When Texas guard Jordan Pope converted a layup to give the Longhorns a 64-61 lead out of the under-8 media timeout in the second half of Wednesday night’s game against Florida, it appeared the Gators were headed for a fight to the finish. That would have been a rarity for a Florida team that has largely rolled through its SEC schedule.
But what happened next illustrated why the Gators are trending up to the No. 2 seed line in CBS Sports Bracketology and why they should be feared as a legitimate contender to repeat as national champions. Florida closed on a 23-7 run, needing just three minutes to turn its deficit into a 10-point lead in what became an 84-71 victory. It was a stretch of nearly perfect basketball that should serve as a warning shot to the rest of college basketball.
The Gators are coming. Florida’s weakness for much of the season has been lackluster 3-point shooting. It has generally made up for it with elite offensive rebounding, interior dominance and great defense. But now the Gators’ 3-point shooting is coming along.
After hitting 10 or more 3-pointers just twice in their first 23 games, the Gators have done it three times in their past five games. Last night’s 8 of 18 mark didn’t blow the doors off of Texas, but the 44.4% clip showed how much more accurate the Gators are getting from deep. With Princeton transfer Xaivian Lee starting to find his range, Florida is close to firing on all cylinders.
Here is the breakdown of the top seeds in CBS Sports Bracketology, followed by a rundown of which teams are trending up and which teams are trending down.
Bracketology top seeds
Check out the full field of 68 at the CBS Sports Bracketology hub.
Note: Wins Above Bubble (WAB) is a vital resume-based metric used by the NCAA Tournament selection committee. For an explanation of WAB, check out this article.
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Florida
CBS Sports Bracketology: No. 2 seed
WAB rank: 7
KenPom rank: 5
Florida had been knocking on the No. 2 seed door for a week or so, and the Gators finally busted it down with an 84-71 win at Texas on Wednesday night. Now the question is whether there’s enough runway left for Florida to creep into the No. 1 seed conversation. At 22-6 (13-2 SEC) and with 13 wins in their past 14 games, the Gators finally have top-eight results-based metrics to pair with top-five predictive metrics. The push for a repeat is in full swing.
Virginia
CBS Sports Bracketology: No. 3 seed
WAB rank: 13
KenPom rank: 14
Virginia is on a nine-game winning streak entering Saturday’s showdown at Duke and was recently promoted to No. 3 seed status following a 29-point beatdown of NC State. First-year coach Ryan Odom has an elite rebounding and shot-blocking team that also shoots it well from 3-point range. At 13-3 in Quads 1 and 2, Virginia is well-fortified. Beating the Blue Devils on the road would make another rise possible.
UCF
CBS Sports Bracketology: No. 8 seed
WAB rank: 25
KenPom rank: 46
UCF started February on a three-game losing streak but has since recovered with three straight wins. Among them was an impressive 97-84 road shellacking of BYU. The Knights are strong in results-based metrics, averaging out at 24th in those. Where they have lagged all season is in predictive metrics, such as KenPom and Torvik. But at 20-7 (9-6 Big 12) and coming off a big road win, coach Johnny Dawkins has his club in great shape.
Saint Mary’s
CBS Sports Bracketology: No. 10 seed
WAB rank: 27
KenPom rank: 24
Even after a pivotal 86-67 drubbing of Santa Clara on Wednesday night, Saint Mary’s continues to have a strange resume. The win is technically outside of Quad 1, so the Gaels remain 0-3 in Q1 opportunities as of Thursday. But they are 8-1 in Quad 2 and are averaging out as a top-30 team across selection metrics, which is comfortably in at-large territory. They will head into Saturday’s regular-season finale against Gonzaga on a seven-game winning streak.
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Auburn
CBS Sports Bracketology: No. 10 seed
WAB rank: 42
KenPom rank: 37
Auburn stopped its five-game losing streak against Kentucky on Saturday before resuming the slide Tuesday on the road against an Oklahoma team that won’t be going dancing. Home games against Ole Miss and LSU over the next five days are must-wins for the Tigers, who are 15-13 (6-9 SEC). How could a team with such a bad record even be considered for the Big Dance, you ask? By playing the nation’s toughest schedule and earning wins over St. John’s, NC State, Arkansas, Florida and Kentucky. Great as those victories are, Auburn should still be worried after losing six of seven games.
Clemson
CBS Sports Bracketology: No. 10 seed
WAB rank: 38
KenPom rank: 41
This Clemson team is starting to resemble the 2023 team that started 18-4 before falling apart and missing the NCAA Tournament. After suffering a 70-65 home loss against Florida State on Saturday, the Tigers have dropped four straight and are sitting at 20-8 (10-5 ACC) with games against Louisville and North Carolina up next. If the slide continues against the Cardinals and Tar Heels, the ACC Tournament could be very uncomfortable.
Indiana
CBS Sports Bracketology: Next Four Out
WAB rank: 49
KenPom rank: 43
Indiana got shellacked on the road by Illinois and Purdue, which is understandable. What’s less forgivable is losing at home to Northwestern when your tournament hopes are hanging in the balance. That’s what the Hoosiers did on Tuesday while producing just one second-chance point against a bad rebounding opponent. One potential saving grace is that IU will be well-rested when Michigan State comes to town for a huge game on Sunday. Meanwhile, the Spartans will be coming off a Thursday night road game against a great Purdue team with significantly less rest.
USC
CBS Sports Bracketology: Next Four Out
WAB rank: 47
KenPom rank: 59
Eric Musselman seemed like the perfect hire for USC two years ago after he spent five seasons breathing life back into Arkansas. But the Trojans are now flirting with going 0 for 2 on reaching the NCAA Tournament under his direction as they enter a Saturday road game against Nebraska. USC has dropped four straight and is now just 18-10 (7-10 Big Ten). The Trojans’ results-based metrics are hovering on the outer edge of at-large territory, but their predictive metrics have cratered over the past two months. That suggests a big turnaround is likely not in store.
