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The 2026 men’s NCAA tournament is rapidly approaching, which means the question top of mind for many fans is: Will your team be in or out? Teams have roughly two weeks until Selection Sunday to strengthen their cases. Until then, we’re here to track how each team on the “bubble” of the bracket is trending.
We’ll use a variety of metrics as guides, classifying teams based on how likely they are to make the field of 68 as one of the 37 at-large selections — conditional on not winning their respective conference tournaments for one of the 31 automatic qualifying bids (AQs). To that end, we’ll use Joe Lunardi’s Bracketology projections and a combination of data sources — including my forecast-model consensus and NCAA résumé metrics such as NET rankings that the selection committee will evaluate — to judge a team’s underlying potential. (For a full glossary of terms and sources, click here or scroll to the bottom of this story.)
Editor’s Picks
We’ll sort teams in at-large contention into the following categories:
Locks: Teams that have nearly a 100% chance to be called by the committee as an at-large selection (if necessary). They would need a significant change in momentum to miss the cut. 27 current teams
Should be in: Teams tracking safely above the cutline (generally 75% consensus at-large odds or better), but not immune to trouble. Most likely, these teams should hear their names called on March 15, though their fates are not yet assured. 11 current teams
Work to do: Teams whose upcoming results will meaningfully change their fate (for good or bad). These are the truest “on the bubble” teams, because their chances are closest to a coin flip, though their consensus at-large odds may be as low as 10%. 17 current teams
Teams beyond these categories have very slim chances to make the Big Dance without winning their conference tournament.
Now let’s go conference by conference — in order of which project to have the most NCAA tournament bids — to rank the teams in each category based on their chances to secure an at-large bid.
Note: All times Eastern.
Jump to a conference:
SEC | Big Ten | ACC
Big 12 | Big East
Mid-majors
9.9 expected bids (8.9 at-large)
Florida Gators
Alabama Crimson Tide
Vanderbilt Commodores
Arkansas Razorbacks
Tennessee Volunteers
Kentucky Wildcats
Updated: Feb. 28, 4:10 p.m.
Three straight losses to Florida, Georgia and Auburn meant we had to downgrade Kentucky from a “lock” recently, but the Wildcats got back to business this week with wins over South Carolina and Vanderbilt. Their résumé now features six Quadrant 1 victories, placing them inside the top 30 nationally in our résumé average, and sixth-best in an SEC that projects to send as many as 11 teams to the tournament. Of their 10 losses, seven came to Quadrant 1A foes.
Next game: at Texas A&M (Tuesday)
Georgia Bulldogs
Updated: Feb. 28, 5:47 p.m.
Georgia rebounded from a failed comeback bid at Vanderbilt to beat South Carolina on Saturday for its third win in four games, boosting the Dawgs’ consensus at-large chances closer to 95%. They now sit mid-30s in the overall résumé rankings, with four wins against Quadrant 1 foes, ranking seventh in résumé average within what should be at least a 10-bid SEC. Mostly on the other side of a challenging stretch of games, Georgia will close the regular season hosting Alabama before visiting Mississippi State in the finale.
Next game: vs. Alabama (Tuesday)
Missouri Tigers
Updated: Feb. 28, 3:10 p.m.
Coming off an important win over Tennessee, Missouri got another on Saturday at Mississippi State in its sixth victory in eight games. The Tigers have now cracked the top nine of SEC teams in the résumé average (borderline top 40 nationally), a favorable spot with the conference projected for 10 to 11 tournament entries. If it comes down to in-conference comparisons, they do have five Quadrant 1 wins and a much better record than a team such as Auburn (19-9 vs. 15-13), albeit against a much easier schedule (65th hardest vs. fourth). The at-large forecast models continue to like the chances for Dennis Gates’ team, as they sit around 80% with two Quadrant 1 games to close the regular season.
Next game: at Oklahoma (Tuesday)
Texas A&M Aggies
Updated: Feb. 28, 6:23 p.m.
Losses at Arkansas then to Texas have sent Texas A&M’s consensus at-large chances tumbling from “should be in” to “work to do” territory. Parsing the Aggies’ résumé against other SEC bubble teams Texas and Auburn will not be an easy task for the committee. They close out the regular season against Kentucky and LSU.
Next game: vs. Kentucky (Tuesday)
Texas Longhorns
Updated: Feb. 28, 6:23 p.m.
After blowing a second-half lead to Florida for its second consecutive loss earlier this week, Texas got a massive road win over bubble rival Texas A&M on Saturday. It stopped a two-game losing streak for the Longhorns and provided them a sixth Quadrant 1 win of the season — more than Georgia, Missouri, Texas A&M or Auburn can boast. The consensus forecast still sets their at-large chances in the 70% range, up from 45% earlier in the month but still down from their peak. They are also neck and neck with Missouri, Texas A&M and Auburn in the SEC résumé rankings (all are borderline top 40 nationally), so their tournament fate still hangs in the balance.
Next game: at Arkansas (Wednesday)
Auburn Tigers
Updated: Feb. 28, 10:37 p.m.
The Tigers continue to cast more doubt on their tournament outlook, losing as big home favorites to Ole Miss after yielding a 14-3 run in the second half. Auburn has an interesting case, but it has all but run out of wiggle room: While the Tigers have five Quadrant 1 wins against the nation’s fourth-most difficult schedule per the BPI, and are borderline top-40 in the national résumé ranking average, their 14 losses are the most among the SEC bubble tier. Teams with résumés most similar to Auburn have tended to miss out on an at-large bid more often than not, per BartTorvik.
Next game: vs. LSU (Tuesday)
9.2 expected bids; 8.2 at-large
Michigan Wolverines
Purdue Boilermakers
Illinois Fighting Illini
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Michigan State Spartans
Wisconsin Badgers
Iowa Hawkeyes
Updated: Feb. 28, 2:52 p.m.
With Wednesday’s victory over fellow Big Ten bubble team Ohio State barely in the rearview, Iowa let Saturday’s game against Penn State slip away late as a big favorite. The Hawkeyes’ résumé still sits in the low-30s nationally — in addition to being top 25 in our average of predictive ratings — so their tournament hopes remain in relatively good shape. But the trip to State College was supposed to be the easy leg of their remaining schedule, as they close out the regular season against Michigan and Nebraska.
Next game: vs. Michigan (Thursday)
UCLA Bruins
Updated: Feb. 28, 4:01 p.m.
The Bruins’ brief winning streak against Illinois and crosstown bubble rival USC came to an end on Saturday at Minnesota. Despite the loss, they have three Quadrant 1 victories on the season, placing their résumé eighth in what Bracketology projects to be a nine-bid Big Ten. Their consensus at-large odds remain around 90% in the forecast models.
Next game: vs. Nebraska (Tuesday)
Indiana Hoosiers
Updated: Feb. 24, 9:10 p.m.
After a run of five wins in six games, Indiana has now lost three straight to Illinois, Purdue and Northwestern, shaving the Hoosiers’ conditional at-large probability down to the 60% range. Their portfolio can stand up next to other bubble teams — they rank mid-40s in the national résumé average, no worse than 10th among the Big Ten in what’s looking like a nine-bid conference — and they remain among the top 40 in the predictive metrics. But they just lost their most winnable remaining game to Northwestern and are likely to enter the Big Ten tournament in limbo.
Next game: vs. Michigan State (Sunday)
Ohio State Buckeyes
Updated: Feb. 25, 11:15 p.m.
When we noted that the Buckeyes needed more consistency after alternating wins and losses for so long, they were looking for a winning streak — not the back-to-back losses they got against Michigan State and Iowa this week. Their at-large chances now sit in the high-50% range, casting doubt on a tournament profile that seemed much stronger not long ago. Ohio State is a better team than its current résumé indicates, ranking inside the top 40 of the predictive ratings. But the Buckeyes have been unable to escape the bubble for very long, ranking in the mid-40s in the résumé rankings — right on the cutline both nationally and for a projected nine- or 10-bid Big Ten. After the Iowa loss, they are now 1-10 against Quadrant 1 opponents and 0-9 vs. Quadrant 1A specifically. Remaining games against Purdue and Indiana loom large.
Next game: vs. Purdue (Sunday)
USC Trojans
Updated: Feb. 28, 6:38 p.m.
A three-game winning streak to open February had helped pad USC’s bubble case, but five straight losses — including to a ranked Nebraska team on Saturday — have sliced the Trojans’ at-large chances to around 10%. They have the 11th-best résumé ranking in what’s trending to be just a nine-bid conference.
Next game: at Washington (Wednesday)
8.1 expected bids; 7.1 at-large
Duke Blue Devils
Virginia Cavaliers
North Carolina Tar Heels
Louisville Cardinals
NC State Wolfpack
Miami Hurricanes
Updated: Feb. 28, 4:15 p.m.
The Hurricanes have been on a roll in ACC play, adding to their recent résumé-boosting victories over North Carolina, NC State, Virginia Tech and Florida State with a one-sided win over Boston College on Saturday. Their at-large chances (near 90%) and national résumé quality ranking (around top 30) are bunched up next to SMU and Clemson — the trio all fit within the top eight of the ACC with a big gap over the rest of what projects to be an eight-bid conference. A couple of tough opponents are next in SMU and Louisville, but the Canes are in good shape.
Next game: at SMU (Wednesday)
SMU Mustangs
Updated: Feb. 28, 8:12 p.m.
The Mustangs improved their projections over the past few weeks, but back-to-back losses at California and Stanford slowed that momentum. They have been neck and neck with Miami and Clemson, jockeying for the sixth position in what could be an eight-bid ACC. Despite the defeats, SMU’s consensus at-large chances are in the 80% range, near both the Hurricanes and the Tigers; and all three teams are well clear of the conference’s “work to do” tier featuring Cal and Virginia Tech. The Mustangs will try to get back on track against Miami then Florida State.
Next game: vs. Miami (Wednesday)
Clemson Tigers
Updated: Feb. 28, 4:21 p.m.
Clemson built a double-digit second-half lead against a ranked Louisville team for its fourth Quadrant 1 win of the season. The Tigers rank in the low-to-mid-30s nationally on résumé (no worse than eighth in the ACC), and their consensus chances are around 90% — down from 98% after their recent slump, but still high enough in the conference’s pecking order to feel optimistic about their chances ahead of dates with North Carolina and Georgia Tech to close out the regular season.
Next game: at North Carolina (Tuesday)
California Golden Bears
Updated: Feb. 28, 6:20 p.m.
After Cal’s recent stretch of victories over Boston College, Stanford and SMU breathed life into the Golden Bears’ at-large odds, a double-digit Quadrant 3 home loss to Pittsburgh changed their trajectory. They currently sit around 50th nationally in the résumé ranking — borderline bubble territory — and have four Quadrant 1 wins. But with a consensus at-large probability now in the 20% range, with only one more chance at a Quadrant 1 victory (at Wake Forest on March 7), the Bears are in a less-than-ideal spot.
Next game: at Georgia Tech (Wednesday)
Virginia Tech Hokies
Updated: Feb. 28, 10:51 p.m.
Virginia Tech’s big win over Wake Forest last week kept its bubble case in play, but Saturday’s loss at North Carolina was the Hokies’ fifth in seven games and dropped their consensus at-large chances into the teens. They do have ammunition in their battle to be possibly the last ACC team called to the brackets, including a pair of Quadrant 1A wins and a résumé rating that is borderline top 50. But with a 7-9 ACC record now, they are still in limbo.
Next game: vs. Boston College (Tuesday)
7.6 expected bids (6.6 at-large)
Arizona Wildcats
Iowa State Cyclones
Houston Cougars
Kansas Jayhawks
Texas Tech Red Raiders
BYU Cougars
UCF Knights
Updated: Feb. 28, 10:29 p.m.
With recent wins over TCU, Utah and BYU, the Knights had a chance to strengthen their résumé even more against Baylor on Saturday, but their attempted comeback fell short when they committed a late three-shot foul. With so many of the Big 12’s expected bids effective “locks,” the conference’s bubble picture really starts with the seventh bid. And with the Knights still around the top 30 in the résumé average — no other non-“lock” from the Big 12 is even better than No. 40 — they still own that seventh slot. They’ll look to rebound as favorites against Oklahoma State before closing out the regular season with what could be a résumé-padding game at West Virginia.
Next game: vs. Oklahoma State (Tuesday)
TCU Horned Frogs
Updated: Feb. 28, 8:34 p.m.
The Horned Frogs continue to make a run for the Big 12’s final at-large bid with their sixth win in seven games, topping Kansas State on the road Saturday. Although their consensus at-large chances are in the 50% range, they have four Quadrant 1 wins with an opportunity to add one more at Texas Tech on Tuesday. The Frogs have a clear case to be the conference’s eighth tournament team even with Cincinnati surging, as their overall résumé is superior to that of the Bearcats, and the recent Bracketology sets the Big 12 with that many entries. If seven ends up being the league’s magic number, though, the Frogs are in trouble.
Next game: at Texas Tech (Tuesday)
Cincinnati Bearcats
Updated: Feb. 28, 4:06 p.m.
The Bearcats’ late-season charge continued Saturday with a blowout win hosting Oklahoma State for their fifth win in six games. They are still just borderline top 60 in the national résumé average — the rest of the bubble is generally around No. 45 — so the consensus model sets their at-large chances in the teens. At this point, their case really relies on two signature wins: vs. Iowa State and at Kansas. But they’ll have chances to add more, against BYU and TCU, before the regular season ends.
Next game: vs. BYU (Tuesday)
3.2 expected bids (2.2 at-large)
UConn Huskies
St. John’s Red Storm
Villanova Wildcats
None
Seton Hall Pirates
Updated: Feb. 28, 2:15 p.m.
Barely clinging to the bubble, the Pirates gave UConn a serious fight on Saturday but ultimately fell short of the upset. Their at-large chances sat at 12% in the forecast composite entering the day, and while the loss doesn’t really hurt those much — as heavy underdogs, it was basically already priced in — they missed a prime opportunity to add a much-needed résumé boost. They rank outside the top 50 nationally in résumé average with only a single Quadrant 1 win. A case will be hard to make if the Big East receives only three bids, which is the current Bracketology expectation, and their last chance to impress the committee now would be to upset St. John’s on March 6.
Next game: at Xavier (Tuesday)
Gonzaga Bulldogs (West Coast Conference)
Utah State Aggies (Mountain West)
Saint Mary’s Gaels (WCC)
Updated: Feb. 26, 8:30 a.m.
Facing rival Santa Clara in a big Bubble Watch contest Wednesday night, the Gaels outscored the Broncos 44-31 in the second half to pull away for the statement win. They haven’t missed the NCAA tournament since 2022, and it’s tough to imagine that streak coming to an end now. Saint Mary’s sits 27th in the résumé rankings with a consensus 95% at-large probability — very nearly a “lock” — and after Wednesday, it likely no longer has to worry about how many WCC teams the NCAA can accommodate for the Dance after Gonzaga. It still has just one Quadrant 1 win — it could add a second vs. Gonzaga when the two meet again on Saturday at Saint Mary’s. But the Gaels have to feel like they are in solid shape either way.
Next game: vs. Gonzaga (Saturday)
Saint Louis Billikens (Atlantic 10)
Updated: Feb. 28, 10:14 p.m.
Coming off its ugliest loss of the season — by 15 points at Dayton — Saint Louis had to hold off a stubborn Duquesne on Saturday to avoid a third loss in four games. The Billikens have been a great story in their second season with Josh Schertz at the helm, and aren’t in much danger of not making the field as an at-large team if necessary. They are still top-30 nationally in the résumé rankings, with a pair of Quadrant 1 wins, and rank even better in the predictive ratings.
Next game: vs. Loyola Chicago (Wednesday)
Miami (Ohio) RedHawks (MAC)
Updated: Feb. 28, 8:06 a.m.
The MAC hasn’t received multiple bids since 1998-99 — fittingly, the same year Wally Szczerbiak led Miami (Ohio) to the Sweet 16 after knocking off Washington and Utah in the first two rounds. Could history repeat? Miami survived a real scare against Western Michigan on Friday night, rallying from down eight in the second half to prevail on Trey Perry’s game winner and remain the sole remaining unbeaten team in Division I. The forecast models don’t quite know how to handle the RedHawks, though they rank inside the top 40 on résumé, the committee has never excluded an eligible team with fewer than four losses in a non-pandemic season, and Miami (Ohio) made the field as an at-large team during a recent NCAA-run mock selection exercise. It is true that the RedHawks are a mid-80s team in the predictive ratings (Akron actually still ranks higher in the MAC) and had just the 321st-hardest schedule in the nation. But wins are wins! They are now only two away from an undefeated regular season, which the major forecast models give around a 60% chance to happen.
Next game: vs. Toledo (Tuesday)
Santa Clara Broncos (WCC)
Updated: Feb. 28, 10:37 p.m.
The Santa Clara and Saint Mary’s comparisons will be constant as we debate whether the West Coast Conference could get three bids, which has happened only once in the past 13 seasons. After beating Oregon State to finish the regular season on Saturday, the Broncos do still have model chances in the 70% range and a top-40 résumé ranking nationally, but their fate appears to hang almost entirely upon what they do in the conference tournament and/or whether the selection committee will send that extra WCC at-large team to the Big Dance.
Next game: TBA (WCC tournament tips Thursday)
New Mexico Lobos (MW)
Updated: Feb. 28, 4:26 p.m.
Seeking a third straight tournament bid for the first time in more than a decade, New Mexico got closer to that reality on Saturday after avenging its Jan. 17 loss to San Diego. The Lobos’ chances are still around a coin flip based on their borderline top-50 national résumé ranking, but they have more Quadrant 1 and 2 wins than the Aztecs and have now evened the head-to-head scales.
Next game: vs. Colorado State (Wednesday)
San Diego State Aztecs (MW)
Updated: Feb. 28, 4:26 p.m.
Just when the Aztecs seemed to be sliding out of the bubble picture with consecutive losses to Grand Canyon and Colorado State, they responded by taking down conference leader Utah State by 17 on Wednesday night. They weren’t as fortunate on Saturday, losing a nail-biter at New Mexico. The loss once again cast their consensus at-large chances in doubt, dropping them from around a coin flip to the 30% range. Already borderline top 50 nationally in the résumé ranking, they remain squarely on the bubble but are trending in the wrong direction. The Mountain West could potentially send three teams to the tournament — it hasn’t fallen below that threshold in five seasons — and with a fairly sizable gap in at-large chances between SDSU and New Mexico vs. the next-best teams, both teams could get in regardless. But if the MWC gets only two bids, Saturday’s loss to the Lobos could haunt the Aztecs.
Next game: at Boise State (Tuesday)
VCU Rams (A-10)
Updated: Feb. 28, 2:48 p.m.
VCU hasn’t made back-to-back NCAA tournaments since the Will Wade era nearly a decade ago, and the forecast models (which sit in the mid-20% consensus at-large range) remain less than bullish on that streak ending this season. That’s in part because the Rams are 0-5 against Quadrant 1 opponents, including a recent collapse at Saint Louis that hurt their at-large case. They are still right in the middle of bubble territory in overall résumé (mid-40s nationally), have won 11 of 12 after crushing Fordham on Saturday and could add a Quadrant 1 win over Dayton on Friday. But it remains to be seen if the A-10 will get a second bid (which has happened in three of five years), and Saint Louis would be first in line.
Next game: vs. George Mason (Tuesday)
Belmont Bruins (MVC)
Updated: Feb. 25, 9:24 p.m.
Belmont’s case for at-large consideration continues to grow after the Bruins cruised past Evansville for their 13th win in 14 games. They lead the nation in effective FG% and are a top-50 team in our résumé composite. Though they don’t have any Quadrant 1 wins, they’ll get one more chance to improve on their 5-1 record against Quadrant 2 teams: against Illinois State on March 1.
Next game: at Illinois State (Sunday)
Model consensus: A blend of the conditional at-large bid odds found via BartTorvik, TeamRankings, JThom Analytics and ESPN Analytics.
Résumé ranking: An average of rankings in strength of record (SOR), NET, KPI and wins above bubble (WAB).
Predictive ranking: An average of rankings in the Basketball Power Index (BPI), KenPom ratings (KP), Bart Torvik’s “Barthagorean” ratings, TeamRankings’ power ratings and Sports-Reference’s SRS ratings.
Strength of schedule and projected records are according to the BPI.
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