologna, who were knocked out in the quarter-finals by Villa, beat Forest in each of those three categories, while striker Igor Jesus is the competition’s seven-goal joint top scorer.
So what about Villa?
They have steadily improved since the return of Youri Tielemans and John McGinn. The midfield pair had been out injured since February and made their comebacks either side of last month’s international break.
Without them, and Boubacar Kamara – who suffered a season-ending knee injury against Tottenham in January – they have struggled.
It is just 16 points from 14 league games since a 3-1 home win over Forest in January and that Villa remain in fifth place owes much to the failings of others.
Chelsea have floundered and could finish in the bottom half of the table – having moved to within three points of Villa with a 4-1 win at Villa Park in March – while Liverpool only overhauled Emery’s men on Saturday.
Opta’s predicted table had Villa finishing 12th and, currently fifth, they are the biggest overachievers of the season ahead of Sunderland.
Villa’s 47 goals are the lowest of the top six, just below Brighton’s 48, and their 434 shots are also the fewest of the Champions League chasers, with Liverpool top with 528.
Their xG of 42.83 is only marginally better than strugglers West Ham (40.50) and Forest’s 39.23, and Villa have only had 11 more shots on target in the Premier League than Thursday’s hosts this season.
Emery, though, is in his seventh Europa League semi-final and chasing a fifth title in the competition, but understands exactly what stands in his way as Villa target a first major trophy since the League Cup in 1996.
The Spaniard mentioned: “He (Pereira) did a fantastic job at Wolverhampton and football is like that, sometimes even doing very good work, one or two months can change everything.
“Now he’s doing a fantastic job at Nottingham Forest, but he has experience and the Portuguese coaches, normally when I face them, they are very competitive. Pereira is a fantastic coach.”
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