Real Madrid face Benfica again as title charge kicks into high gear: 'A wounded king is dangerous'

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The second year pf the new format of the UEFA Champions League, brought plenty of chaos on the final day of the league phase as 18 matches kicked off at the same time. Storylines can get muddled along the way during a jam-packed period of action but one stood out above the rest, fully embodying the drama of the day.

Real Madrid started the day well-positioned to finish in the top eight and book a direct spot in the round of 16, a favorable match against a Benfica team who were poised for elimination awaiting them. The script fully flipped, though — Benfica came out with an improbable 4-2 win, rounded out by a red card for Real Madrid’s Raul Asencio and the final goal of the game coming from shot-stopper Anatoliy Trubin. Benfica, coached by ex-Madrid boss Jose Mourinho, snuck their way into the knockout phase playoffs while Los Blancos were doomed to play another two games in the hopes of booking a spot in the last 16.

It makes for an unusual but perfect set-up for a rematch three weeks later, a painful reward for Benfica despite their hard work and a golden opportunity for Real Madrid to fully put that Matchday 8 defeat behind them.

How to watch Benfica vs. Real Madrid, odds

Date: Tuesday, Feb. 16 | Time: 3 p.m. ET
Location: Estadio da Luz — Lisbon, Portugal
Live stream: Paramount+
Odds: Benfica +280; Draw +290; Real Madrid -115

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“They are wounded,” Mourinho stated in his pre-match remarks on Monday, “and a wounded king is dangerous. We will play the first leg with our heads, with ambition and confidence. We know what we did to the kings of the Champions League … Real Madrid is Real Madrid, with history, knowledge, ambition. The only comparable thing is that we are two giants. Beyond that, there is nothing else. But football has this power and we can win.”

The circumstances could see Mourinho change his approach from the teams’ last meeting, too. Benfica were more forward-thinking than usual in their win over Los Blancos, in large part because they simply needed to score to even have a shot at advancing, but the calculus is usually different over a two-legged tie. A team can attempt to grind the opponent down in an attempt to lock their attack out, something Mourinho teams have done time and time again. Benfica’s attack-focused approach on Matchday 8 was atypical to their Champions League experiences since Mourinho took over after a Matchday 1 loss to Qarabag – they performed well above their average of 14.1 shots per game and 1.5 expected goals, instead taking 22 shots and generating 3.01 expected goals. Even with the 3-2 defeat to Qarabag factored in, Benfica are a solid defensive side – they have conceded just 10.1 nonpenalty expected goals against in eight games.

The question, then, is if this imperfect version of Real Madrid can find a way to break through a tough defense. Even in a season full of ups and downs, it feels hard to bet against the Spanish giants. They rank inside the Champions League’s top five for goals with 21 and expected goals with 18.99, their sheer ability to score papering over a handful of cracks. That is especially true since Xabi Alonso’s January ouster as the coach, his mission to build a more balanced Real Madrid abandoned despite the progress he made. Since Alvaro Arbeloa took charge, Los Blancos have fully switched to a strategy in which Kylian Mbappe and Vinicius Junior share the field at the same time, kicking the can down the road on the longstanding question about the pair’s compatibility.

Both in Spain and in Europe, Real Madrid’s inherent attacking might is enough to survive their own inconsistencies and notch enough wins to keep them in the conversation for silverware. Mbappe himself is on pace for a career-best season with 39 goals across all competitions so far, while Vinicius has delivered since Arbeloa took charge with four goals and two assists in his last seven matches. Individually, the pair are a cheat code as Los Blancos continue to sort through their issues and will be enough of a challenge for Benfica’s defense over the next week and change.

The team, though, has received a boost in the return of Trent Alexander-Arnold, who notched his first start since December in Real Madrid’s 4-1 win over Real Sociedad on Saturday. He will provide some attacking balance for a team that is at times overly reliant on Mbappe, already providing a preview of what’s to come with an assist over the weekend. The England international is a uniquely creative player as a right back, though his range of passing and positional awareness means he can kickstart an attack from just about every area of the pitch.

For all their flaws, Real Madrid have a perfect opportunity to put a sizable loss behind them, even if they are still unwilling to answer the big problems that plague their squad – and their pursuit of trophies, for that matter.