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The 2026 men’s NCAA tournament is rapidly approaching, which means the question top of mind for many fans is: Will your team be in or out? Teams have roughly three weeks until Selection Sunday to strengthen their cases. Until then, we’re here to track how each team on the “bubble” of the bracket is trending.
We’ll use a variety of metrics as guides, classifying teams based on how likely they are to make the field of 68 as one of the 37 at-large selections — conditional on not winning their respective conference tournaments for one of the 31 automatic qualifying bids (AQs). To that end, we’ll use Joe Lunardi’s Bracketology projections and a combination of data sources — including my forecast-model consensus and NCAA résumé metrics such as NET rankings that the selection committee will evaluate — to judge a team’s underlying potential. (For a full glossary of terms and sources, click here or scroll to the bottom of this story.)
Editor’s Picks
We’ll sort teams in at-large contention into the following categories:
Locks: Teams that have nearly a 100% chance to be called by the committee as an at-large selection (if necessary). They would need a significant change in momentum to miss the cut. 27 current teams
Should be in: Teams tracking safely above the cutline (generally 75% consensus at-large odds or better), but not immune to trouble. Most likely, these teams should hear their names called on March 15, though their fates are not yet assured. 11 current teams
Work to do: Teams whose upcoming results will meaningfully change their fate (for good or bad). These are the truest “on the bubble” teams, because their chances are closest to a coin flip, though their consensus at-large odds may be as low as 10%. 17 current teams
Teams beyond these categories would need to outperform expectations or benefit from chaos. There is little — though not zero — chance any team not listed here will make the Big Dance without winning its conference tournament.
Now let’s go conference by conference — in order of which project to have the most NCAA tournament bids — to rank the teams in each category based on their chances to secure an at-large bid.
Note: All times Eastern.
Jump to a conference:
SEC | Big Ten | ACC
Big 12 | Big East
Mid-majors
9.9 expected bids (8.9 at-large)
Florida Gators
Vanderbilt Commodores
Tennessee Volunteers
Alabama Crimson Tide
Arkansas Razorbacks
Kentucky Wildcats
Updated: Feb. 24, 9:22 p.m.
Three consecutive losses — to Florida, Georgia and Auburn — meant we had to downgrade Kentucky from a “lock” recently, but the Wildcats got back to business with a win at South Carolina on Tuesday. Their résumé features five Quadrant 1 wins, enough to rank around the top 30 nationally in our résumé average, and is still comfortably sixth-best in the SEC, which projects to send as many as 11 teams in the recent Bracketology. Even with 10 losses, it helps that seven came to Quadrant 1A foes. A bigger concern is that they still have one of the nation’s toughest remaining schedules, with all three games against Quadrant 1 foes (including a Quadrant 1A in Florida).
Next game: vs. Vanderbilt (Saturday)
Georgia Bulldogs
Updated: Feb. 21, 5:37 p.m.
On the heels of a résumé-boosting win over Kentucky at Rupp Arena earlier this week, Georgia added another when it knocked off SEC bubble rival Texas on Saturday. It’s been a roller-coaster season for the Dawgs: After winning 16 of their first 19 games, they lost five of their next six and fell from a 97% to 66% consensus at-large chance in the span of three weeks — but those chances are back up to 92% after the double-digit victory over the Longhorns. Georgia now sits inside the top 40 of the overall résumé rankings, with seven wins against the BPI top 50, and ranks seventh in résumé average within what should be at least a 10-bid SEC. Toward the end of a challenging stretch of games, the Dawgs have the conference’s third-easiest remaining schedule according to the BPI, another reason to be bullish on their tournament fate.
Next game: at Vanderbilt (Wednesday)
Texas A&M Aggies
Updated: Feb. 22, 7:36 a.m.
The Aggies’ chances had been tumbling after they dropped four straight, downgrading them from “should be in” to “work to do.” But a remarkable comeback against Ole Miss followed by a solid victory at Oklahoma on Saturday provided a pair of important wins for their tournament hopes. The Aggies are still 10th in the résumé ranking average out of what’s looking like a 10-bid SEC, putting them right on the bubble, but notching a fourth Quadrant 1 win helps raise their at-large profile — and their consensus odds, which now sit at 79%.
Next game: at Arkansas (Wednesday)
Auburn Tigers
Updated: Feb. 24, 11:16 p.m.
The Tigers stopped their five-game losing streak with Saturday’s dramatic victory over Kentucky, but the relief only turned out to be temporary — they lost again at Oklahoma on Tuesday to cast more doubt on their tournament outlook. They still have a fascinating case: Though all but one of their recent losses came against Quadrant 1 opponents, they do have five Quadrant 1 wins against the nation’s fourth-most difficult schedule per the BPI, and remain top-40 in the national résumé ranking average. On paper, those types of teams tend to receive an at-large call more often than not, which explains why their at-large chances are better than perhaps one would expect based on their 6-9 record in SEC play. They will be an interesting litmus test for what the committee values.
Next game: vs. Mississippi (Saturday)
Texas Longhorns
Updated: Feb. 22, 7:37 a.m.
Texas’ five-game winning streak came to an end Saturday at Georgia. Going into the day, the consensus forecast gave the Longhorns better than an 80% at-large chance — up from 45% three weeks ago — and the 91-80 road loss dropped them down to a consensus 70% at-large probability. They still have more Quadrant 1 wins than newly promoted Texas A&M, though. They’re also ninth in the conference in résumé rankings (borderline top 40 nationally), and better than that in the predictive rating (consistently around the top 35). The loss to Georgia was just the first leg of a tough remaining slate, with three of their final four regular-season contests against Quadrant 1 opponents, which helps explain why their odds aren’t higher.
Next game: vs. Florida (Wednesday)
Missouri Tigers
Updated: Feb. 24, 11:03 p.m.
Coming off Saturday’s loss at Arkansas — their second in three games — the Tigers needed a win to stabilize their at-large chances, and they got it hosting Tennessee on Tuesday. They still rank just 11th among SEC teams in the résumé average (borderline mid-40s nationally), a scary spot to be in with the conference projected for 10-11 tournament entries. They do have five Quadrant 1 wins, and in many ways, are the anti-Auburn: They have a much better record (19-9 vs. 15-13) against a much easier schedule (66th hardest vs. fourth). While the top models and résumé composites favor Auburn mathematically, it’s getting closer recently — and Missouri still has a case from a W-L perspective.
Next game: at Mississippi State (Saturday)
9.8 expected bids; 8.8 at-large
Michigan Wolverines
Purdue Boilermakers
Illinois Fighting Illini
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Michigan State Spartans
Wisconsin Badgers
Iowa Hawkeyes
Updated: Feb. 22, 6:15 p.m.
After a run of six straight wins, the Hawkeyes have now lost three of four, running out of gas in the second half at Wisconsin on Sunday. The exception to that four-game stretch was a Quadrant 1A win over Nebraska last Tuesday (Iowa’s second such win this season). The Hawkeyes’ résumé also still sits in the low 30s nationally — in addition to being borderline top 25 in our average of predictive ratings — so their tournament hopes are not shaky. However, their remaining schedule is no breeze, jumping from 67th to 14th nationally (third hardest in the Big Ten), according to the BPI. Taking care of business as a favorite over Ohio State and Penn State, then knocking off either Michigan or Nebraska to close the regular season, would be a good stretch run formula.
Next game: vs. Ohio State (Wednesday)
UCLA Bruins
Updated: Feb. 22, 7:44 a.m.
A stretch of five wins in six games had pushed the Bruins’ consensus at-large chances near 80% until that hot streak cooled off in a recent tour of Michigan, with the Wolverines and Spartans thumping UCLA in consecutive games. Desperate for a win hosting No. 10 Illinois on Saturday, the Bruins won in overtime on Donovan Dent’s Tyus Edney-style coast-to-coast layup. It was their third Quadrant 1 win of the season (second Quad 1A), their résumé still ranks in the 40s nationally, and their predictive rating is better than their résumé gives them credit for. Even if the Big Ten gets 10 bids, it’s still not totally clear that the Bruins would be in line for one of the last of those, but beating the Illini helped raise their consensus at-large odds back up to 85%, which lands them here for now.
Next game: vs. USC (Tuesday)
Indiana Hoosiers
Updated: Feb. 24, 9:10 p.m.
After a run of five wins in six games, Indiana has now lost three straight to Illinois, Purdue and Northwestern, shaving the Hoosiers’ conditional at-large probability down to the 60% range. Their portfolio can stand up next to other bubble teams — they rank mid-40s in the national résumé average, no worse than 10th among the Big Ten in what’s looking like a 10-bid conference — and they remain among the top 40 in the predictive metrics. But they just lost their most winnable remaining game to Northwestern and are likely to enter the Big Ten tournament in limbo.
Next game: vs. Michigan State (Sunday)
Ohio State Buckeyes
Updated: Feb. 22, 3:22 p.m.
Once again, the Buckeyes were unable to build upon their recent win over Wisconsin, falling at Michigan State on Sunday to bring their at-large odds back closer to a coin flip than not. They’re a better team than their current résumé indicates, ranking inside the top 40 of the predictive ratings, but they have been unable to escape the bubble for long stretches, placing in the mid-40s in the national résumé rankings — right on the cut line of a projected 10-bid league. Ohio State has a case based on overall résumé and schedule strength but is also 0-9 against Quadrant 1 opponents now. The main issue seems to be a lack of consistent momentum: Including Sunday’s defeat, the Buckeyes have alternated wins and losses in 20 of their past 22 games.
Next game: at Iowa (Wednesday)
USC Trojans
Updated: Feb. 22, 7:50 a.m.
A recent three-game win streak had helped pad USC’s bubble case, but losses to Ohio State, Illinois and Oregon — the latter of which came despite leading by six points with 1:10 to play — coupled with additional results across the Big Ten have sliced the Trojans’ at-large chances to just 25%. They still have a case to secure one of the Big Ten’s last entries with the 10th-best résumé ranking in what’s tracking to be a 10-bid conference. But the models are less bullish, because USC is outside the top 50 of the predictive ratings, with a trio of Quadrant 1 games remaining. For a team that needs every win, letting the Oregon game slip away will sting.
Next game: at UCLA (Tuesday)
8.1 expected bids; 7.1 at-large
Duke Blue Devils
Virginia Cavaliers
Louisville Cardinals
North Carolina Tar Heels
NC State Wolfpack
SMU Mustangs
Updated: Feb. 22, 7:58 a.m.
Just when the Mustangs took a hit in our projections by faltering late as road favorites at Syracuse last week, they rebounded with back-to-back wins, including Saturday’s 24-point blowout over Boston College. They have been neck and neck with Miami (and now Clemson) recently, fighting to be sixth best in what could be an eight-bid ACC. But SMU has elevated its consensus at-large chances to 94%, and all three teams are well clear of Virginia Tech and Cal — their closest bubble rivals within the conference.
Next game: at California (Wednesday)
Miami Hurricanes
Updated: Feb. 24, 11:18 p.m.
The Hurricanes have been on a roll in ACC play lately, adding to their recent résumé-boosting victories over North Carolina, NC State and Virginia Tech with another Quadrant 1 win over Florida State on Tuesday. Their at-large chances are now above those of Clemson and comparable to SMU’s, though all three teams are bunched closely together in the mid-30s of the national résumé quality ranking — the trio makes up Nos. 6-8 in the ACC in that regard, with a big gap over the rest of what projects to be non-tournament teams in an eight-bid conference. The BPI has Miami projected to win nearly 24 games now, so the Canes are in good shape.
Next game: vs. Boston College (Saturday)
Clemson Tigers
Updated: Feb. 22, 7:53 a.m.
Clemson has gotten ice-cold at the wrong time. The Tigers had been an ACC “lock” since Bubble Watch launched on Feb. 3, with a 97% or higher at-large probability in the forecast every day for the past three weeks — until Saturday. They fell below that threshold with their fourth loss in a row, this time to Quadrant 3 Florida State. They still rank in the low-to-mid 30s nationally on résumé (no worse than eighth in the ACC) and their consensus chances are still around 90% despite the slump. But they have been downgraded as a result, trending lower in the conference’s pecking order according to the odds.
Next game: at Virginia (Tuesday)
Virginia Tech Hokies
Updated: Feb. 21, 2:26 p.m.
Regrouping from the disappointment of Tuesday’s loss to Miami, the Hokies bested Wake Forest by 19 on Saturday to keep their bubble case in play. They do have ammunition in their battle to be possibly the last ACC team called to the brackets, including three Quadrant 1 wins and a résumé rating that is borderline top 50. But their conditional at-large chances are still south of 30%, suggesting they are in serious limbo if they don’t knock off North Carolina and/or Virginia as well in the next couple of weeks.
Next game: at North Carolina (Saturday)
California Golden Bears
Updated: Feb. 21, 8:13 p.m.
Back-to-back losses to Clemson and Syracuse splashed cold water on Cal’s hopes, but victories over Boston College and Stanford got the Golden Bears moving back in the right direction. They still sit outside the top 50 on the résumé ranking, but they also have four Quadrant 1 wins and face the ACC’s second-easiest remaining schedule. That doesn’t leave many more signature-win chances, though. And with a consensus at-large probability floating barely above 20%, the Bears certainly have work to do.
Next game: vs. SMU (Wednesday)
7.3 expected bids (6.3 at-large)
Arizona Wildcats
Houston Cougars
Iowa State Cyclones
Kansas Jayhawks
Texas Tech Red Raiders
BYU Cougars
UCF Knights
Updated: Feb. 22, 8:05 a.m.
With so many of the Big 12’s expected bids being locks — the six teams listed above each have 100% conditional at-large chances in the model consensus — the conference’s bubble picture really starts with who could be the seventh bid. The Knights had been losing their grip on that spot with three straight losses to Houston, Cincinnati and West Virginia, but they regained much of it (and are back up to 82% at-large odds) with wins over bubble rival TCU and then Utah on Saturday. The victories pushed their full-season projection back up to near 21 wins and helped them close in on the top 30 in the résumé average — a good place to be, since no other non-“lock” from the Big 12 is even inside the top 50. With the fifth-easiest remaining schedule in the conference, the Knights are back in the driver’s seat, at least for now.
Next game: at BYU (Tuesday)
TCU Horned Frogs
Updated: Feb. 24, 11:36 p.m.
The Horned Frogs continue to make a run at the Big 12’s final at-large nod with their fifth win in six games, beating Arizona State at home on Tuesday. Although they sit with a consensus at-large chance below 50%, they have four Quadrant 1 wins, and have one more chance to add another coming up against Texas Tech on March 3. They have a clear case to be the conference’s eighth tournament team, though if seven ends up being the Big 12’s magic number, they’re in trouble.
Next game: at Kansas State (Saturday)
Cincinnati Bearcats
Updated: Feb. 24, 9:17 p.m.
The Bearcats’ late-season bid to inject life into the bubble with their upset of Kansas — by 16 points at Allen Fieldhouse! — for their fourth consecutive win was fun while it lasted. Tuesday’s loss to Texas Tech threatens to send them back into longshot territory. They are only borderline top 60 in the national résumé average — the rest of the bubble is generally around No. 45 — and they are projected to finish the season with 14-15 losses per the BPI. At this point, their case really relies on two signature wins: over Iowa State at home and at Kansas. The consensus model sets Cincinnati’s at-large chances in the single-digits now.
Next game: vs. Oklahoma State (Saturday)
3.2 expected bids (2.2 at-large)
UConn Huskies
St. John’s Red Storm
Villanova Wildcats
None
Seton Hall Pirates
Updated: Feb. 21, 8:27 p.m.
Wednesday’s 12-point home loss to DePaul put a dent in the Pirates’ chances, only mitigated slightly by Saturday’s victory over Georgetown. Their at-large chances sit at 13% in the forecast composite, while they rank outside the top 50 nationally in résumé average with only a single Quadrant 1 win. A case will be hard to make if the Big East receives only three bids, which is the current Bracketology expectation, so Seton Hall’s last chances to impress the committee would be to upset UConn (Feb. 28 on the road) or St. John’s (March 6 at home).
Next game: at UConn (Saturday)
Gonzaga Bulldogs (West Coast Conference)
Utah State Aggies (Mountain West)
Saint Louis Billikens (Atlantic 10)
Updated: Feb. 24, 9:12 p.m.
The Billikens are a great story in their second season with Josh Schertz at the helm and a cast of five double-figure scorers led by bespectacled big man Robbie Avila, tracking for the best SRS in program history. After they came back to beat bubble rival VCU by 13 points on Friday, they turned around and suffered their ugliest loss of the year: by 15 points at Dayton. The positives are that Saint Louis still ranks top-30 nationally in the résumé rankings and even better in the predictive ratings, so it’s hard to see this group not making the field as an at-large team if necessary. But there will be lessons to learn from Tuesday’s loss.
Next game: vs. Duquesne (Saturday)
Saint Mary’s Gaels (WCC)
Updated: Feb. 22, 8:15 a.m.
Despite trailing as halftime approached Saturday night, the Gaels handled Washington State to push their winning streak to six. They haven’t missed the NCAA tournament since 2022, so it’s tough to imagine that streak coming to an end, with the Gaels sitting 31st in the résumé rankings. Yet they’re here because they carry a consensus 88% at-large probability — not quite a “lock” — likely driven by the perennial question of how many WCC teams the NCAA can accommodate for the Dance after Gonzaga. One possible trouble spot: While their résumé is better than Santa Clara’s, the Gaels lost the first of the teams’ two head-to-head matchups. The Gaels also don’t have any Quadrant 1 wins — and likely won’t, unless they get revenge for their loss at Gonzaga when the two meet again on Feb. 28 in Moraga. But first, the rematch with Santa Clara awaits.
Next game: vs. Santa Clara (Wednesday)
Miami (Ohio) RedHawks (MAC)
Updated: Feb. 24, 8:26 p.m.
The MAC hasn’t received multiple bids since 1998-99 — fittingly, the same year Wally Szczerbiak led Miami (Ohio) to the Sweet 16 after knocking off Washington and Utah in the first two rounds. Could history repeat? Miami is the sole remaining unbeaten in Division I and ranks inside the top 40 on résumé as a result. The forecast models don’t quite know how to handle the RedHawks, though the committee has never excluded an eligible team with fewer than four losses in a non-pandemic season – and Miami (Ohio) made the field as an at-large team during an NCAA-ran mock selection exercise last week. It is true that the RedHawks are a mid-80s team in the predictive ratings (Akron actually still ranks higher in the MAC) and had just the 321st-hardest schedule in the nation. But wins are wins, and they held off Eastern Michigan on Tuesday for their 28th. They are now only three away from an undefeated regular season, which ESPN Analytics gives around a 60% chance to happen.
Next game: at Western Michigan (Friday)
Santa Clara Broncos (WCC)
Updated: Feb. 22, 8:14 a.m.
The Santa Clara and Saint Mary’s comparisons will be constant down the stretch as we debate whether the WCC could get three bids — which has happened only once in the past 13 seasons. The Broncos’ Feb. 14 loss to Gonzaga had dropped their chances some, but they bounced back Saturday to win against San Francisco, boosting their consensus at-large chances to 76%. They own the 40th-best résumé ranking and a head-to-head win over Saint Mary’s but are projected by the BPI to finish with two fewer wins than the Gaels. Santa Clara’s fate may rest on the Feb. 25 rematch in Moraga, and how much the selection committee values head-to-head wins.
Next game: at Saint Mary’s (Wednesday)
New Mexico Lobos (MW)
Updated: Feb. 21, 10:04 p.m.
Seeking a third straight NCAA tournament trip for the first time in more than a decade, New Mexico regained its edge as the Mountain West’s second-most-likely entrant (behind Utah State) by beating Air Force and Fresno State as San Diego State fell to both Grand Canyon and Colorado State. With the Aztecs’ losses, the Lobos’ consensus at-large chances are back around 60% — not exactly ideal but better than they were after losing to Boise State earlier this month. The primary blemish remains their head-to-head loss at San Diego State on Jan. 17, which they won’t have a chance to avenge until they play host on Feb. 28, but they have the momentum right now.
Next game: at Nevada (Tuesday)
VCU Rams (A-10)
Updated: Feb. 21, 9:32 a.m.
VCU hasn’t made back-to-back NCAA tournaments since the Will Wade era nearly a decade ago, and the forecast models (which sit in the mid-20% consensus at-large range) remain less than bullish on that streak ending this season. In part, that’s because the Rams are 0-5 against Quadrant 1 opponents, including a tough collapse at Saint Louis on Friday that hurt their at-large case. On the positive side, they are right in the middle of bubble territory in overall résumé (mid-40s nationally), they’ve still won 10 of 11, and their remaining schedule is soft enough for more wins. But it’s still totally up in the air if the A-10 will get a second NCAA entry (which has happened in three of the five years since the pandemic), and the Billikens would clearly be first in line for whatever bid(s) the conference does get.
Next game: vs. Fordham (Saturday)
San Diego State Aztecs (MW)
Updated: Feb. 22, 8:18 a.m.
The Aztecs seemed to be building momentum with three straight wins over Wyoming, Air Force and Nevada, but consecutive losses to Grand Canyon and Colorado State have taken a major toll on their consensus at-large chances: from 65% to just 27% now. After spending most of the season as one of the bubbliest of bubble teams, they’ve now slipped outside the top 50 nationally in the résumé ranking. The Mountain West could feasibly send three teams to the tournament — it hasn’t fallen below that threshold in five seasons — and with a fairly sizable gap in at-large chances over the next-best team (Boise State, at south of 5%), San Diego State could get in regardless. But if the Mountain West gets only two bids, New Mexico has the edge right now.
Next game: vs. Utah State (Wednesday)
Belmont Bruins (MVC)
Updated: Feb. 22, 8:18 a.m.
Belmont’s case for at-large consideration continues to grow after the Bruins beat Indiana State on Saturday for their 12th win in 13 games. They lead the nation in effective FG% and they are a top-50 team in our résumé composite, while the BPI currently projects them to clear 26 wins. Though they have no Quadrant 1 wins, they’ll get one more chance to improve on their 5-1 record against Quad 2 teams — against Illinois State on March 1 — which might be enough to garner attention from the committee even if they don’t win the Missouri Valley.
Next game: vs. Evansville (Wednesday)
Model consensus: A blend of the conditional at-large bid odds found via BartTorvik, TeamRankings, JThom Analytics and ESPN Analytics.
Résumé ranking: An average of rankings in strength of record (SOR), NET, KPI and wins above bubble (WAB).
Predictive ranking: An average of rankings in the Basketball Power Index (BPI), KenPom ratings (KP), Bart Torvik’s “Barthagorean” ratings, TeamRankings’ power ratings and Sports-Reference’s SRS ratings.
Strength of schedule and projected records are according to the BPI.
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