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The 2026 men’s NCAA tournament is rapidly approaching, which means the question top of mind for many fans is: Will your team be in or out? Teams have roughly four weeks until Selection Sunday to strengthen their cases. Until then, we’re here to track how each team on the “bubble” of the bracket is trending.
We’ll use a variety of metrics as guides, classifying teams based on how likely they are to make the field of 68 as one of the 37 at-large selections — conditional on not winning their respective conference tournaments for one of the 31 automatic qualifying bids (AQs). To that end, we’ll use Joe Lunardi’s Bracketology projections and a combination of data sources — including my forecast-model consensus and NCAA résumé metrics such as NET rankings that the selection committee will evaluate — to judge a team’s underlying potential. (For a full glossary of terms and sources, click here or scroll to the bottom of this story.)
Editor’s Picks
We’ll sort teams in at-large contention into the following categories:
Locks: Teams that would need a significant change in momentum to miss the cut. 26 current teams
Should be in: Teams tracking above the cutline, though their fates are not yet clear. 13 current teams
Work to do: The truest “on the bubble” teams, because their chances are closest to a coin flip. 15 current teams
Long shots: There is little — though not zero — chance they make the Big Dance as an at-large.
Let’s go conference by conference — in order of which project to have the most NCAA tournament bids — to rank the teams in each category based on their chances to secure an at-large bid.
Note: All times Eastern.
Jump to a conference:
Big Ten | SEC | ACC
Big 12 | Big East
Mid-majors
9.8 expected bids; 8.8 at-large
Michigan Wolverines
Illinois Fighting Illini
Purdue Boilermakers
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Michigan State Spartans
Wisconsin Badgers
Updated: Feb. 18, 7:15 a.m.
The Badgers’ recent run of impressive wins over tough foes (Illinois, Michigan State) finally came to an end Tuesday: Against Ohio State, they fell behind early and never really got within striking distance. Still, they’re in good shape. They own three Quadrant 1A wins on the season, with a résumé that now sits around 30th in the national consensus ranking (sixth in a Big Ten currently tracking for 10 bids). Their remaining schedule, 11th hardest in Big Ten, is manageable relative to the conference’s other non-locks. Their consensus at-large probability also sits at 97%. The Badgers ought to like their tourney trajectory.
Next game: vs. Iowa (Sunday)
Iowa Hawkeyes
Updated: Feb. 18, 7:15 a.m.
After back-to-back losses at Maryland and to Purdue ate into its at-large chances, Iowa got back on track with a big résumé-boosting Quadrant 1A win over Nebraska on Tuesday. What also helps is a résumé in the mid-to-low-30s nationally, and being borderline top 25 in our average of predictive ratings — both of which bode well for the Hawkeyes’ tournament hopes. Their remaining schedule is no cupcake, jumping from 60th so far to 12th from here on nationally (fourth hardest in the Big Ten), according to the BPI. That stated, Iowa’s consensus at-large chance (96%) in the models remains very high.
Next game: at Wisconsin (Sunday)
Indiana Hoosiers
Updated: Feb. 15, 8:17 p.m.
Coming off a run of five wins in six games — including three over Quadrant 1 and 2 opponents — Indiana’s hot streak cooled with a 20-point loss at Illinois on Sunday. The Hoosiers remain the darlings of the forecast models, which average out to give them a conditional at-large probability north of 80%, and their portfolio holds up next to other bubble teams in what’s looking like a 10-bid Big Ten. With a borderline top-30 ranking in the predictive metrics and the seventh-hardest remaining schedule in the conference, they have a chance to keep building their case.
Next game: at Purdue (Friday)
Ohio State Buckeyes
Updated: Feb. 18, 7:17 a.m.
After missing a prime opportunity to raise their at-large chances Saturday against Virginia in Nashville, the Buckeyes course-corrected Tuesday with a big résumé-boosting home win over Wisconsin that raised their at-large odds from 59% to 70% in a single night. They’re better than their current résumé indicates, ranking inside the top 40 of the predictive ratings. They’re also still right on the bubble, ranking in the mid-40s in the national résumé rankings and right on the cutline of a projected 10-bid league. That stated, they’re 0-8 against Quadrant 1 opponents, making them less of a tournament-bound team as they seemed earlier in the season. Their main issue, however, is a lack of consistent momentum: After beating the Badgers, the Buckeyes have alternated wins and losses in 19 of their past 21 games.
Next game: at Michigan State (Sunday)
UCLA Bruins
Updated: Feb. 17, 10:29 p.m.
A stretch of five wins in six games had pushed the Bruins’ consensus at-large chances near 80%, but that hot streak cooled off in a recent tour of Michigan, with the Wolverines and Spartans thumping UCLA in consecutive games. The Bruins do have two Quadrant 1 wins, their résumé still ranks in the 40s nationally, and their predictive rating is better than their résumé gives them credit for. But even if the conference gets 10 bids, it’s no longer as clear that the Bruins would be in line for one of the last of those, especially since difficult matchups against Illinois and Nebraska remain.
Next game: vs. Illinois (Saturday)
USC Trojans
Updated: Feb. 12, 7:14 a.m.
Behind the play of freshman star Alijah Arenas, USC’s recent win streak helped pad its bubble case. But in a crucial visit to Ohio State on Wednesday, the Trojans were unable to hang on to a second-half lead, which sliced their at-large chances below 60%. If the season ended today, they would still likely secure one of the Big Ten’s last entries with the eighth-best résumé ranking in what’s tracking to be a 10-bid conference. Of course, their main problem remains future results. which is why the models are less bullish. USC is a high-40s team in the predictive ratings, with the nation’s 23rd most difficult remaining schedule. The next three weeks will be a wild ride for Eric Musselman’s team.
Next game: vs. Illinois (Wednesday)
Washington Huskies
9.5 expected bids (8.5 at-large)
Florida Gators
Vanderbilt Commodores
Arkansas Razorbacks
Alabama Crimson Tide
Tennessee Volunteers
Kentucky Wildcats
Updated: Feb. 18, 7:31 a.m.
The Wildcats had moved into “lock” territory in the forecast models after defeating Tennessee on Feb. 7 for an eighth win in nine games. But then a pair of losses to Florida and, on Tuesday, Georgia at home, followed, dipping their odds down to 94% — still very strong, but enough to warrant further Bubble Watching. Their résumé (five Quadrant 1 wins, including three Quadrant 1A, enough to rank 27th nationally in our résumé average) is also still around sixth-best in the SEC, which projects to get nine or 10 tourney teams. So they’re comfortably above the danger zone for now. The biggest concern might be that they have the nation’s toughest remaining schedule per the BPI, with four of five games against Quadrant 1 foes (three against Quadrant 1A).
Next game: at Auburn (Saturday)
Georgia Bulldogs
Updated: Feb. 18, 7:32 a.m.
If losing to Georgia was enough to dip Kentucky down from the “locks”, then beating the Wildcats was enough to elevate the Dawgs to “should be in” territory. It’s been a roller-coaster for UGA already this season: After winning 16 of their first 19 games, the Bulldogs lost five of their next six and fell from a 97% consensus at-large chance to 66% in the span of three weeks. But those odds are up to 84% again after they grabbed their first Quadrant 1A win of the year at Kentucky. Georgia now sits 40th in the overall résumé rankings — with six wins against the BPI top 50 — and eighth in résumé average. Now mostly through a string of exceptionally tough matchups, it has the SEC’s easiest remaining schedule according to the BPI.
Next game: vs. Texas (Saturday)
Auburn Tigers
Updated: Feb. 14, 10:47 p.m.
Auburn’s fortunes continued to slide with a double-digit loss to Arkansas in Fayetteville on Saturday. While the Tigers’ four straight defeats have come against Quadrant 1 opponents — Tennessee, Alabama, Vanderbilt and Arkansas — they have dropped them to 5-7 in SEC play and complicated what once seemed like a strong tournament case. If we zoom out, the Tigers do have four Quadrant 1 wins (including two Quadrant 1A) against the nation’s fourth-most difficult schedule per the BPI, and they remain mid-30s in the national résumé ranking average. On paper, those types of teams tend to receive an at-large call, though the BPI is projecting them to potentially not even reach 18 wins. They will be a fascinating litmus test for how much the committee values record versus schedule strength.
Next game: at Mississippi State (Wednesday)
Texas Longhorns
Updated: Feb. 18, 7:29 a.m.
he Longhorns kept their hot streak rolling, following up Saturday’s impressive win at Mizzou by surviving LSU on Tuesday for a fifth straight win. Continuing a sharp upward trajectory in recent tournament projections, the consensus forecast now gives them an 80% at-large chance after the victory, up from 54% two weeks ago. They’re still 9th in the conference in the résumé rankings (borderline top 40 nationally), but their results have been catching up with their predictive rating, which has consistently been in the top 40 by contrast. They still face a tough slate, with four of their final five regular-season contests against Quadrant 1 opponents, so their tournament hopes might still rest on the SEC getting 10 bids. But Texas has made a strong case for itself in recent weeks.
Next game: at Georgia (Saturday)
Texas A&M Aggies
Updated: Feb. 14, 3:15 p.m.
Texas A&M’s consensus at-large chances reached well into the 80% range after opening SEC play on a 7-1 run, but the Aggies have dropped four straight — including Saturday’s loss at Vanderbilt — and their odds have gone tumbling. They now check in below 70%, downgrading them from “should be in” to “work to do.” They are still projected by the BPI to clear 20 wins by regular season’s end, but they also rank ninth in the résumé ranking average out of what could be only a nine-bid conference — even if it’s more likely 10 — and the gap between them and the rest of the SEC’s “work to do” tier has basically vanished.
Next game: vs. Mississippi (Wednesday)
Missouri Tigers
Updated: Feb. 14, 11:17 p.m.
On the heels of three straight wins (and four in five games) to revive what had been a flagging at-large probability, Missouri had a golden opportunity to add another résumé win over bubble nemesis Texas at home on Saturday. But the Tigers were outscored 52-37 after halftime, losing the critical matchup by 17 points. They rank just 11th among SEC teams in the résumé average — a tough spot to be in with the conference projected for 10 tournament entries by most accounts. They do have a pair of Quadrant 1A wins (Florida and Kentucky) and five against the BPI top 50, but even if their résumé is on par with Texas and Texas A&M, the Tigers are much lower in the predictive metrics — and play an even tougher remaining schedule per the BPI.
Next game: vs. Vanderbilt (Wednesday)
Oklahoma Sooners
LSU Tigers
8.1 expected bids; 7.1 at-large
Duke Blue Devils
Virginia Cavaliers
Louisville Cardinals
North Carolina Tar Heels
Clemson Tigers
NC State Wolfpack
Updated: Feb. 17, 9:09 p.m.
After satiating our criteria for a “lock,” with a 98% consensus at-large chance after a run of eight wins in nine games (including a pair of Quadrant 1A victories), back-to-back losses to Louisville and Miami pushed NC State back in “should be in” territory. But that change may not last long: The Wolfpack struck back with a dominant 82-58 home win over UNC on Tuesday, reaffirming why the metrics were originally so high on them. They still rank borderline top 30 nationally in the predictive and résumé ratings, including sixth on the résumé list in an ACC tracking for eight bids. But they also still face a significantly tougher remaining schedule (third hardest in the conference) than the ACC’s other bubble hopefuls. After games like Tuesday’s, it might not matter.
Next game: at Virginia (Tuesday)
Miami Hurricanes
Updated: Feb. 17, 10:11 p.m.
The Hurricanes are officially on a roll in ACC play after three straight résumé-boosting victories over North Carolina, NC State and, on Tuesday night, fellow Bubble Watch entry Virginia Tech. Their at-large odds had already pulled roughly even with SMU’s going into the day, with Miami boasting the superior résumé quality (seventh in the ACC vs. eighth for the Mustangs), and the Hurricanes’ consensus model at-large chances are up roughly 30% over the past three weeks, a very positive trend at a critical point in the season. The BPI has them facing the 68th-hardest remaining schedule, with three more chances to score Quadrant 1 wins (of which they already have four). With most projections calling for the ACC to have eight NCAA bids, the Canes are now in good shape to grab one of those.
Next game: at Virginia (Saturday)
SMU Mustangs
Updated: Feb. 17, 9:09 p.m.
Just when the Mustangs took a hit in our projections by faltering late as road favorites at Syracuse on Saturday, blowing a double-digit second-half lead to lose for the third time in five games, they rebounded with a double-digit home win over Louisville on Tuesday. After recently falling behind Miami, they rank eighth in what may be an eight-bid ACC on résumé. And though they are seventh in the conference (37th nationally) in the predictive ranking, they have the nation’s 73rd-hardest remaining schedule, which is good for managing a status quo that likely resides above the bubble if the bracket were set today with a consensus at-large chance in the mid-80% range.
Next game: vs. Boston College (Saturday)
Virginia Tech Hokies
Updated: Feb. 17, 10:11 p.m.
It’s always high stakes when two Bubble Watch teams face off at this stage of the season — as was the case when the Hokies visited Miami on Tuesday — and it’s hard to walk away the loser, which Virginia Tech was when it came up short against Tre Donaldson’s heroics. Coming off a huge road win over a Quadrant 1A foe in Clemson last Wednesday, Virginia Tech is trending back in the wrong direction with losses against Florida State and now Miami. The Hokies still have ammunition in their battle to be possibly the last ACC team called to the brackets, including three Quadrant 1 wins and a résumé rating that is borderline top 50. But their conditional at-large chances have been sliced roughly in half over the past three weeks, suggesting they are in serious limbo right now.
Next game: vs. Wake Forest (Saturday)
California Golden Bears
Updated: Feb. 14, 1:53 p.m.
Back-to-back losses to Clemson then in double overtime to Syracuse splashed cold water on Cal’s hopes, but a convincing victory at Boston College got the Golden Bears moving back in the right direction. They still sit outside the top 50 on the résumé ranking, but they also have four Quadrant 1 wins (including one Quadrant 1A) and face the ACC’s easiest remaining schedule. Either way, with a consensus at-large probability in the teens, the Bears certainly have “work to do.”
Next game: vs. Stanford (Saturday)
Stanford Cardinal
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
7.6 expected bids (6.6 at-large)
Arizona Wildcats
Houston Cougars
Iowa State Cyclones
Kansas Jayhawks
Texas Tech Red Raiders
BYU Cougars
UCF Knights
Updated: Feb. 17, 9:15 p.m.
With so many of the Big 12’s expected bids being effective locks — the six teams listed above each have at least 99% conditional at-large chances in the model consensus — the conference’s bubble picture really starts with who could be the seventh bid. The Knights had been losing their grip on that spot with three straight losses to Houston, Cincinnati and West Virginia, but they regained some of it with Tuesday’s crucial win over bubble rival TCU. The victory pushed their full-season projection back over 20 wins and helped them close back in on the top 30 in the résumé average. (That’s a good place to be, since no other non-“lock” from the Big 12 is even inside the top 50.) With the sixth-easiest remaining schedule in the conference, the Knights are back in the driver’s seat even if the Big 12 receives only seven bids, at least for now.
Next game: at Utah (Saturday)
TCU Horned Frogs
Updated: Feb. 17, 9:16 p.m.
The Horned Frogs had played themselves into a serious battle for one of the Big 12’s final at-large nods with a trio of big wins over Kansas State, Iowa State and Oklahoma State on the road in overtime. But that progress hit a snag with Tuesday’s loss at UCF, a result that put a serious dent in their tournament odds. Not that TCU’s case isn’t interesting: Although it sits with a consensus at-large chance in the range of 35% to 40%, the Horned Frogs have five Quadrant 1 wins (including a pair of Quadrant 1A wins over Florida and Iowa State) and one last chance to add another coming up against Texas Tech on March 3. They have a case to be the Big 12’s eighth tournament team, but if seven is the conference’s magic number, TCU is in trouble.
Next game: vs. West Virginia (Saturday)
West Virginia Mountaineers
Updated: Feb. 14, 8:31 p.m.
West Virginia still faces an uphill battle to return to the tournament for the first time since 2023, but its win at UCF on Saturday certainly helps. The model consensus still sets the Mountaineers’ chances at an at-large bid around 25%, and they are barely flirting with the top 60 in résumé rankings while only a little better in the predictive ranking. But they do have four wins against Quadrant 1 foes — including one against Quadrant 1A Kansas last month — and will have a chance to control their destiny by adding more in the coming weeks.
Next game: vs. Utah (Wednesday)
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Arizona State Sun Devils
Cincinnati Bearcats
Baylor Bears
3.2 expected bids (2.2 at-large)
UConn Huskies
St. John’s Red Storm
Villanova Wildcats
None
Seton Hall Pirates
Updated: Feb. 15, 8:17 p.m.
Just when the season seemed to be slipping away from Shaheen Holloway and his team with six losses in eight games, Seton Hall outlasted Providence on Wednesday then scored a résumé-boosting comeback win on Sunday at Butler in a game that would have plunged the Pirates into “long shot” territory had they lost. They still have a steep hill to climb, with at-large chances sitting below 30% in the forecast composite while ranking outside the top 50 nationally in résumé average with only two Quadrant 1 wins. A case will be hard to make if the Big East receives only three bids, which is the current Bracketology expectation, though the Pirates will have a couple of opportunities to pad their résumé if they can upset UConn (Feb. 28) or St. John’s (March 6).
Next game: vs. DePaul (Wednesday)
Creighton Bluejays
Gonzaga Bulldogs (West Coast Conference)
Utah State Aggies (Mountain West)
Saint Louis Billikens (Atlantic 10)
Updated: Feb. 18, 7:54 a.m.
The Billikens are a great story in their second season with Josh Schertz at the helm and a cast of characters that includes bespectacled big man Robbie Avila, tracking for the best SRS in program history. But Tuesday’s loss at Rhode Island did put a dent in their at-large odds, dropping them to 87% — which is how they’ve ended up back in the “should be in” zone. For now. Saint Louis ranks top-25 nationally in the résumé rankings and 24th in the predictive ratings, so it’s still hard to see this group not making the field as an at-large team if necessary. But the next game, against red-hot VCU, suddenly takes on more significance than it seemed a few days ago.
Next game: vs. VCU (Friday)
Saint Mary’s Gaels (WCC)
Updated: Feb. 15, 7:54 a.m.
Saint Mary’s hasn’t missed the NCAA tournament since 2022, so it’s tough to imagine that streak coming to an end, with the Gaels sitting 32nd in the résumé rankings. Yet they’re here because they carry a consensus 84% at-large probability — not quite a “lock” — likely driven by the perennial question of how many WCC teams the NCAA can accommodate for the Dance after Gonzaga. One possible trouble spot: While their résumé is better than that of Santa Clara’s, the Gaels lost the first of the teams’ two head-to-head matchups. The Gaels also don’t have any Quadrant 1 wins — and likely won’t, unless they get revenge for their loss at Gonzaga when the two meet again on Feb. 28 at Saint Mary’s.
Next game: at Seattle (Wednesday)
Miami (Ohio) RedHawks (MAC)
Updated: Feb. 17, 9:12 p.m.
The MAC hasn’t received multiple bids since 1998-99 — fittingly, the same year Wally Szczerbiak led the RedHawks to the Sweet 16 after knocking off Washington and Utah in the first two rounds. Could history repeat? After Arizona lost earlier this month, Miami is the sole remaining unbeaten Division I team and ranks inside the top 40 on résumé as a result. The forecast models don’t quite know how to handle the RedHawks, though the committee has never excluded an eligible team with fewer than four losses in a non-pandemic season. It is true that Miami is a mid-80s team in the predictive ratings (Akron actually still ranks higher in the MAC) that has run up an undefeated record against the 331st-hardest schedule in the nation. But wins are wins, and Miami got even closer to running the table on Tuesday, surviving a bit of a second-half scare to beat UMass in what might have been its toughest remaining test.
Next game: vs. Bowling Green (Friday)
Santa Clara Broncos (WCC)
Updated: Feb. 15, 7:54 a.m.
The Santa Clara and Saint Mary’s comparisons will be constant down the stretch, as we debate whether the WCC could get three bids, which has happened only once in the past 13 seasons. The Broncos’ chances had been on the rise after a recent stretch of nine consecutive wins (and 13 in 14 games), but a tough back-and-forth loss to Gonzaga on Saturday dropped their consensus at-large chances to 66%. They own the 41st-best résumé ranking and a head-to-head win over Saint Mary’s but are projected to finish with two fewer wins than the Gaels. Santa Clara’s fate may rest on the Feb. 25 rematch at Saint Mary’s, and how much the selection committee values head-to-head wins.
Next game: at San Francisco (Saturday)
New Mexico Lobos (MW)
Updated: Feb. 18, 7:53 a.m.
Seeking a third straight NCAA tournament trip for the first time in more than a decade, New Mexico regained its edge as the Mountain West’s second-most-likely entrant (behind Utah State) by doing in the past week what San Diego State couldn’t: beating Grand Canyon. After the Aztecs’ loss to the Lopes on Tuesday, UNM’s consensus at-large odds are at 42% — not exactly great, but better than they were after losing to Boise State earlier this month. The primary blemish remains the Lobos’ head-to-head loss at San Diego State on Jan. 17, which they won’t have a chance to avenge until they play host on Feb. 28.
Next game: vs. Air Force (Tuesday)
San Diego State Aztecs (MW)
Updated: Feb. 18, 7:53 a.m.
The Aztecs seemed to be building momentum after three straight wins over Wyoming, Air Force and Nevada, but Tuesday’s loss to Grand Canyon at home took a toll on their consensus at-large chances (which fell from 65% to 37%). In the big picture, they’re still one of the bubbliest of bubble teams, sitting 44th nationally in the résumé ranking. The conference could also feasibly send three teams to the tournament — it hasn’t fallen below that threshold in five seasons — and with a fairly sizable gap in at-large chances over the next-best Mountain West team (Boise State at 6%), San Diego State might get in regardless. But, should the Mountain West only get two, as many of the current projections call for, New Mexico may have the edge right now.
Next game: at Colorado State (Saturday)
VCU Rams (A-10)
Updated: Feb. 17, 10:25 p.m.
VCU hasn’t made back-to-back NCAA tournaments since the Will Wade era nearly a decade ago, and the forecast models (which sit in the borderline 30% consensus at-large range) remain less than bullish on that streak ending this season, in part because the Rams are 0-4 against Quadrant 1 opponents with only one remaining shot at changing that (at Saint Louis on Friday). However, they are right in the middle of bubble territory in overall résumé (mid-40s nationally), and their remaining schedule is soft enough for more wins, so they can certainly strengthen their case. After pulling away from George Washington on Tuesday night, the Rams have now won an impressive 10 in a row and 15 of 17. Their next game against the Billikens, who just suffered a rare loss to another set of Rams (Rhode Island), will be massive for their at-large résumé.
Next game: at Saint Louis (Friday)
Belmont Bruins (MVC)
Boise State Broncos (MW)
South Florida Bulls (American)
Grand Canyon Lopes (MW)
Nevada Wolf Pack (MW)
Tulsa Golden Hurricane (American)
Liberty Flames (C-USA)
McNeese Cowboys (Southland)
George Mason Patriots (A-10)
Model consensus: A blend of the conditional at-large bid odds found via BartTorvik, TeamRankings, JThom Analytics and ESPN Analytics.
Résumé ranking: An average of rankings in strength of record (SOR), NET, KPI and wins above bubble (WAB).
Predictive ranking: An average of rankings in the Basketball Power Index (BPI), KenPom ratings (KP), Bart Torvik’s “Barthagorean” ratings, TeamRankings’ power ratings and Sports-Reference’s SRS ratings.
Strength of schedule and projected records are according to the BPI.
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