Everyone’s definition of the term “sleeper” is different, but I like to have a standard: Anyone taken outside of the top-200 in ADP. There are certainly players being drafted earlier who could fit the bill for a sleeper — Geraldo Perdomo is going about 60 spots later on average than his 2025 finish, a sign that Fantasy drafters are at least figuratively asleep at the wheel coming off his breakout — but I like to focus more on late-round targets for my list. It just helps to narrow things down.
Unfortunately, prices change, which means players who once qualified for the list no longer do. The best example of that is Pirates uber prospect Konnor Griffin, who was being drafted 230.4 on average in NFBC drafts back in 2025 but has jumped up to 193.4 since the start of February. And after he hit a couple of loud homers Tuesday in spring action, I suspect that price is only going to keep climbing. He might end up a top-150 pick or higher if it looks like an Opening Day lineup spot is his, but either way, he no longer fits the bill of a sleeper. By my definition, at least.
So Griffin is out. And I’ve made a few other changes from my Sleepers 1.0 column since it came out nearly a month and a half ago. In my Sleepers 2.0, I’ve noted the players who have dropped off the list (and why), but there are mostly holdovers from that initial version of the list.
But I do want to highlight one new name: Andrew Painter. There was a point where it looked like Painter was going to make his MLB debut as a 19-year-old, and even though he missed the entirety of the 2023 and 2024 seasons, he’ll still be just 22 on Opening Day. He has gone through a lot since then, including Tommy John surgery and a miserable 2025 season that saw him stall out at Triple-A despite entering the season with every expectation that he would end up in the rotation. The truth is, he just never earned it, putting up a 5.26 ERA in 118 innings.
Painter’s mechanics got a bit out of whack, leading to struggles with his entire arsenal. But his prospect ranking didn’t really take too much of a hit, and given his age and pedigree, betting on him figuring it out still makes a lot of sense. Especially give his current 328.2 ADP in February drafts. If we see him get on the mound and dominate this spring, that price will surely rise, but I’ve also seen enough comments (both from Fantasy analysts and players) that suggest people have some fatigue around Painter, which could serve as a counterbalance.
Either way, he’s certainly cheap enough that all we care about is the possible upside, and it’s entirely possible he remains cheap all spring. And, for whatever it’s worth, Painter is garnering positive reviews in Phillies camp so far. I’ll be buying him at that price every time.
The rest of my updated sleeper picks are below, and I’m sticking with NFBC ADP in the month of February for my picks. Where players are removed from Sleepers 1.0, I’ve noted who was taken out, why, and who is replacing them — and we’ve got a deep sleeper for every position for those of you looking even later in your drafts for gems:
Sleepers 2.0
Carter Jensen, C, Royals — ADP: 201.4
What happened to Francisco Alvarez? I still love Alvarez’s profile and the gains he made after coming back from Triple-A last summer. But he graduates from this list with his ADP rising to 170.2 in the month of February. He’s still pretty much my ideal No. 2 catcher, but if I’m being consistent, I have to push him off Sleepers 2.0 (and likely onto Breakouts 2.0).
Jensen has the tools to be a superstar. We saw that in his brief cup of coffee late in the season, but it’s not like it came out of nowhere — he hit .290/.377/.501 in Double-A and Triple-A in 2024, and he put up an average exit velocity north of 94 mph in both Triple-A and the majors. I worry the batting average could drag behind because there will be some strikeout issues here, but a .250 batting average with 20-plus homers will certainly play at catcher, and that definitely isn’t the ceiling here. Jensen could hit 30 homers while playing nearly every day (he’ll likely DH plenty when Salvador Perez is behind the plate) if all comes together.
Deep Sleeper: Harry Ford, Nationals: Ford’s development has kind of stalled out, and the presence of Keibert Ruiz will limit his early opportunities. But he’s more than held his own in the high minors and could provide some out-of-position speed if the bat plays.
Kyle Manzardo, 1B, Guardians — ADP: 232.5
What’s new: The Guardians signed Rhys Hoskins, which presents a small amount of risk for Manzardo’s everyday chances. On the other hand, I’m not sure the Guardians have enough talent to stick these guys in a platoon — they might just have to use Hoskins every day at DH. I’m still bullish on Manzardo. Here’s why:
The question for any talented, young left-handed hitter is inevitably, “Can they hit lefties?” In Manzardo’s case, it’s hard to say, because he got just 95 plate appearances against them in 2025, but I think he’s got a chance. His .287 wOBA doesn’t back it up, but look under the hood, and there are reasons to be optimistic, as he had a .315 expected wOBA, 90 mph average exit velocity, and a viable 26% strikeout rate against southpaws. At the very least, he showed enough last season to be worth a longer look against them.
And I’m not sure the Guardians really have much of a choice. The offseason isn’t over, but there isn’t an obvious platoon bat to split time with him. Late last season, they did at least show a willingness to give Manzardo a chance – after starting just one out of 27 games against lefties from late May through mid-August, he started seven of their final 10 against them, including their playoff game against Tarik Skubal. Manzardo hit 27 homers last season despite being much less than a full-time player, so it doesn’t take much projection to get him to 30-plus with a bump in playing time. That’s not bad for a post-200 pick.
Deep Sleeper: Coby Mayo, Orioles: This is kind of the last chance for Mayo, and it’s not at all clear he’s good enough to handle major-league pitching. At the very least, he hasn’t really shown much reason to be optimistic — even his .941 OPS last September came with a 29% strikeout rate and 82.6 mph average exit velocity. But he has nothing left to prove at Triple-A, and with Jordan Westburg on the IL to open the season (at least), Mayo is going to play every day to open the season. I’ll take a cheap flyer on that late pop.
Marcus Semien, 2B, Mets — ADP: 244.1
What happened to Matt McLain? McLain’s spot at second base seems secure with the Reds announcing that Sal Stewart will primarily play first base. McLain still has to hit, but I haven’t given up on McLain. However, Semien is even cheaper, and I think he’s probably just the better hitter. So we pivot to Semien!
If you look at the top-line numbers, Semien is in free fall as he nears his late 30s. He hit just .230 with 15 homers last season, his first season with fewer than 23 since 2018. Under the surface, it’s less obvious that Semien has totally fallen off. His xwOBA in 2025 was .318, right in line with what he did in 2024 and actually slightly ahead of his 2022 mark. His strikeout rate did climb to the highest rate since 2021, which is one red flag, and it’s entirely possible that Semien’s profile (which relies heavily on making a lot of contact and directing a lot of balls just over the left field fence) just doesn’t leave him with a particularly large margin for error. It’s also possible that he just underperformed for a couple of months in a park that increasingly looks like a poor fit for Semien’s swing. Citi Field isn’t a great hitter’s park, but it rates out as a better hitter’s park for right-handed hitters than Globe Life Field did. Add in the excellent Mets lineup ahead of him, and expecting a return to usefulness from Semien is pretty easy at this price.
Deep Sleeper: Edouard Julien, Rockies: Julien has real skills. He’s a very patient hitter with legitimate pop for a second baseman. But his flaws (an overly passive approach and an inability to hit the ball in the air to the right parts of the field held him back from living up to the potential so many once thought he had. Those flaws haven’t disappeared, but Coors Field could help cover up for them. I could see a return to a .250 average and 20-ish homers on the Rockies.
Kazuma Okamoto, 3B, Blue Jays — ADP: 230.6
What’s new: Okamoto’s price has risen, but not nearly fast enough. Maybe a big spring will do it, but for now, he’s still coming off the board about a round after Munetaka Murakami. I like both as sleepers, but Okamoto is definitely the safer pick. Here’s what I liked about him in Sleepers 1.0:
Okamoto’s price is starting to rise, but not especially quickly in drafts since his signing. That’s fine, I’ll take the discount. I think he’s unlikely to be a superstar, but I do think his playing time should be pretty secure, and I think there’s a pretty good chance Okamoto ends up eligible at first base and in the outfield in addition to third base – and I wouldn’t be totally shocked if he saw some reps at second base in a pinch, too. He won’t be the consistent 30-plus homer guy he was in Japan, but his strong contact skills and ability to hit the ball in the air to the pull side should make him a viable source of power. The comp I’ve been going with is the post-Coors Field version of Nolan Arenado, like when he hit .266 with 26 homers and 93 RBI in 2023 and was a top-75 hitter in Fantasy. Not a superstar, but a very solid starting option, especially for a CI spot.
Deep Sleeper: Jordan Lawlar, Diamondbacks: The fact that the Diamondbacks have never really embraced Lawlar as an MLB player is a bit concerning, but there have been injuries and playing time roadblocks in his way as an extenuating circumstance. He’s struggled with breaking balls, but otherwise hits the ball hard with decent plate discipline and at least above-average power and speed. He’s a perfect high-upside bench piece to draft in all categories leagues if he looks set to play every day in the outfield for the Diamondbacks.
JJ Wetherholt, SS, Cardinals — ADP: 251.8
What happened to Konnor Griffin? In Sleepers 1.0, I reported, “I suspect by the time Spring Training rolls around, Griffin is going to cost too much to qualify for a “sleeper tag.” He’s just inside of the top 200 right now because of concerns about his role, but I’d bet Tuesday’s two-homer game alone is worth a couple of rounds in ADP over the next week or so.
So, we’ll go a few spots down the prospect rankings for Wetherholt, whose role is much less in question. In fact, I would be outright shocked if he didn’t open the 2026 season as the Cardinals second baseman at this point (and that’s part of why he’s such a good target, seeing as 2B is much shallower than SS for Fantasy). Wetherholt doesn’t have the incredible tools Griffin does — his max exit velocity was just 108 mph last season, a below-average mark. What he does have is a very solid skill set, where he hits the ball hard pretty regularly — his average exit velocity at Triple-A was 90.8 mph, an 84th percentile mark, for example — and makes a lot of contact. And he’s a good athlete who should chip in at least 15 steals, with the potential for more. The Cardinals are in a rebuilding phase, but I don’t think their offense is going to be a disaster, and Wetherholt has a chance to hit pretty high up if he gets off to a good start. Coming off a 17-23 season in just 109 games, with a clear path to playing time, getting Wetherholt outside of the top-200 feels like stealing.
Deep Sleeper: Colt Emerson, Mariners: Emerson is another prospect whose profile figures to rise this spring, as the Mariners are expected to give him a chance to win the second base job. Playing much of last season as a 19-year-old himself, Emerson hit .285/.383/.458 with 16 homers and 14 steals in 130 games and could grow into more power.
Justin Crawford, OF, Phillies — ADP: 278.3
What’s new: The Phillies haven’t officially named Crawford their starting center fielder, but I don’t really know who else it’s supposed to be if not him. He’s not an ideal fit there, but he’s the best choice the Phillies have, and nothing out of camp suggests there’s much risk of him starting in the minors. Here’s what I like about Crawford:
Crawford is a controversial player in real-life prospect rankings. Scouting reports tend to focus on what Crawford doesn’t do: Despite plus-plus foot speed, Crawford doesn’t project as an MLB-caliber centerfielder; despite at least above-average raw power, he doesn’t project to hit for power in the majors because he swings at way too many pitches out of the zone and rarely elevates the ball. Those limitations put a real cap on how high the ceiling can be at the big-league level, and they are very fair concerns to bring up when discussing his real-life value.
But I don’t know how much we should care about them for Fantasy. Despite poor swing decisions, Crawford still makes a lot of contact and still racks up very strong batting averages because of his ability to hit hard grounders and beat out throws with his plus-plus speed. You’d prefer there was a likelier path to double-digit homers, but this isn’t necessarily a Chandler Simpson profile – Crawford will occasionally run into one, hitting 10 homers in 152 games between Double-A and Triple-A. He’ll have every chance to emerge as an everyday player for the Phillies and could at least be a plus contributor in batting average and steals, with the potential for a bunch of steals if he can force his way into the mix near the top of the lineup. If I’m looking for a steals specialist, I think I’d rather bet on Crawford than Simpson 100 picks earlier.
Chase DeLauter, OF, Guardians — ADP: 317.3
What’s new: Nothing, really. DeLauter seems all but certain to open the season as the Guardians starting right fielder, and while there’s a lot of injury risk here (that could lead to some load management days off), there’s plenty of upside if the bat clicks. For as much time as he has missed over the years, prospect folks still universally seem to love DeLauter’s swing:
DeLauter’s prospect standing has taken a hit since he was the 16th pick back in the 2022 draft, but it’s not because of his performance. When DeLauter has been on the field, he has been very productive, hitting .302/.384/.504 in 138 games. Prior to 2025, the issue had been recurring foot injuries, but he was felled by sports hernia surgery and a broken hamate bone as he was on the cusp of making it to the majors last season.
The Guardians will almost certainly play it safe with DeLauter’s playing time at least early on in 2026, and it’s up to him to force the issue by staying healthy and emerging as the force in the middle of the lineup they’ve expected him to be for years. The smart money shouldn’t be on DeLauter staying healthy, but when you’re talking about a late-draft dart throw, you’re never talking about high-probability bets. At least this one is on a guy who might still be a premium talent (he posted above-average quality of contact metrics with very good plate discipline in his brief time at Triple-A last season) who should have a job as long as he’s healthy.
Daylen Lile, OF, Nationals — ADP: 208.4
What happened to Anthony Santander? The shoulder injury that wrecked his 2025 season never went away, and Santander had surgery to repair a torn labrum at the start of Spring Training. He’ll likely be out until the second half of the season and shouldn’t be drafted in most leagues.
Lile kind of came out of nowhere. He didn’t rank as even a top-20 prospect in the Nationals’ system according to BaseballProspectus.com entering 2025. But, while Lile has the feel of a late-career flash in the pan, he was just 22 years old all of last season as he took a huge step forward. He hit .328/.377/.503 across 47 games between Double-A and Triple-A (after just a .735 OPS in 2024, by comparison), and then he came up to the majors and hit .299/.347/.498 in 91 games. I don’t necessarily think he’s just a .300 hitter moving forward, but the contact skills here are real, and it’s non-zero power — a 35th percentile hard-hit rate and 33rd percentile average exit velocity can work with his bat control. The profile would look a lot better if Lile could turn his 92nd percentile sprint speed into something more like 30-steal potential, but we could be looking at a very cheap 15-homer, 20-steal guy who might be a true standout in batting average, as his .302 expected BA showed in 2025.
Deep Sleeper: Carson Benge, Mets: The comp we’ve been throwing around for Benge is Brandon Nimmo, and as long as he doesn’t totally flop this spring, we have every reason to believe he’ll be in the Mets’ starting lineup. There isn’t a ton of present power, but some swing optimization could unlock 20-plus homers without sacrificing batting average. I don’t think the market has quite caught up with the likelihood of Benge being on the Opening Day roster.
Kris Bubic, SP, Royals — ADP: 219.3
What’s new: There was some talk about the Royals possibly trading Bubic this offseason, but that never came to fruition. We haven’t seen him on the mound yet this spring, but all indications are he’s going to be in the team’s rotation, so let’s hope he gets into a game soon and shows no ill effects from last year’s shoulder injury. Here’s what I like about him:
That Bubic is coming back from a rotator cuff strain that ended his breakout season early is likely what is keeping his price down, and that’s a pretty big red flag … if he costs much at all to draft. However, with his price sitting outside of the top 200, much of the downside risk here is mitigated, and what we’re left with is a pitcher who showed legitimate front-of-rotation upside last season.
Bubic threw 116.1 innings with a 2.55 ERA, and while the peripherals don’t quite back it up, they don’t suggest it was some fluke either – you’d still take his 3.16 expected ERA, wouldn’t you? Bubic missed plenty of bats with his four-seamer last season, and when he didn’t, hitters still struggled to do damage against it, putting up a lowly .287 expected wOBA as they often just got under the ball with the barrel. An excellent changeup surely helped in that regard, and overall, as does an overall five-pitch mix without an obvious weak spot. Bubic isn’t an ace when healthy, but he should be a must-start pitcher who isn’t being drafted that way. Even accounting for the injury risk, I think he’s one of the very best values in drafts right now.
Joe Musgrove, SP, Padres — ADP: 226.6
What’s new: It’s no news so far, and I’d say that counts as good news. Musgrove is working his way back from Tommy John surgery, but he’s been fully cleared for Spring Training and should get on a mound here soon. Here’s why I’m in on Musgrove’s comeback chance:
If last season taught us anything, it’s that we should be very cautious with pitchers coming back from Tommy John surgery. That obviously applies to Musgrove, who had the procedure back in October of 2024, though that timeline also makes it very likely he’ll be good to go from the start of Spring Training. Will he be, you know, good? It’s fair to be skeptical, and the market is, with his ADP sitting around 250 – compare that to Shane McClanahan and Sandy Alcantara this time last year, who were being drafted around 150 coming back from their own Tommy John surgeries. Musgrove dealt with injuries in 2023 and 2024 that limited him to under 100 innings in each season, but he has been very effective when on the mound, putting up a 3.20 ERA and 1.11 WHIP from 2021 to 2024. Getting a 100-pick discount on Musgrove compared to Alcantara and McClanahan this time last year.
Parker Messick, SP, Guardians — ADP: 316
What’s new: Messick is one of four pitchers fighting for three spots in the Guardians rotation, and I think most are assuming he won’t be in at this point. There are reasons for that (he has options and some of the other contenders don’t), but if the Guardians want to put their best five starters out there, Messick will be among them. And it’ll only take one injury to someone ahead of him to guarantee a spot. Here’s why I’m drafting him despite the uncertainty:
For all the hype around this crop of exciting pitchers who debuted in the second half of 2026, it seems like everyone is just forgetting about Messick. Messick doesn’t have even average velocity on his fastball, but the pitch has always punched above its weight, including with a 29% whiff rate last season, thanks to a low release point, excellent command, and the way it plays off his terrific changeup. Messick has never garnered a ton of hype as a prospect, but he has been very effective in the upper minors, routinely running 30% strikeout rates, which is one reason to think there might be some juice left to squeeze out of his average K rate from last season. There appears to be some concern in the Fantasy community that he may not have a rotation spot, but I really can’t see the Guardians overlooking what he did down the stretch, so they can stick proven mediocrities like Slade Cecconi and Logan Allen in the rotation instead. Messick’s gonna be in there unless something goes really wrong.
Grayson Rodriguez, SP, Angels — ADP: 296.6
What happened to Jonah Tong? It just looks like Tong is a real long shot to make the Mets rotation — even in a six-man configuration, he might need multiple injuries to have a spot. I still like Tong in the long run, but he’s made just two starts above Double-A, so heading back to Triple-A for some seasoning isn’t the end of the world. We’ll see him before the All-Star break unless something goes really wrong.
Coming off an entirely lost season due to another lat injury and then surgery to remove bone spurs from his elbow, Rodriguez entered Spring Training as one of the true unknowns in baseball. And, as of publication, he’s still a big question mark. But we did get our first semblance of some answers when he made his spring debut, and while the results (1 ER on 1 H, 3 BB, 2 K in 1.2 IP) weren’t great, the results really weren’t what anyone cared about. What we cared about was seeing a glimpse of what Rodriguez looks like after all of the injuries, and for the most part, I thought it was pretty promising!
Rodriguez sat at 96.1 mph with his four-seamer, right in line with where he was in 2024. It was down a bit from 2023, but seeing as it was his first start in over a year, it’s not unreasonable to think there might be room to grow from there. That fastball has always been an effective pitch for Rodriguez, and his changeup has been too. It looks like Rodriguez was back to using his sweeper, which was an excellent pitch in 2023 before he ditched it for a harder slider, so that’s nice to see. Rodriguez has a long way to go before we can view him as a trustworthy start, and I think smart money is probably betting against it. But if he keeps showing his pre-injury skills, Rodriguez will be hard to ignore in the later rounds.
Deep Sleeper: Robby Snelling, Marlins: Snelling’s price was supposed to rise after the Edward Cabrera and Ryan Weathers trades, and has profiled for a while as another one of these “command-over-stuff” lefties who have had so much success in recent years. Except he can also dial his fastball up to the 96-97 range. He was dominant in the minors in 2025, putting up a 2.51 ERA in 136 innings, including a microscopic 1.27 mark in Triple-A. He deserves to be on your reserve round radar in leagues of any size.
Bryan Abreu, RP, Astros — ADP: 211.5
What happened to Edwin Uceta? Uceta is dealing with a shoulder injury this spring, and while he hasn’t been ruled out for Opening Day, it just doesn’t make much sense to pin my hopes to a pitcher who is already hurt. I’ll pin my hopes to a pitcher backing up someone who is already hurt, instead.
Josh Hader’s status for Opening Day is in doubt with a biceps injury, which is pretty scary after his 2025 season ended early with a shoulder injury. It might be totally unrelated, but it’s never a good sign when a pitcher gets to spring training and almost immediately starts dealing with an injury. The Astros are downplaying the injury, and it very well may mean nothing, but I do think Abreu has to be on your radar in basically all leagues now. He’s a good enough reliever to matter in categories leagues even as a setup man (three straight seasons of 100 strikeouts is pretty impressive), and if he gets to close for any stretch of time, he’s immediately a top-10 option at the position. In all likelihood, Hader doesn’t miss enough time for that to matter for Abreu, but there are some tail-end outcomes where Abreu finishes as a top-five reliever in Fantasy if Hader’s injuries get worse.
