Every NFL season since 1990 has seen at least four teams that missed the playoffs the prior year make the postseason the following year.
The 2025 playoff field was arguably the most parity-filled bracket of all time, considering the following:
- It had the most playoff teams (five) coming off of 11-plus loss seasons
- It had the most division winners (four) with five or fewer wins from the year before
- It had the most worst-to-first division winners (three)
Those trends indicate that anything is possible in the NFL. From year to year, bad teams one year can become elite the next: the New England Patriots going from being a four-win team in both 2023 and 2024 to winning the AFC in 2025. Great teams from 2024 fell off the map entirely and missed the playoffs like the 15-win Kansas City Chiefs, the 15-win Detroit Lions and the 14-win Minnesota Vikings did in 2025.
So which teams could take a tumble down a few notches from their 2025 seasons? Here’s a look at five such candidates as the offseason is now underway for all 32 teams following the Seattle Seahawks’ 29-13 Super Bowl LX victory over the Patriots.
Chicago Bears
No team had a more clutch year in close games in the 2025 season than the Bears. Their seven wins when trailing in the final two minutes of the fourth quarter, including the playoffs, is an NFL record. Some of that likely had to do with Chicago regularly living on the edge thanks to their high-wire act of winning close games with an NFL-most eight wins by fewer than seven points this season, including the playoffs.
He’ll need to recapture that magic again in 2026, as well as relying on prayer, because regression to the mean hits almost every year for NFL teams that rely on clutch or one-score wins. The 2024 Chiefs were an NFL record 11-0 in one-score games last season en route to a third consecutive Super Bowl trip. In 2025, the Chiefs’ late-game success completely evaporated as they lost nine of their 10 one-score games this season.
OverTheCap.com projects the Bears to have the ninth-fewest effective cap space, defined as the cap space a team will possess after signing at least 51 players and its projected rookie draft class, in the NFL entering the 2026 offseason at -$9.49 million. That will hamper their ability to improve the roster. The biggest area where the Bears need to improve is on defense. Chicago was the NFL’s No. 9 scoring offense (25.9 points per game) while it was the league’s No. 23 scoring defense (24.4 points per game allowed). Continuity typically helps, and they’ll have Dennis Allen back as their defensive coordinator in 2026.
However, the Bears don’t have the money to maintain that continuity in their defensive backfield. Safety Kevin Byard, a 2025 first-team All-Pro after leading the NFL with seven interceptions, is set to become a free agent, as is fellow starting safety Jaquan Brisker, nickel C.J. Gardner-Johnson and outside cornerback Nahshon Wright, who led the NFL with eight takeaways (five interceptions and three fumble recoveries). The potential losses of both Byard and Wright, who combined to account for 15 of Chicago’s NFL-most 33 takeaways (45.4%), could certainly set the Bears’ defense back.
While it sounds wild to say, the 2025 season may have been the Bears’ best shot to make a Super Bowl run with Williams on his rookie contract.
Denver Broncos
The Denver Broncos are similar to the Bears in terms of being a regression candidate. Of their 14 regular-season wins, Denver won an NFL record 12 in comebacks. The previous record was 11 by the Chiefs in 2024, and the Broncos tied the Chiefs’ mark with 11 one-score wins. As mentioned with the Bears, the Chiefs fell back to earth and missed the playoffs entirely in 2025.
It’s also worth wondering whether Bo Nix could regress in 2026, given his recovery from an ankle fracture and a relative step back in his performance in 2025. His efficiency metrics — completion percentage, touchdown to interception ratio, and passer rating — all declined to being ranked in the bottom 10 among 33 qualified quarterbacks, while his pass yards per attempt average has remained in the bottom 10 in the NFL in each of his first two seasons.
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Comp pct
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66.3% (15th)
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63.4% (24th)
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Pass yards
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3,775 (12th)
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3,931 (8th)
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Pass yards per attempt
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6.7 (29th)
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6.4 (28th)
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Pass TD
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29 (6th)
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25 (T-9th)
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TD-INT ratio
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29-12 (16th)
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25-11 (19th)
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Passer rating
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93.3 (18th)
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87.8 (26th)
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* Rank out of 36 qualified quarterbacks
** Rank out of 33 qualified quarterbacks
Denver’s defense will likely remain elite thanks to retaining defensive coordinator Vance Joseph and the vast majority of their defensive starters, but the uncertainty around Nix’s offensive performance could make the Broncos’ record look considerably different in 2026.
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Pittsburgh Steelers won the AFC North for the first time since the 2020 season in 2025 in Aaron Rodgers’ first season as their starting quarterback. However, Rodgers turns 43 in December and will hit free agency this offseason. The hiring of Mike McCarthy, the head coach Rodgers played with for the majority of his career, as the Steelers’ new head coach likely increases the chances he is back in 2026.
However, the Steelers are still lacking in wide receiver depth outside of DK Metcalf, and Rodgers will be another year or older if he returns to Pittsburgh. The franchise does have the ninth-most projected cap space in the NFL this offseason ($39.31 million), according to OverTheCap.com, so upgrades could be made. Their ceiling with an aging Rodgers is likely a 10-7 record in 2025, with a chance to regress if Rodgers is injured. If Will Howard or Mason Rudolph is the starting quarterback, a major fall could easily be in order.
New England Patriots
The 2025 AFC champion New England Patriots coasted to a 14-3 record while playing the easiest regular-season strength of schedule, with a .391 opponent winning percentage, the lowest by any team since the 1999 Rams. Eleven of their 17 games came against teams whose head coach is not returning in 2026, which is tied for the most such games in NFL history along with the 1925 Frankford Yellow Jackets, according to CBS Sports Research. That’s a nearly unprecedented cakewalk.
Come playoff time, their path continued to provide soft landings. The Los Angeles Chargers were without both starting offensive tackles Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater, the Houston Texans were without their top two passing targets in wide receiver Nico Collins and tight end Dalton Schultz (departed in game at New England) and the Denver Broncos had to start Jarrett Stidham, who hadn’t throw a pass in a game all season, at quarterback over the injured Bo Nix. It wasn’t exactly a huge surprise that they fell behind the healthy Seahawks 19-0 in an eventual 29-12 Super Bowl defeat.
This isn’t to say New England will miss the playoffs in 2026, but they could easily see their regular-season record decline by four or five wins while playing a first-place schedule.
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Week 1 vs. Raiders
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Fired
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Week 2 at Dolphins
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Fired
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Week 3 vs. Steelers
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Parted ways
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Week 4 vs. Panthers
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Not fired (NFC South champs)
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Week 5 at Bills
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Fired
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Week 6 at Saints
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Not Fired (First-year head coach)
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Week 7 at Titans
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Fired
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Week 8 vs. Browns
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Fired
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Week 9 vs. Falcons
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Fired
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Week 10 at Buccaneers
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Not Fired (Fired OC, STC)
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Week 11 vs. Jets
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Not Fired (First-year head coach, fired OC, DC)
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Week 12 at Bengals
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Not Fired
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Week 13 vs. Giants
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Fired
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Week 14 (Bye)
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N/A
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Week 15 vs. Bills
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Fired
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Week 16 at Ravens
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Fired
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Week 17 at Jets
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Not Fired (First-year head coach, fired OC, DC)
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Week 18 vs. Dolphins
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Fired
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Philadelphia Eagles
The Philadelphia Eagles have had a tumultuous offseason since their wild card round home loss against the San Francisco 49ers. Defensive coordinator Vic Fangio considered retiring, but it seems like he’s decided to stick around for 2026. Philadelphia let go of offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo, and Jeff Stoutland, the best offensive line coach in the NFL today, chose to leave the Eagles’ organization. The Dallas Cowboys hired away Philadelphia secondary coach Christian Parker to be their new DC, and the Eagles hired Green Bay Packers quarterbacks coach Sean Mannion to be their new OC, marking his first ascent to the coordinator level.
That’s just the coaching staff turmoil. On the field, Philadelphia took a big step back, going from winning Super Bowl LIX in 2024 to losing in the opening round of the playoffs in 2025. What happened? A couple of things. The Eagles were the NFL’s No. 2 rushing offense (173.9 rushing yards per game) behind Saquon Barkley’s 2,000-yard season in 2024, but they fell to 18th in rushing in 2025 while averaging 116.9 rushing yards per game. The other issue was quarterback Jalen Hurts’ regression. He averaged a career-low 7.1 yards per pass attempt, and he also produced the lowest completion percentage (64.8%) in a season since 2021, his first as Philadelphia’s full-time starting quarterback.
If Mannion can’t get Hurts back on track in 2026, the coming season could once again be another slog with another precipitous decline.
