Ohio State’s long pursuit of a Quad 1 victory endured another frustrating twist Sunday when the Buckeyes lost 66-60 at Michigan State after spending most of the second half within striking distance of a potential season-shifting win. After dropping to 0-9 in Quad 1 opportunities, Ohio State is back on the wrong side of the bubble in the CBS Sports Bracketology model.
The battered Buckeyes are one of four Big Ten teams living on the edge with just two weeks left in the regular season. Between the No. 10 seed line and the “Next Four Out” are UCLA (10), USC (First Four Out), Indiana (First Four Out) and Ohio State (Next Four Out).
No one stumbled harder over the weekend than USC, which suffered a Quad 3 home loss to Oregon. Even with leading scorer Chad Baker-Mazara back from a three-game injury absence, the Trojans couldn’t hang on to a late lead. After entering the weekend as a No. 10 seed in CBS Sports Bracketology, USC now has some ground to make up heading into Tuesday night’s rivalry showdown at UCLA.
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More on the Big Ten’s bubble teams in a moment. But first, here’s a look at the NCAA Tournament bubble from the CBS Sports Bracketology model.
Last Four In
Santa Clara
New Mexico
TCU
Cal
First Four Out
VCU
Ohio State
USC
Indiana
Next Four Out
Seton Hall
Virginia Tech
San Diego State
Arizona State
Check out the CBS Sports Bracketology model’s recent bracket at the Bracketology hub
NCAA Tournament bubble spotlight
Ohio State’s injuries
Ohio State guard John Mobley Jr. missed his third straight game on Sunday in the Buckeyes’ loss at Michigan State. The star sophomore is dealing with a hand injury, and Ohio State is now 1-2 without its second-leading scorer. Third-leading scorer Devin Royal also missed the game due to illness, while freshman forward Amare Bynum played ineffectively through illness.
Rotation forward Brandon Noel has been out since Jan. 5 with a lower leg injury. The myriad health issues will give the NCAA Tournament selection committee something to ponder when evaluating Ohio State, but cracking the field of 68 without a single Quad 1 win would be tough. Fortunately for Ohio State, it has projected “Quad 1A” at Iowa and against Purdue up next. They will be big tests, but they are also big opportunities.
Indiana’s divisive resume
Indiana’s resume can be interpreted in a variety of ways. An easy argument for the Hoosiers is that they have three victories over projected NCAA Tournament teams over the past month, including wins over Purdue, UCLA and Wisconsin. While those victories came by a combined seven points — two of them requiring overtime — they are are evidence of this team’s ability.
But the grim reality is that IU is just 4-10 across Quad 1 and Quad 2. That is fewer Quad 1/2 victories than anyone else in the top 50 of the NET aside from Miami (Ohio). The average of Indiana’s results-based metrics is hovering in the mid-40s, which is risky territory. Its predictive metrics average out in the mid 30s, which is encouraging. But the Hoosiers are down to No. 41 at KenPom after losing to Illinois and Purdue by a combined 49 points in their past two outings.
UCLA’s big win
Whether it’s coach Mick Cronin garnering headlines for his unique antics or UCLA winding up in dramatic games, the Bruins always seem to make things interesting. The roller coaster ride took a good turn over the weekend, though. A thrilling 95-94 overtime victory over Illinois on Saturday ensured the Bruins’ spot on the right side of the bubble entering the last week of February.
Wins over Purdue and Illinois came at home by a combined three points, but they are evidence that UCLA at its best is a high-ceiling team.
