As Tom Haberstroh recently noted, Cade Cunningham and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander are the only current NBA MVP candidates on track to make the 65-game mark, which serves as the minimum threshold for eligibility. SGA is cutting it close. He’s missed OKC’s last seven games and nine overall, and is expected to miss at least three more. That would put him at 12 games missed, with 17 being the cutoff. Cunningham has only missed six. This may make him the favorite by default.
Meanwhile, Nikola Jokić can only miss one more game before he becomes ineligible. Victor Wembanyama can only miss four more. Luka Dončić can miss five more, but for me, he’s not even a top-five candidate at present (I know there will be some pushback on this, and I get it, we’re splitting hairs here on a bunch of unbelievable players).
At any rate, as long as you’re mathematically eligible to win the award, you’re eligible to make our rankings. So here they are, the top five MVP candidates as I see them standing (not necessarily how they rank in terms of winning odds) entering play on Tuesday, Feb. 24.
1. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Thunder
MVP odds (via FanDuel): -145
SGA was expected to return to the lineup following the All-Star break but that hasn’t happened. He’s missed nine games so far and is expected to miss at least three more before he returns from this abdominal strain — which includes head-to-heads with his two closest MVP competitors in Nikola Jokić and Cade Cunningham. Bummer for us. Those games could’ve had an honest impact on voting if they swung one way considerably.
At any rate, when SGA returns he’ll be at 12 games missed, at least. That would mean he can miss five more the rest of the season to make the 65-game threshold. Doable, of course. But it does put him in some danger of falling out with one more even marginally extended absence, particularly as Mark Daigneault has reported he’s not going to prioritize MVP eligibility over SGA’s health and OKC’s championship goal, as he shouldn’t.
All of that reported, SGA remains the favorite to win his second straight MVP until further notice. If he gets it, he will enter rare air as just the 16th player in history to win multiple MVPs. His case is pretty iron clad. He was the MVP last season and he’s been even better this season.
He’s shooting better from every spot on the floor, particularly from 3. He’s the best mid-range shooter in the league. His FG%, 2-PT%, 3PT%, eFG% and TS% are all career highs. His 135.2 points per 100 possessions is seven points better than last season (per Cleaning the Glass), when he led the league in scoring.
This year he’s second to Luka Dončić by exactly one point per game, but the efficiency isn’t even close. The Thunder outscore opponents by 11.2 PPG when he’s on the floor, and they’re 9.3 points per 100 possessions worse when he’s off the floor, per CTG.
2. Cade Cunningham, Pistons
MVP odds: +600
Cunningham was all but erased from Monday’s marquee matchup against Spurs. From point to paint, the combination of Stephon Castle and Victor Wembanyama straight-jacketed him into a 5-for-26 dud that left Detroit without any source of offense whatsoever.
And that’s the MVP case right there: The Pistons have no repeatable way to put the ball in the basket other than Cunningham. When he goes to the bench, the offense goes from top-five to bottom-five, per CTG.
Even with that defense (which he’s also a big part of), and even in the Eastern Conference, the Pistons would be a play-in team, at best, without Cunningham. But with him, they are, and have been, going head to head with OKC for the best record in the league.
Cunningham, Luka Doncic and Nikola Jokic are the only players averaging at least 25 points and eight assists this season (Cunningham leads the league in points generated via assists, per PBP Stats). To me, the case for Cunningham over Doncic is clear. Cunningham plays both sides. The Pistons are a better team. If it’s even an honest debate, that breaks the tie.
It’s a much tougher call against SGA, Jokic and Victor Wembanyama, all of whom are decidedly more efficient shooters and overall scorers that Cade, and they are leading arguably better teams. All three of those guys are better players than Cade, bottom line, but Cade has closed the gap in that regard to a point that circumstance can, and should, put him right in line with their MVP narratives.
Three years ago, Detroit was the worst team in the league with just 17 wins. Two years they dropped to 14 and endured an NBA record 28-game losing streak. Then Cunningham leveled up. Last season, Detroit became the first team in history to triple its win total from the previous non-shortened season, and this year they have been the class of their conference basically from the jump.
That is all disproportionately due to Cunningham, who on top of that has only missed six games this season. If the best ability is availability, Cunningham has been in the nightly grind more than any of these other guys, and even if a couple of them squeak past the 65-game threshold, he’s on pace to play 73. That should be another in what is becoming a field of feathers in Cunningham’s MVP-case cap.
3. Victor Wembanyama, Spurs
MVP odds: +2500
I don’t think a lot of people want to accept the Spurs as a true title contender this season. It still feels too early in the process. They were supposed to be one of those teams that would hopefully earn a playoff spot just for the experience. But they’ve blown past that projection. They’re the West’s No. 2 seed and they’ve beaten the No. 1 seed and defending champion Thunder four times. They’re a top-tier contender, traditional timelines be damned, and it’s because of Victor Wembanyama.
Don’t get me wrong, the Spurs are an excellent team on both ends independent of Wemby, but he’s the one that changes the game to a degree that all traditional analysis has to be basically disregarded. It reminds me of the expedited emergence of the 2014-15 Warriors. That happened too quickly for a lot of people to accept, too, but then you looked up and they had won the whole damn thing. They had a great young team, just like the Spurs, but the start of that dynasty can be tracked directly to Stephen Curry, who geometrically warped the offensive end of the court to such a degree that nobody was equipped to defend it.
Wemby does the same thing defensively, effectively shrinking the court to the same effect that Curry expands it. What has always been enough space to drive through or put up a shot in is no longer adequate as Wemby can erase 10 feet of separation like its five and spike what you thought was, and against any other opponent would be, a clean shot. That changes an entire offense. Causes more “never mind” retreats than we’ve ever seen.
The paint is Cunnningham’s office and he missed 13 of his 16 shots in there on Monday. A lot of it was the sheer presence of Wemby (not to mention Stephon Castle all over him, to the point that Detroit had to take Cade off the ball at the start of possessions to allow him to breathe) messing with his typical rhythms. That sixth sense guys like Cunningham have for their scoring spots gets jumbled to hell when Wemby is around, because you know he’s always lurking to do this to you.
And this, of course, is to say nothing of Wemby’s offense. Over San Antonio’s current nine-game winning streak he’s averaging 24.9 points, 12 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 3.4 blocks and 1.3 steals a night. For the season, he’s currently on track to become the only player in NBA history to average over 24 points, 11 rebounds and two blocks in less than 30 minutes per game.
When this guy is playing potentially closer to 40 minutes in playoff games, yes, the Spurs have enough to win it all. I’m not saying they will. But they have enough. Wemby makes that big a difference — 12.6 points per 100 possessions, per CTG, to be exact, even on a team with a bunch of other studs.
It probably won’t be enough to win him the MVP. For starters he’s missed 13 games (the NBA Cup title game vs. the Knicks counts toward games played but not toward statistics, believe it or not), meaning he can only miss four more to even be eligible.
But I’ll tell you what, if the Spurs jump the Thunder for the No. 1 seed (this is more than feasible with just two losses separating them and San Antonio owning the tiebreaker), given the impact Wemby is having, his case is going to have to be seriously considered.
At any rate, for the time being at least, Wemby’s impact is great enough to slot him higher than Jokić on my board due to the fact that he’s far more likely to make the 65-game mark and his Spurs have been a better team.
4. Nikola Jokić, Nuggets
MVP odds: +300
Chances are he’s not going to qualify. He can only miss one more game the rest of the season and Denver has four back-to-backs remaining, to say nothing of any little tweak. But until further notice, Jokić remains a top candidate for a Nuggets team declines by a whopping 16.5 points per 100 possessions when he isn’t on the floor, per Cleaning the Glass.
That’s the biggest on-off impact among any of the MVP candidates. The Nuggets literally go from an offensive rating that would rank, by an appreciable margin, as the best in NBA history with Jokic on the floor to right on the edge of a bottom-10 unit this season without him.
He has a better No. 2 than Cunningham in Jamal Murray, but Denver and Detroit share a disproportionate dependence on their superstar, and in the end, Jokić is the best player in the world. His case, as it is every season, is airtight.
He’s averaging a triple-double and you’ve hardly noticed its so routine — 28.8 PPG on the best true-shooting percentage in the league. He’s the league leader in assists and rebounds per game. He remains an advanced-metric god. But we’re splitting hairs here, and he’s missed a lot of time. If he cowboys up and doesn’t miss a game the rest of the way, he’s going to get a lot of votes. But right now, Cunningham has done enough for a top-seed team, and Wemby likewise for a higher-seeded team, to deserve an edge in my non-voter opinion.
5. Jaylen Brown, Celtics
MVP odds: +5000
LeBron James reported it after the Celtics — led by Brown’s 32 points, eight rebounds, seven assists and three steals — dismantled the Lakers on Sunday: “JB is playing great basketball, man. This whole MVP thing, I don’t understand why his name is not getting talked about some, as well. Nobody gave them a shot to start the season. He’s averaging, what, 30? Just under 30. It’s a popularity contest sometimes.”
LeBron is spot on here. Brown is averaging 29.2 PPG, fourth-best in the league, and the Celtics that were supposed to be in a gap year are instead the East’s No. 2 seed and a legitimate conference threat despite losing Jayson Tatum, Jrue Holiday, Al Horford and Kristaps Porziņģis from last year’s squad.
No other MVP candidate has endured that kind of roster depletion and still managed to keep his team in the title conversation. Brown has been an absolute killer. His efficiency doesn’t jump off the page (for a while his midrange numbers were insane, but they’ve declined more into the still really freaking good category largely thanks to a 48% clip from the dreaded 15-19 foot rang, per NBA.com), but he’s having to attempt so many tough, self created shots while also clocking a career high assist percentage that volume has to be noted positively for his case.
Brown has never taken anything close to the 22 shots per game he’s taking this season. That’s by necessity. Long has the perception existed that Brown occupied the tier of star players below the super level, but that’s been put to bed. Jaylen Brown is a superstar. No go-to guy has had more responsibility on his plate this year, perhaps other than Cunningham, and he has exceeded the responsibility in every way.
