Bracketology: SEC leads bid race; Big Ten, Big 12 hogging top spots in projected NCAA Tournament field
The race for conference supremacy in the Big Dance is tight during the last week of February
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The race to see which conference will place the most teams in the 2026 NCAA Tournament is coming down to the wire as Selection Sunday looms less than three weeks away. While the SEC currently leads the pack 11 teams in the CBS Sports Bracketology field, the picture is evolving and prone to change over the last week of February.
This week’s bubble activity will be particularly interesting in the Big Ten. The league has just eight teams in the current field but has three knocking on the door from within the “First Four Out,” which means it’s plausible the conference could catch the SEC in sheer number of bids.
The ACC and Big 12 are also still in the mix with nine and eight tournament teams, respectively, in Tuesday’s field of 68 from the CBS Sports Bracketology model. Lagging notably behind the pack from within the high-major ranks is the Big East, which has three teams in the field.
When it comes to conference supremacy in the bracket, there is far more to the discussion than just bids, though. It’s also about where your teams are seeded. That debate is all about the Big Ten and Big 12, each of which have five teams in the top 16 within our model.
More on the conference breakdown in a moment. First, let’s check at how things stand at the top of the bracket.
Check out the full field of 68 at the CBS Sports Bracketology hub.
Currently in the CBS Sports Bracketology field (11): Florida (3), Alabama (4), Vanderbilt (5), Tennessee (5), Arkansas (5), Kentucky (7), Georgia (8), Auburn (9), Texas (9), Texas A&M (10), Missouri (11)
Bubbly: No one within striking distance
Outside of the 11 SEC teams currently in the CBS Sports Bracketology field of 68, there’s not another team with realistic at-large hopes. What that means is that 11 bids is likely the most the league can hope for. While that would be a downtick from last year’s tally of 14, it would still mark a strong haul for a conference that teetered some during November and December. Within the last few weeks, we’ve seen Georgia, Auburn, Texas, Texas A&M and Missouri all wobble and flirt with the cut line. No one from that group is fully “safe” just yet. But over the longhaul, our model projects each of them will make the field.
Currently in the CBS Sports Bracketology field (9): Duke (1), Virginia (4), Louisville (5), North Carolina (6), NC State (8), SMU (8), Miami (9), Clemson (10), Cal (11)
Bubbly: Virginia Tech (Next Four Out)
Selection Sunday will likely be a day of redemption for the ACC after the league placed just four teams in the 2025 NCAA Tournament. That was its lowest tally since the 2013 season, when the conference featured just 12 teams. As things stand entering Tuesday’s action, the ACC is projected to put half of its 18 teams into the tournament. In a best-case scenario, Virginia Tech would close strong and rise from the “Next Four Out” to make the league’s tally 10. On the flip side, Clemson and Cal are both at risk of missing the field if they don’t finish well. If they did, the league’s final number could be just seven. But that would still signify marked improvement over last season
Currently in the CBS Sports Bracketology field: Michigan (1), Purdue (2), Illinois (2), Nebraska (3), Michigan State (4), Wisconsin (6), Iowa (8), UCLA (10)
Bubbly: Ohio State (First Four Out), USC (First Four Out), Indiana (First Four Out)
Of the high-major leagues, the Big Ten features the most bubble intrigue heading down the stretch. In a best-case scenario, it could still wind up leading the nation in NCAA Tournament bids. That would likely require Ohio State, USC and Indiana all to finish strong and reach the right side of the cut line. As things stand now, they are teetering on the edge. At 4-10 across Quad 1 and Quad 2, Indiana has fewer Q1/2 victories than anyone in the top 50 of the NET aside from Miami (Ohio). Ohio State is still searching for its Quad 1 victory (next chance is Wednesday at Iowa). USC is reeling after a Quad 3 home loss to Oregon on Saturday.
Currently in the CBS Sports Bracketology field: Arizona (1), Iowa State (2), Houston (2), Kansas (3), Texas Tech (4), BYU (6), UCF (9), TCU (Last Four In)
Bubbly: Arizona State (Next Four Out)
The Big 12 is loaded at the top but also features a significant chunk of teams on life support in the pursuit of an at-large bid. You won’t seem them listed as “bubbly” here, because they have a lot of ground to make up. But if West Virginia, Cincinnati or Oklahoma State started stacking wins, they could still get bubbly. Those three teams are right on Arizona State’s heels for “Next Four Out.” But with time running short, they need to get busy in a hurry. Same goes for the Sun Devils,
Currently in the CBS Sports Bracketology field (3): UConn (1), St. John’s (6), Villanova (7)
Bubbly: Seton Hall (Next Four Out)
The Big East is not having a banner season. UConn and St. John’s are carrying the flag for the league. Thankfully for the conference, Villanova has also been a pleasant surprise in Year 1 under coach Kevin Willard. After that, you’ve got to scroll for a while before stumbling upon another potential at-large team. Seton Hall could get there, but it would likely require winning on the road Saturday against UConn. The Pirates played the Huskies close in mid-January at home, so maybe there is hope.
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