The middle of February may seem too early for Fantasy Football projections. ‘Seem’ may not be a strong enough word in that first sentence. Free agency is right around the corner but the NFL Draft won’t happen for two more months. It is way too early. But that doesn’t mean it isn’t helpful to take a snapshot before things get crazy.
The first thing you will notice when you look at the projections below is that Kenneth Walker III, Breece Hall, Travis Etienne, Javonte Williams, and many other free agents are not listed. It is hard to project a running back when we don’t know what team they will be on, so I will add them when they either get tagged or signed in free agency. Walker and Hall seem like the most likely to receive the franchise tag, which could be good for Walker and not so much for Hall.
The Seahawks and Jets are just two teams that should be in the market for a running back. I also have the Chiefs, Jaguars, Broncos, Commanders, and Cowboys projected with less than half of their teams running back attempts accounted for. Two of those teams have rookies that could be big offseason winners if their team doesn’t make a significant investment at the position. That seems to be factored into the market for RJ Harvey right now, but not as much for Jacory Croskey-Merritt. For now, I expect both to be in timeshares in 2026.
The very top of the projections at running back gives us two interesting names. It probably isn’t a surprise that Christian McCaffrey tops the list. When he’s been healthy he has generally been the best back in Fantasy. But his rushing efficiency cratered last year and most of his value was an outsized role in the passing game. If the 49ers add pass catchers will that impact McCaffrey more than most running backs? If nothing else, the fact that McCaffrey turns 30 in June could keep him from being ranked or drafted as RB1.
The other interesting name is De’Von Achane. Achane was one of my favorite backs this time last year and he more than justified that. I’m just not sure anyone realizes how special he was in his specific context. The Dolphins ran only 949 offensive plays last year, which ranked 31st in the NFL. They ranked 25th in points and 26th in yards. Somehow, Achane still averaged 114.8 yards per game, caught 67 passes, and scored 12 times in 16 games. If the Dolphins offense improves even a little bit Achane has a very good chance of being the number one running back in Fantasy.
There are three other backs that project for close to 20 points per game: Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Jonathan Taylor. Along with McCaffrey and Achane these are the five backs who should be Round 1 picks in every one-QB draft.
Below are my way-too-early running back projections for 2026. Bookmark this page as I will news the projections below whenever we get new information.
