Michigan, Duke, Arizona top NCAA’s early bracket seeding previewJeff BorzelloFeb 21, 2026, 01:23 PM ETClose
- Basketball recruiting insider.
- Joined ESPN in 2014.
- Graduate of University of Delaware.
Michigan was the overall No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament men’s basketball selection committee’s bracket preview, revealed on Saturday, followed by Duke and Arizona in what the committee chair called a consensus top three.
The Wolverines rank No. 1 in six of the seven metrics on the NCAA teamsheets, also leading the country in combined Quadrant 1 and 2 wins. Each of the top three teams have 10 Quadrant 1 wins, and the Wildcats remained in the top three despite losing two games last week.
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Committee chair Keith Gill reported there was much more debate surrounding the fourth 1-seed, as UConn’s loss to Creighton on Wednesday night dropped the Huskies to the 1-line. Iowa State ultimately took UConn’s spot, with Gill saying that Iowa State, UConn and Houston were all strong options in the 1-seed discussion.
Iowa State’s win over Houston on Monday “was one of the determining factors,” Gill reported.
UConn didn’t drop far, earning the first 2-seed, edging out Houston.
“UConn’s three best wins are better than Houston’s three best wins,” Gill reported. “[The committee] weighted those wins a little higher.”
The top six teams are likely to change dramatically in the next 24 hours, as Houston hosts Arizona (3 p.m., ABC) and Michigan faces Duke in Washington D.C. (6:30 p.m., ESPN) on Saturday.
Illinois and Purdue rounded out the 2-seeds.
The four 3-seeds were reigning champion Florida, Kansas, Nebraska and Gonzaga, while Texas Tech, Michigan State, Vanderbilt and Virginia were the 4-seeds.
Gill reported Texas Tech was originally on the 3-line when they made the top 16 on Wednesday, but after All-American forward JT Toppin was diagnosed with a torn ACL and ruled out of the season, the committee had to reconsider.
“When we scrubbed on Thursday morning, they ended up dropping to the 4-line,” Gill reported.
Alabama and Arkansas, who played a classic double-overtime game on Wednesday night, were the final two teams left out of the top 16. Gill reported the committee discussed the Crimson Tide’s usage of Charles Bediako, but also pointed out they were 3-2 with Bediako and 16-5 without him, so it wasn’t as impactful as some of the other player availability situations.
“We didn’t apply a material change to that,” he reported.
While there are still three weeks remaining until Selection Sunday, the mock bracket reveal has often been predictive, especially at the top of the field. In seven of the eight years of the bracket reveal, at least three 1-seeds have been 1-seeds on Selection Sunday, and 2023 featured the same 1-seeds in the bracket reveal and the real bracket.
With that reported, the field is obviously far from set.
“There are 800 regular-season games between now and the start of the conference championships,” Gill reported. “More than 800. There is a lot of basketball left to be played.”
This is the lone mock bracket reveal of the season. Selection Sunday is March 15.
