No. 3 Duke’s 68-63 win over No. 1 Michigan sent the Blue Devils surging to the No. 1 overall spot in CBS Sports Bracketology entering the final week of February. The Wolverines dropped back to the No. 2 overall seed following a tight, neutral-site loss that would likely serve as a tie-breaking mechanism for two teams that are close in the metrics employed by the selection committee.
Michigan is still No. 1 in the NET, at KenPom and in Wins Above Bubble (WAB), which is a vital resume metric used by the committee. But Duke’s 13 Quad 1 wins stack up impressively next to Michigan’s haul of nine. And in a case where there is so little separating two teams with identical records and comparable metrics, this committee would likely fall back on what it saw Saturday.
Arizona is running as the No. 3 overall seed after an impressive road win at Houston. Just like Michigan and Duke, the Wildcats are also 25-2 overall and alone in first place in their conference. But it would likely take a loss from Michigan or Duke for the Wildcats to rise since Arizona sits at third in most team sheet metrics.
UConn rounds out the No. 1 seed line coming out of Saturday’s action after the Huskies picked up a Quad 1 road win at Villanova. The Huskies’ 73-63 road win over a projected tournament team came amid losses for Houston and Iowa State, who are the other top challengers for the fourth No. 1 seed.
Bracketology top seeds
Check out the full field of 68 at the CBS Sports Bracketology hub.
Following committee’s logic
During Saturday’s March Madness bracket preview show on CBS, selection committee chair Keith Gill cited Iowa State’s head-to-head win over Houston as part of the reason why the Cyclones got the nod as the final No. 1 seed. While ISU’s Saturday night loss at BYU has already altered the picture, it was an insightful comment.
There are no hard principles about how the committee is supposed to interpret head-to-head results. A year ago, Auburn edged Duke and Florida for the No. 1 overall seed despite having more overall losses and head-to-head losses against both. Additionally, both Duke and Florida won their conference tournaments while Auburn did not.
2025 Auburn maintained a wide enough lead in Wins Above Bubble (WAB) and in sheer volume of Quad 1 victories that the Tigers were able to overcome those head-to-head defeats and be the top team in the bracket.
But if head-to-head results are valued by this year’s committee in a situation where teams are clustered together in the seeding pool, then Kansas should still be a No. 3 seed over Texas Tech today. Though KU suffered a historic home loss against Cincinnati on Saturday, the Jayhawks still rate better in results-based metrics. They also own a 64-61 win at Texas Tech that came when the Red Raiders still had star forward JT Toppin. As a result, Kansas has a narrow lead on Texas Tech, for now, in the race for the final No. 3 seed.
Could Florida be nearing a breakthrough?
After being named the top No. 3 seed in Saturday’s bracket preview, Florida remains a force to be reckoned with in the pursuit of a No. 2 seed. The Gators (21-6, 12-2 SEC) won their seventh straight game on Saturday at Ole Miss and rate No. 5 at KenPom, which is a predictive analytics metric used by the selection committee to evaluate teams. Following a slow start to the 2025-26 season, Florida still lags back at No. 13 in WAB, which is a vital resume-based metric.
But no one in the national-title race has improved as much over the course of the season as the Gators, who are chomping at Illinois’ heels for the final No. 2 seed. The Illini (22-6, 13-4 Big Ten) have dropped three of their last five games — all in overtime — following Saturday’s 95-94 loss at UCLA.
