Free agency bold predictions, plus potential landing spots for Tua Tagovailoa and other quarterbacks

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Welcome to the Monday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!

I hope you started your morning by taking down at least four cups of coffee, because you’re going to need the extra boost energy today since the unofficial start of free agency is here. I stopped drinking coffee at 10 a.m. ET and decided it would be easier if I just stuck an IV into my veins, so that’s where I’m at now.

Although free agency doesn’t technically start until Wednesday, there is a two-day tampering period where teams are allowed to negotiate with free agents and that started at 12 p.m. ET today. The rules of the tampering period are simple … You know what, why don’t I just explain this stuff in the actual newsletter. We have a lot of stuff to cover today, so let’s get to the rundown.

As always, here’s your reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter. Let’s get to the rundown.

1. Why free agency unofficially starts today

The NFL calendar says that free agency won’t be starting until 4 p.m. ET on Wednesday, but don’t be fooled by that. The real action begins today: The two-day negotiating period opened at noon ET, which means there’s a good chance that several deals could already be in place by the time you read this.

Once the negotiating period starts, players are allowed to agree to terms on a contract with a new team. However, that contract can’t be signed until Wednesday.

Once the negotiating period starts, things usually get pretty hot and heavy. Since deals could be going down all day Monday, here’s a reminder that we’ve put together a free agency tracker for you so that you can stay up to date on everything that has happened so far (Click here for the tracker).

We’re also tracking every TRADE and you can see that here.

Also, to help you get warmed up for free agency, here’s a list of Pete Prisco’s Top 100 free agents this offseason. The top guys are usually the ones who get signed first in free agency, so it won’t be surprising at all if we see multiple players from this list go off that market by the end of the day today.

We actually have a list of every top 100 player who has signed a deal so far and you can follow along here.

For players who got hit with the franchise tag, the rules are slightly different. George Pickens, Breece Hall and Kyle Pitts — the only three players who got tagged — aren’t allowed to talk to other teams until the official start of free agency on Wednesday. This also applies to players who got hit with the transition tag and all restricted free agents. So players like Daniel Jones (transition tag) and Brandon Aubrey (second-round tender) won’t be able to talk with teams until Wednesday.

2. Free agency bold predictions: Eagles land NFL’s 2024 sack leader, Chiefs sign Super Bowl MVP

Free agency can’t officially start until we unveil our bold predictions, so that’s exactly what we’re going to do right now. Tyler Sullivan came up with several bold predictions for free agency, and we’re going to check out three of those below.

Eagles sign Trey Hendrickson. With Jaelan Phillips set to hit free agency, the team once again finds itself in need of some pass-rushing help. Instead of landing Phillips, who has a sizable injury history, the Eagles pivot and upgrade by signing former Bengals pass rusher Trey Hendrickson. The 31-year-old has elite upside for a team like Philadelphia, which is in the thick of a Super Bowl window.
Chiefs land Super Bowl MVP. At the NFL Scouting Combine, Chiefs GM Brett Veach told reporters that the Chiefs need to add explosiveness to their backfield. With Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt both entering free agency, Kansas City’s running back room is slated for a seismic shift. Most assume that it’ll come in the form of Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love, but there is no guarantee that he’ll be available to the Chiefs when they are on the clock with the No. 9 overall pick at the 2026 NFL Draft. Instead, they attack that need in free agency, landing Super Bowl LX MVP Kenneth Walker III.
Mike Evans leaves Tampa Bay. Evans is slated to hit free agency, and it seems like there is a real chance he finally leaves Tampa. There is an array of teams that need a receiving threat like Evans, including the Chargers, 49ers, and Commanders. That’s enough of a market that will result in Evans playing elsewhere and ending one of the most prolific tenures we’ve seen a receiver have with a team in league history.

Sullivan has a few more bold predictions, and you can check those out here.

3. QB carousel predictions: Tua Tagovailoa goes to Arizona, Kyler Murray lands in the Big Apple

OK, now that we’re done with the bold predictions, let’s focus only on the quarterbacks. There are going to be quite a few available in free agency this year, so Zach Pereles decided to take a stab at where each guy might land and we’re going to start with Tua Tagovailoa, who is going to be released when the new league year starts on Wednesday.

Let’s check out some of the biggest names on his list:

Tua Tagovailoa to the Cardinals. When the pocket and the throwing windows are clean, Tagovailoa can be a very accurate passer, and he can handle play action and motion concepts well. He’s not Jacoby Brissett, who is much bigger and more willing to hang in there and take a hit, but what if LaFleur uses 2026 as a building year around his quarterbacks and, halfway through, simply wants to see what Tagovailoa has?
Kyler Murray to the Jets. For as bad as the Jets were offensively in 2025, they do have the makings of a solid offensive line with some young pieces, a top wide receiver in Garrett Wilson and a top running back in Breece Hall, who received the franchise tag. Murray could get a short deal that would give him a chance to prove he’s the answer.
Joe Flacco to the Falcons. In this scenario, Joe Flacco would reconnect with Kevin Stefanski, who took the Falcons’ job this offseason after getting fired by the Browns. Michael Penix Jr. is coming off yet another ACL tear, and between that and his uneven showings when he has played, he might be penciled in as the 2026 starter, but it’s not written in ink yet.

If you want to know where Malik Willis, Kirk Cousins or Anthony Richardson might end up, Zach has predictions for those three quarterbacks here.

4. Dolphins trade Minkah Fitzpatrick to the Jets

The Dolphins started the day by announcing that Tua Tagovailoa will be released this week and they’ve just another big move by trading Minkah Fitzpatrick to the Jets. It’s not often you see a team trade a five-time Pro Bowler to a division rival, but that’s exactly what is happening here.

Here are the terms of the deal (via ESPN):

Jets get: Minkah Fitzpatrick
Dolphins get: 2026 seventh-round pick

As part of the deal, Fitzpatrick will be getting a three-year, $40 million deal from the Jets. For the Dolphins, the move will create $5.85 million in salary cap space.

This is the second time in less than a week that the Jets have added a defensive player in a trade (along with T’Vondre Sweat), so Aaron Glenn is getting serious about revamping his defense in New York:

Let’s grade the trade:

Jets grade: B+. The Jets became the first team in NFL history to go an entire season without recording an interception, so adding some help in the secondary was an absolute must and the fact that they only gave up a seventh-round pick to land Fitzpatrick makes this deal look like a winner for New York. Fitzpatrick is a three-time first-team All-Pro who will instantly make the Jets’ defense better.
Dolphins grade: C-. At this point, it seems like the Dolphins have given up on the 2026 season. It makes sense that they’re starting over, but they’re only saving $5.85 million in cap space with this trade and they basically gave Fitzpatrick away for free to a DIVISION RIVAL, so even though I get the logic behind the trade, the deal still doesn’t make much sense.

We’ve got the full story on the trade here. And if you want a more detailed look at our grades, we’ve got that here.

5. Mock Draft Monday: Cowboys make trade into top 10

If you’ve been reading this newsletter since the end of the Super Bowl, then you know that the first day of every week here is known as Mock Draft Monday, and yes, we’re even going to sneak in a mock draft today even though free agency is starting.

Today’s mock comes from CBS Sports college football writer Tom Fornelli. Let’s check out his top 10:

1. Raiders: QB Fernando Mendoza (Indiana)
2. Jets: LB Arvell Reese (Ohio State)
3. Cardinals: EDGE David Bailey (Texas Tech)
4. Titans: RB Jeremiyah Love (Notre Dame)
5. Giants: WR Carnell Tate (Ohio State)
6. Browns: OT Francis Mauigoa (Miami)
7. Commanders: EDGE Rueben Bain (Miami)
8. Saints: WR Makai Lemon (USC)
9. Cowboys (via trade with Chiefs: LB Sonny Styles (Ohio State)
10. Bengals: S Caleb Downs (Ohio State)

The Cowboys are in some serious need of some defensive help and Fornelli has them getting that help by making a bold trade into the top 10. The Cowboys currenlty have the 12th overall pick, so in this situation, they would move up three spots in a trade with Kansas City to land Styles at ninth overall.

This is just his top 10, if you want the rest of Fornelli’s mock draft, we have that here.

For more draft coverage, you can hear in-depth analysis twice a week on “With the First Pick” — our year-round NFL Draft podcast with NFL Draft analyst Ryan Wilson. You can find “With the First Pick” wherever you get your podcasts: Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube.

6. Extra points: Cowboys make trade with Packers

It’s been a busy past few days in the NFL, and since it’s nearly impossible to keep track of everything, I put together a quick roundup for you.

Cowboys add pass-rushing help in trade with Packers. Rashan Gary posted a good bye letter to Green Bay on social media last week and although he later stated he was hacked, he might want to just go ahead and re-publish the letter, because it looks like he’s leaving Green Bay. The Packers are finalizing a deal with the Cowboys that would send Gary to Dallas. The Packers are expected to get a 2027 fourth-round pick in the deal, according to NFL Media.
Rams sign Trent McDuffie to record-setting deal. After trading a first-round pick to acquire Trent McDuffie, the Rams are making sure that he won’t be leaving L.A. any time soon. The team has signed him to a four-year, $121 million contract extension, which makes McDuffie the highest paid corner in NFL history. We have the full details on the deal here.
Travis Kelce expected to play this year. According to the Athletic, Kelce is “motivated to return” this year, but there’s no guarantee that he’ll end up signing with the Chiefs. On the other hand, the Associated Press has revealed that if Kelce plays this year, it will be with the Chiefs or no one. Kelce still hasn’t revealed what he’s going to do, but based on his comments this offseason, it does seem like he’s leaning toward playing and it’s hard to imagine him playing anywhere outside of Kansas City.
Bills re-sign Connor McGovern. The former Pro Bowl center won’t be hitting free agency after agreeing to a four-year, $52 million extension that includes $32 million in guaranteed money. This is a huge signing for the Bills, who simply couldn’t afford to lose McGovern. The center was ranked as the ninth best player in free agency in Prisco’s top 100 just to give you an idea of how big this move was for the Bills.
Maxx Crosby trade grades. By now, you’ve probably heard about the fact that Maxx Crosby got traded to the Ravens, but you might be wondering if this move made sense for both teams. We answered that question by handing out some grades here.