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The 2026 men’s NCAA tournament is rapidly approaching, which means the question top of mind for many fans is: Will your team be in or out? Teams have roughly three weeks until Selection Sunday to strengthen their cases. Until then, we’re here to track how each team on the “bubble” of the bracket is trending.
We’ll use a variety of metrics as guides, classifying teams based on how likely they are to make the field of 68 as one of the 37 at-large selections — conditional on not winning their respective conference tournaments for one of the 31 automatic qualifying bids (AQs). To that end, we’ll use Joe Lunardi’s Bracketology projections and a combination of data sources — including my forecast-model consensus and NCAA résumé metrics such as NET rankings that the selection committee will evaluate — to judge a team’s underlying potential. (For a full glossary of terms and sources, click here or scroll to the bottom of this story.)
Editor’s Picks
We’ll sort teams in at-large contention into the following categories:
Locks: Teams that have nearly a 100% chance to be called by the committee as an at-large selection (if necessary). They would need a significant change in momentum to miss the cut. 27 current teams
Should be in: Teams tracking safely above the cutline (generally 75% consensus at-large odds or better), but not immune to trouble. Most likely, these teams should hear their names called on March 15, though their fates are not yet assured. 12 current teams
Work to do: Teams whose upcoming results will meaningfully change their fate (for good or bad). These are the truest “on the bubble” teams, because their chances are closest to a coin flip, though their consensus at-large odds may be as low as 10%. 16 current teams
Teams beyond these categories would need to outperform expectations or benefit from chaos. There is little — though not zero — chance any team not listed here will make the Big Dance without winning its conference tournament.
Now let’s go conference by conference — in order of which project to have the most NCAA tournament bids — to rank the teams in each category based on their chances to secure an at-large bid.
Note: All times Eastern.
Jump to a conference:
SEC | Big Ten | ACC
Big 12 | Big East
Mid-majors
9.9 expected bids (8.9 at-large)
Florida Gators
Alabama Crimson Tide
Vanderbilt Commodores
Arkansas Razorbacks
Tennessee Volunteers
Kentucky Wildcats
Updated: Feb. 24, 9:22 p.m.
Three consecutive losses — to Florida, Georgia and Auburn — meant we had to downgrade Kentucky from a “lock” recently, but the Wildcats got back to business with a win at South Carolina on Tuesday. Their résumé features five Quadrant 1 wins, enough to rank around the top 30 nationally in our résumé average, and is still comfortably sixth best in the SEC, which projects to send as many as 11 teams in the recent Bracketology. Even with 10 losses, it helps that seven came to Quadrant 1A foes. A bigger concern is that they still have one of the nation’s toughest remaining schedules, with all three games against Quadrant 1 foes (including a Quadrant 1A in Florida).
Next game: vs. Vanderbilt (Saturday)
Georgia Bulldogs
Updated: Feb. 25, 9:10 p.m.
Coming off résumé-boosting wins over Kentucky and Texas, Georgia fell short in a comeback bid for another after falling behind big early at Vanderbilt on Wednesday. It has been a roller-coaster season for the Dawgs: After winning 16 of their first 19 games, they lost five of their next six and fell from a 97% to 66% consensus at-large chance in the span of three weeks — but those chances are back up around 90% despite the loss to the Commodores. Georgia sits mid-30s in the overall résumé rankings, with four wins against Quadrant 1 foes, and ranks seventh in résumé average within what should be at least a 10-bid SEC. Toward the end of a challenging stretch of games, the Dawgs have the conference’s easiest remaining schedule according to the BPI, so they should pick up a couple of additional wins.
Next game: vs. South Carolina (Saturday)
Missouri Tigers
Updated: Feb. 25, 7:41 a.m.
Coming off Saturday’s loss at Arkansas — their second in three games — the Tigers needed a win to stabilize their at-large chances, and they got it hosting Tennessee on Tuesday. They still rank just 11th among SEC teams in the résumé average (borderline mid-40s nationally), a scary spot to be in with the conference projected for 10-11 tournament entries. They have five Quadrant 1 wins, though, and in many ways are the anti-Auburn in terms of what the committee might value more: They have a much better record (19-9 vs. 15-13) against a much easier schedule (63rd hardest vs. fourth). After Tuesday night, the at-large forecast models now favor Mizzou (78%) over Auburn (58%), which is why Dennis Gates’ team now sits here — with a much easier case to argue for itself from a W-L perspective.
Next game: at Mississippi State (Saturday)
Texas A&M Aggies
Updated: Feb. 25, 11:17 p.m.
The Aggies recently found themselves downgraded from “should be in” to “work to do,” but a remarkable comeback against Ole Miss followed by a solid victory at Oklahoma helped their tournament hopes. With Wednesday’s one-sided loss at Arkansas, though, their consensus at-large chances stay in the mid-70% range. They rank ninth in the résumé average out of what’s looking like a 10- to 11-bid SEC, so they are on the right side of the bubble, but Bucky McMillan’s squad probably needs to bolster their case against Texas, Kentucky and/or LSU to close the regular season.
Next game: vs. Texas (Saturday)
Texas Longhorns
Updated: Feb. 25, 9:12 p.m.
Leading Florida by three points with 7:27 to play Wednesday, Texas was outscored 23-7 down the stretch for its second consecutive loss. The Longhorns’ five-game winning streak is disappearing in the rearview mirror, with the consensus forecast now setting their at-large chances in the at 63% — up from 45% earlier in the month but down from 81% a week ago. They still have more Quadrant 1 wins than Texas A&M, but they’re also neck and neck with Missouri for 10th among SEC teams in the résumé rankings (mid-40s nationally). Even after losing to Georgia and Florida, two of their final three regular-season contests are against Quad 1 opponents, so their tournament fate still hangs in the balance.
Next game: at Texas A&M (Saturday)
Auburn Tigers
Updated: Feb. 25, 7:41 a.m.
The Tigers stopped their five-game losing streak with Saturday’s dramatic victory over Kentucky, but the relief turned out to be only temporary — they lost again at Oklahoma on Tuesday to cast more doubt on their tournament outlook. They still have a fascinating case: Although all but one of their recent losses came against Quadrant 1 opponents, they have five Quadrant 1 wins against the nation’s fourth-most difficult schedule per the BPI and remain top 40 in the national résumé ranking average. But those mounting losses do matter, and teams most similar to Auburn have tended to miss out on an at-large bid more often than not. Whatever happens, they will be an interesting litmus test for what the committee values.
Next game: vs. Mississippi (Saturday)
9.2 expected bids; 8.2 at-large
Michigan Wolverines
Purdue Boilermakers
Illinois Fighting Illini
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Michigan State Spartans
Wisconsin Badgers
Iowa Hawkeyes
Updated: Feb. 25, 11:15 p.m.
After a stretch of three losses in four games, Iowa rebounded with a big statement win while hosting Ohio State on Wednesday. Now the Hawkeyes’ at-large chances sit around 98%, a strong position to be in. Their résumé still sits in the low-30s nationally — in addition to being top 25 in our average of predictive ratings — so their tournament hopes are in good shape. Their remaining schedule won’t be easy; after Saturday’s trip to Penn State, they close out the regular season against Michigan and Nebraska. But they shouldn’t need either of those upsets to round out their résumé.
Next game: at Penn State (Saturday)
UCLA Bruins
Updated: Feb. 25, 7:53 a.m.
After consecutive losses on their Michigan tour halted their momentum — five wins in six games — the Bruins have bounced back. On Saturday, they beat visiting No. 10 Illinois in overtime on Donovan Dent’s coast-to-coast layup, then took down crosstown bubble rival USC by 19 behind Dent’s 30 points on Tuesday. They now have three Quadrant 1 wins on the season (two Q1-A) and their résumé ranks borderline top 40 nationally, converging with a predictive rating that has been better than their résumé indicated for most of the year. Even if the Big Ten gets only nine bids, the Bruins would appear to be in line for one of the last of those — they rank eighth on the conference’s résumé list — and their consensus at-large odds are now 91% in the forecast models.
Next game: at Minnesota (Saturday)
Indiana Hoosiers
Updated: Feb. 24, 9:10 p.m.
After a run of five wins in six games, Indiana has now lost three straight to Illinois, Purdue and Northwestern, shaving the Hoosiers’ conditional at-large probability down to the 60% range. Their portfolio can stand up next to other bubble teams — they rank mid-40s in the national résumé average, no worse than 10th among the Big Ten in what’s looking like a nine-bid conference — and they remain among the top 40 in the predictive metrics. But they just lost their most winnable remaining game to Northwestern and are likely to enter the Big Ten tournament in limbo.
Next game: vs. Michigan State (Sunday)
Ohio State Buckeyes
Updated: Feb. 25, 11:15 p.m.
When we noted that the Buckeyes needed more consistency after alternating wins and losses for so long, they were looking for a winning streak — not the back-to-back losses they got against Michigan State and Iowa this week. Their at-large chances now sit in the high-50% range, casting doubt on a tournament profile that seemed much stronger not long ago. Ohio State is a better team than its current résumé indicates, ranking inside the top 40 of the predictive ratings. But the Buckeyes have been unable to escape the bubble for very long, ranking in the mid-40s in the résumé rankings — right on the cutline both nationally and for a projected nine- or 10-bid Big Ten. After the Iowa loss, they are now 1-10 against Quadrant 1 opponents and 0-9 vs. Q1-A specifically. Remaining games against Purdue and Indiana loom large.
Next game: vs. Purdue (Sunday)
USC Trojans
Updated: Feb. 25, 7:53 a.m.
A recent three-game win streak had helped pad USC’s bubble case, but losses to Ohio State, Illinois, Oregon and now bubble rival UCLA — the latter of which saw the Bruins open up a lead near the half and pull away down the stretch — have sliced the Trojans’ at-large chances to just 20%. With the 11th-best résumé ranking in what’s trending to be just a nine-bid conference, and a ranking outside the top 50 of the predictive ratings, USC needs strong showings against Nebraska, Washington and UCLA again to make a case as one of the Big Ten’s last entries.
Next game: vs. Nebraska (Saturday)
8.1 expected bids; 7.1 at-large
Duke Blue Devils
Virginia Cavaliers
North Carolina Tar Heels
Louisville Cardinals
NC State Wolfpack
SMU Mustangs
Updated: Feb. 26, 8:06 a.m.
The Mustangs improved their projections last week with back-to-back wins over Louisville and Boston College, but Wednesday’s loss at California slowed that momentum a bit. They have been neck and neck with Miami (and now Clemson) recently, fighting to be sixth (as opposed to eighth) in what could be an eight-bid ACC. Now SMU’s consensus at-large chances are 89% — narrowly ahead of the Hurricanes and Tigers at 87% each — though all three teams are well clear of Cal (35%) and Virginia Tech (26%), who stand as its closest bubble rivals within the conference. The Mustangs do have the most challenging schedule of the three, with trips to Stanford and FSU sandwiched around a head-to-head against Miami.
Next game: at Stanford (Saturday)
Miami Hurricanes
Updated: Feb. 24, 11:18 p.m.
The Hurricanes have been on a roll in ACC play lately, adding to their recent résumé-boosting victories over North Carolina, NC State and Virginia Tech with another Quadrant 1 win over Florida State on Tuesday. Their at-large chances are now above those of Clemson and not far from SMU’s, though all three teams are bunched closely together in the mid-30s of the national résumé quality ranking — the trio makes up Nos. 6-8 in the ACC in that regard, with a big gap over the rest of what projects to be non-tournament teams in an eight-bid conference. The BPI has Miami projected to win nearly 24 games now, so the Canes are in good shape.
Next game: vs. Boston College (Saturday)
Clemson Tigers
Updated: Feb. 22, 7:53 a.m.
Clemson has gotten ice-cold at the wrong time. The Tigers had been an ACC “lock” since Bubble Watch launched on Feb. 3, with a 97% or higher at-large probability in the forecast every day for the past three weeks — until Saturday. They fell below that threshold with their fourth loss in a row, this time to Quadrant 3 Florida State. They still rank in the low-to-mid 30s nationally on résumé (no worse than eighth in the ACC) and their consensus chances are still around 90% despite the slump. But they have been downgraded as a result, trending lower in the conference’s pecking order according to the odds.
Next game: at Virginia (Tuesday)
California Golden Bears
Updated: Feb. 26, 8:26 a.m.
Cal’s tourney chances remain somewhat distant, but victories over Boston College, Stanford and, most importantly, SMU on Wednesday have the Golden Bears moving in the right direction. They still sit outside the nation’s top-50 on the résumé ranking, but they also have five Quadrant 1 wins and face the ACC’s easiest remaining schedule. That doesn’t leave many more signature-win chances, aside from a Quadrant 1 visit to Wake Forest in the finale. With a consensus at-large probability of 35%, the Bears have to bolster their case further.
Next game: vs. Pittsburgh (Saturday)
Virginia Tech Hokies
Updated: Feb. 21, 2:26 p.m.
Regrouping from the disappointment of Tuesday’s loss to Miami, the Hokies bested Wake Forest by 19 on Saturday to keep their bubble case in play. They do have ammunition in their battle to be possibly the last ACC team called to the brackets, including three Quadrant 1 wins and a résumé rating that is borderline top 50. But their conditional at-large chances are still south of 30%, suggesting they are in serious limbo if they don’t knock off North Carolina and/or Virginia as well in the next couple of weeks.
Next game: at North Carolina (Saturday)
7.6 expected bids (6.6 at-large)
Arizona Wildcats
Iowa State Cyclones
Houston Cougars
Kansas Jayhawks
Texas Tech Red Raiders
BYU Cougars
UCF Knights
Updated: Feb. 25, 8:05 a.m.
With so many of the Big 12’s expected bids being effective locks — the six teams listed above each have 99% conditional at-large chances in the model consensus — the conference’s bubble picture really starts with who could be the seventh bid. The Knights had been losing their grip on that spot with three straight losses to Houston, Cincinnati and West Virginia earlier this month, but it’s fair to say they’ve regained their position and then some (now up to 97% at-large odds) with wins over bubble rival TCU, Utah and then a big road upset over BYU on Tuesday night. The victories push their full-season projection back up to near 22 wins and help them close in on the top 30 in the résumé average — a good place to be, since no other non-lock from the Big 12 is even better than No. 50. With a couple of manageable home games coming up against Baylor and Oklahoma State before a visit to WVU for the season finale, the Knights are back in the driver’s seat.
Next game: vs. Baylor (Saturday)
TCU Horned Frogs
Updated: Feb. 24, 11:36 p.m.
The Horned Frogs continue to make a run at the Big 12’s final at-large nod with their fifth win in six games, beating Arizona State at home Tuesday. Although they sit with a consensus at-large chance in the 40% range, they have four Quadrant 1 wins and have one more chance to add another coming up against Texas Tech on March 3. They have a clear case to be the conference’s eighth tournament team, though if seven ends up being the Big 12’s magic number, they’re in trouble.
Next game: at Kansas State (Saturday)
Cincinnati Bearcats
Updated: Feb. 24, 9:17 p.m.
The Bearcats’ late-season bid to inject life into the bubble with their upset of Kansas — by 16 points at Allen Fieldhouse! — for their fourth consecutive win was fun while it lasted. Tuesday’s loss to Texas Tech threatens to send them back into long shot territory. They are only borderline top 60 in the national résumé average — the rest of the bubble is generally around No. 45 — and they are projected to finish the season with 14.4 losses, per the BPI. At this point, their case really relies on two signature wins: over Iowa State at home and at Kansas. The consensus model sets Cincinnati’s at-large chances at 12% now.
Next game: vs. Oklahoma State (Saturday)
3.2 expected bids (2.2 at-large)
UConn Huskies
St. John’s Red Storm
Villanova Wildcats
None
Seton Hall Pirates
Updated: Feb. 21, 8:27 p.m.
Wednesday’s 12-point home loss to DePaul put a dent in the Pirates’ chances, only mitigated slightly by Saturday’s victory over Georgetown. Their at-large chances sit at 13% in the forecast composite, while they rank outside the top 50 nationally in résumé average with only a single Quadrant 1 win. A case will be hard to make if the Big East receives only three bids, which is the current Bracketology expectation, so Seton Hall’s last chances to impress the committee would be to upset UConn (Feb. 28 on the road) or St. John’s (March 6 at home).
Next game: at UConn (Saturday)
Gonzaga Bulldogs (West Coast Conference)
Utah State Aggies (Mountain West)
Saint Mary’s Gaels (WCC)
Updated: Feb. 26, 8:30 a.m.
Facing rival Santa Clara in a big Bubble Watch contest Wednesday night, the Gaels outscored the Broncos 44-31 in the second half to pull away for the statement win. They haven’t missed the NCAA tournament since 2022, and it’s tough to imagine that streak coming to an end now. Saint Mary’s sits 27th in the résumé rankings with a consensus 95% at-large probability — very nearly a “lock” — and after Wednesday, it likely no longer has to worry about how many WCC teams the NCAA can accommodate for the Dance after Gonzaga. It still has just one Quadrant 1 win — it could add a second vs. Gonzaga when the two meet again on Saturday at Saint Mary’s. But the Gaels have to feel like they are in solid shape either way.
Next game: vs. Gonzaga (Saturday)
Saint Louis Billikens (Atlantic 10)
Updated: Feb. 24, 9:12 p.m.
The Billikens are a great story in their second season with Josh Schertz at the helm and a cast of five double-figure scorers led by bespectacled big man Robbie Avila, tracking for the best SRS in program history. After they came back to beat bubble rival VCU by 13 points Friday, they turned around and suffered their ugliest loss of the year: by 15 points at Dayton. The positives are that Saint Louis still ranks top 30 nationally in the résumé rankings and even better in the predictive ratings, so it’s hard to see this group not making the field as an at-large team if necessary. But there will be lessons to learn from Tuesday’s loss.
Next game: vs. Duquesne (Saturday)
Miami (Ohio) RedHawks (MAC)
Updated: Feb. 24, 8:26 p.m.
The MAC hasn’t received multiple bids since 1998-99 — fittingly, the same year Wally Szczerbiak led Miami (Ohio) to the Sweet 16 after knocking off Washington and Utah in the first two rounds. Could history repeat? Miami is the sole remaining unbeaten in Division I and ranks inside the top 40 on résumé as a result. The forecast models don’t quite know how to handle the RedHawks, though the committee has never excluded an eligible team with fewer than four losses in a non-pandemic season — and Miami (Ohio) made the field as an at-large team during an NCAA-ran mock selection exercise last week. It is true that the RedHawks are a mid-80s team in the predictive ratings (Akron actually still ranks higher in the MAC) and had just the 321st-hardest schedule in the nation. But wins are wins, and they held off Eastern Michigan on Tuesday for their 28th. They are now only three away from an undefeated regular season, which ESPN Analytics gives around a 60% chance to happen.
Next game: at Western Michigan (Friday)
Santa Clara Broncos (WCC)
Updated: Feb. 26, 8:30 a.m.
The Santa Clara and Saint Mary’s comparisons will be constant down the stretch as we debate whether the WCC could get three bids — which has happened only once in the past 13 seasons. The Broncos had beaten SMC in mid-January, but Wednesday’s loss in the rematch dropped their consensus at-large chances from 76% to 68% and cast new doubt on whether Santa Clara is tourney-bound. They do own the nation’s No. 40 résumé ranking and that previous head-to-head win over Saint Mary’s, but their fate appears to hang almost entirely upon whether the selection committee will send that extra WCC at-large team to the Dance.
Next game: vs. Oregon State (Saturday)
San Diego State Aztecs (MW)
Updated: Feb. 26, 8:30 a.m.
Just when the Aztecs seemed to be sliding out of the bubble picture with consecutive losses to Grand Canyon and Colorado State, they responded by taking down conference leader Utah State by 17 on Wednesday night. The victory provided a major boost for their consensus at-large chances, which rose from 27% to 49%. After spending most of the season as one of the bubbliest of bubble teams, they are now outside the top 50 nationally in the résumé ranking, but they remain squarely in the mix on the basis of résumé wins. The Mountain West could feasibly send three teams to the tournament — it hasn’t fallen below that threshold in five seasons — and with a fairly sizable gap in at-large chances between SDSU/New Mexico and the next-best teams (Nevada/Boise State at 5%), both teams could get in regardless. But if the Mountain West gets only two bids, Saturday’s tilt in New Mexico could determine who has the edge.
Next game: at New Mexico (Saturday)
New Mexico Lobos (MW)
Updated: Feb. 26, 8:30 a.m.
Will anyone separate themselves as the Mountain West’s clear No. 2 NCAA contender behind Utah State? Seeking a third straight tournament trip for the first time in more than a decade, New Mexico seemed to regain its edge as the conference’s second-most-likely entrant by beating Air Force and Fresno State, as San Diego State fell to both Grand Canyon and Colorado State. But then came Tuesday’s loss to Nevada and SDSU’s win over the Aggies, pushing the Lobos’ consensus at-large chances back down to 35% — far from ideal. A major blemish on the résumé remains their head-to-head loss at the Aztecs on Jan. 17, which they’ll have a chance to avenge Saturday, but there are real questions around which of the MWC bubble squads deserves an at-large nod at this point.
Next game: vs. San Diego State (Saturday)
VCU Rams (A-10)
Updated: Feb. 21, 9:32 a.m.
VCU hasn’t made back-to-back NCAA tournaments since the Will Wade era nearly a decade ago, and the forecast models (which sit in the mid-20% consensus at-large range) remain less than bullish on that streak ending this season. In part, that’s because the Rams are 0-5 against Quadrant 1 opponents, including a tough collapse at Saint Louis on Friday that hurt their at-large case. On the positive side, they are right in the middle of bubble territory in overall résumé (mid-40s nationally), they’ve still won 10 of 11, and their remaining schedule is soft enough for more wins. But it’s still totally up in the air if the A-10 will get a second NCAA entry (which has happened in three of the five years since the pandemic), and the Billikens would clearly be first in line for whatever bid(s) the conference does get.
Next game: vs. Fordham (Saturday)
Belmont Bruins (MVC)
Updated: Feb. 25, 9:24 p.m.
Belmont’s case for at-large consideration continues to grow after the Bruins cruised past Evansville for their 13th win in 14 games. They lead the nation in effective FG% and are a top-50 team in our résumé composite. Though they don’t have any Quadrant 1 wins, they’ll get one more chance to improve on their 5-1 record against Quadrant 2 teams: against Illinois State on March 1.
Next game: at Illinois State (Sunday)
Model consensus: A blend of the conditional at-large bid odds found via BartTorvik, TeamRankings, JThom Analytics and ESPN Analytics.
Résumé ranking: An average of rankings in strength of record (SOR), NET, KPI and wins above bubble (WAB).
Predictive ranking: An average of rankings in the Basketball Power Index (BPI), KenPom ratings (KP), Bart Torvik’s “Barthagorean” ratings, TeamRankings’ power ratings and Sports-Reference’s SRS ratings.
Strength of schedule and projected records are according to the BPI.
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