Ohio State and UCLA are inching toward Selection Sunday in similar positions, as both need to fortify their resumes in order to feel confident that their names will be called when the field of 68 is revealed. That’s why Tuesday night is so important for both.
The Buckeyes are hosting No. 24 Wisconsin while UCLA is playing at No. 15 Michigan State in a couple of Big Ten showdowns that will impact the bubble picture. Beating the Badgers still won’t bring Ohio State’s first Quad 1 victory, but it would give the Buckeyes a third victory over a team currently projected in the field by the CBS Sports Bracketology model.
UCLA has two Quad 1 victories, but its only win over a team in the projected field came against Purdue on Jan. 20. The Bruins are coming off an 86-56 loss at Michigan and could use a pick-me-up before they return to Los Angeles to host a potent Illinois team on Saturday.
Tuesday night is loaded with huge games featuring bubble implications across the national landscape. From the mid-major ranks to the Big Ten and the SEC and places in between, there’s something at stake in gyms across the country. Here’s the full rundown in this edition of the bubble watch.
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David Cobb
Check out the CBS Sports Bracketology model’s just in bracket at the Bracketology hub
All times ET
Bubble teams in action Tuesday
Miami University
at UMass 7 p.m. (ESPN+)
Entering the day: No. 11 seed (via autobid)
Game status: Quad 3
Four of Miami University’s final six regular season games are on the road. Of those four, this one is the toughest. UMass (15-11, 6-7 MAC) has won four straight at home, and the Minutemen own also own victories over ACC foes Florida State and Boston College. For more on how much (or how little) margin for error the Redhawks have, check out this piece.
TCU
at UCF 7 p.m. (ESPN+)
Entering the day: Last Four In
Game status: Quad 1
TCU has won three straight and five of its last seven to recover from a 1-4 start to Big 12 play and reach a level 6-6 in conference action. The stretch includes a win over No. 6 Iowa State, which adds to a collection of wins that also includes No. 12 Florida and No. 24 Wisconsin. If not for a season-opening home loss to New Orleans that is killing its resume, TCU would have far more breathing room.
VCU
vs. George Washington 8 p.m. (CBS Sports Network)
Entering the day: First Four Out
Game status: Quad 3
Neutral site November victories over South Florida and Virginia Tech are close to being considered Quad 1 wins. But for now, VCU is 0-4 in Q1 opportunities. That could change Friday night when VCU travels to face No. 18 Saint Louis in an Atlantic 10 blockbuster. First, the Rams must contend with a capable George Washington team that is coming off a 19-point win over a quality George Mason squad.
Virginia Tech
at Miami 8 p.m. (ACC Network)
Entering the day: Next Four Out
Game status: Quad 1
Virginia Tech picked up a massive Quad 1 A win at Clemson last week and then promptly gave back all that ground with a Quad 3 home loss to Florida State. So, here we are again with the Hokies heading on the road against a quality opponent with something to prove. If last week’s sequence becomes a trend, Virginia Tech will win this game and then lose at home to Wake Forest on Saturday.
UCLA
at No. 15 Michigan State 8:30 p.m. (NBC Sports Network)
Entering the day: No. 10 seed
Game status: Quad 1
For a team with a respectable 17-8 (9-5 Big Ten) record in a rugged league, UCLA’s resume is weirdly bland. The Bruins have just one victory over a team currently projected in the NCAA Tournament field. Taking down Michigan State on the road would be the sort of season-defining result that would make the home stretch less stressful. But it will take a much better effort than what the Bruins put forth in a 30-point loss at Michigan on Saturday.
Ohio State
vs. No. 24 Wisconsin 8:30 p.m. (FS1)
Entering the day: First Four Out
Game status: Quad 2
Even a home win over Wisconsin might not be enough to end Ohio State’s quest for a Quad 1 victory. With the Badgers hovering around the low 30s in NET, this one will be right on the cut line. The Buckeyes rate as a top-40 team in predictive metrics, but they need to put some meat on their resume. While this one may not technically check the “Quad 1” box, it would still bring a projected 5-7 spot leap in Ohio State’s Wins Above Bubble ranking, which currently sits in the high 40s. That would be huge.
New Mexico
vs. Air Force 9 p.m. (Mountain West Network)
Entering the day: First Four Out
Game status: Quad 4
Playing Air Force (3-22, 0-14 Mountain West) brings absolutely no benefit to Mountain West bubble teams. New Mexico is expected to add a laughable 0.01 to its Wins Above bubble metric with a win, and it will have to win by a wide margin to avoid falling in some of the predictive metrics that appear on its NCAA team sheet.
Georgia
at Kentucky 9 p.m. (ESPN)
Entering the day: No. 11 seed
Game status: Quad 1
Georgia has dropped five of its past six games, turning a once-promising season into a tense bubble ride. Four of those losses have come by 15+ points, which suggests the Bulldogs are legitimately reeling and not just dealing with the ebbs and flows of a rough schedule. Against that backdrop, they head to Rupp Arena, where they have not won since 2009. Everything is fine! (It’s not fine).
San Diego State
vs. Grand Canyon, 10 p.m. (CBS Sports Network)
Entering the day: Last Four In
Game status: Quad 3
This is a revenge spot for San Diego State, which took a 70-69 loss at Grand Canyon on Jan. 21. The Aztecs are right on the cut line and can’t afford a fringe Quad 2/3 loss. Falling here would send the Aztecs plummeting to around 50th in Wins Above Bubble, which is on the outer fringes of at-large territory in that vitally important resume metric.
