We are four weeks and one day away from that glorious Thursday that kicks off the first round of the NCAA Tournament. The regular season can often feel like a long homework assignment to learn the ins and outs of each team. The test (aka the bracket) is looming right around the corner and mayhem awaits.
How many teams do you think can win this whole thing right now? My list is at eight.
Let’s dive into the strengths and weaknesses of those eight clubs, plus a handful that just missed the cut.
1. Michigan
Pros
Michigan may have the most talented nine-man rotation in the sport. There are six former top-50 recruits in the rotation surrounding five-star transfer Yaxel Lendeborg. Michigan is enormous, flexible, relentless, mature and unselfish on both offense and defense. In transition, Michigan is unstoppable. The ball pops around the floor like a pinball machine, and it can be anybody’s day at any time. There isn’t one guy you have to key on to shut down Michigan. It has had eight different guys lead the team in scoring in a game. That’s … different.
When Michigan’s defense is tuned up, it flies around, covers up gaps, shrinks the floor and builds a fortress around the rim. Michigan has the best defense in the country that gets even nastier in the second half because Dusty May has accrued so much depth that wears so many teams down.
Michigan creates layups or dunks better than almost anyone because Aday Mara, Morez Johnson and Lendeborg are the best-passing frontcourt in the nation. The Wolverines also limit layups or dunks better than almost everyone. That’s a gorgeous recipe to win a title because it forces opponents to have to hit double-digit 3-pointers to have a shot.
Cons
You can nit-pick about how Michigan can be a bit more susceptible to giving up offensive rebounds than you’d suspect, but if Michigan exits earlier than it wants, you will likely be able to highlight two categories: 3-pointers or turnovers. Those were the hot spots in the preseason, and they are the minor concerns now.
There are only a handful of teams that can actually match up physically with Michigan. When that time comes, can Michigan’s guards consistently win one-on-one matchups? Michigan has done a terrific job of mostly avoiding the trap that is iso ball.
The best team doesn’t always win the title, but Michigan feels inevitable because its strengths are so dominant, and it has enough depth to bench whoever isn’t playing well before they lose the game.
2. Duke
Pros
Jon Scheyer dials up gorgeous actions surrounding Cameron Boozer, who is the national player of the year frontrunner, and sharpshooter Isaiah Evans, who is one of the most-improved players in all of college basketball. Duke’s scheme is layered, and it creates a swath of dunks and wide-open 3-pointers. Only Vanderbilt generates more unguarded catch-and-shoot 3-pointers than Duke (12.2 per game).
Boozer as the fulcrum is an automatic high floor because he can pass, dribble, shoot and rebound like a madman. He is always productive. That reliability is his superpower.
Duke also just doesn’t hurt itself. This defense doesn’t have insane personnel, but it does have terrific positional size and defends without fouling and limits second-chance opportunities at an extremely high level. Big man Patrick Ngongba is protecting the rim much better, and big wing Dame Sarr is a blanketing defender who makes just enough 3-pointers to stay on the floor.
Duke is good at a little bit of everything, and the way it moves without the basketball is a sign of good teaching.
Cons
Point guard and center. Those are the two worries. Duke’s point guard tandem of Cayden Boozer and Caleb Foster aren’t on the level of some of the point guards that Duke will have to knock out if it wants to go the distance. There’s this lingering feeling that Duke has to run so many set plays to cover up some of the lack of wiggle in its point guard room.
Inside, Ngongba is a good player who could be a late first-round pick, but can he outplay some of the elite centers in America and stay out of foul trouble? Duke has a +25.3 net rating against top-100 teams when Ngongba is on the floor. Maliq Brown is a useful backup big man, but Duke is much better on offense and defense when Ngongba isn’t saddled with foul trouble.
Boozer is somethin’. Evans is really good. Duke’s bookends at point guard and center control whether this team can go the distance.
3. Arizona
Pros
Arizona is the most physical team in the country. It has grown men at every single position. Jaden Bradley is a fierce point-of-attack defender. Ivan Kharchenkov has turned himself into one of the elite wing defenders. Motiejus Krivas is a mountain of a man inside the paint. Tobe Awaka is a 6-foot-8 fire hydrant. Koa Peat and Brayden Burries are five-star freshmen who look like they are 24 years old.
Tommy Lloyd has doubled down on amassing a roster of chiseled monsters. Very few teams can physically go toe-to-toe with the size of Michigan. Arizona is unequivocally on that short list.
The ‘Cats dominate all the areas that you’d expect from a team this big and strong. Arizona is a fantastic rebounding team. It lives at the free throw line. It can be blanketing defensively.
Arizona feels upset-proof against lower-tier competition because it’s just too gargantuan. If you don’t have athletes on par with Arizona’s, you’re dead on arrival.
Cons
It’s easier reported than done, but if you can keep Arizona out of transition, this offense can fall into hard times. Burries is the most dynamic offensive weapon on the team, but the lack of perimeter shot-making has reared its ugly head in Big 12 play. Teams are not terrified of Kharchenkov, Krivas, Peat or even Bradley from beyond the 3-point stripe. The Wildcats are shooting just 32% from downtown during conference play. That ranks 15th out of 16th foes and allows opposing defenses to load up the paint and dare Arizona to make enough jumpers.
A late-season heater from Anthony Dell’Orso would be just what the doctor ordered for this group. He’s a far better 3-point shooter than his current numbers (29.7% on 3.6 attempts) would indicate.
4. Houston
Pros
Houston has the best backcourt in the country, and it’s fueling the best halfcourt offense of the Kelvin Sampson era. Kingston Flemings is a freshman sensation who obliterates defenders with a dynamic first step. Milos Uzan is a whale of a defender who is shooting over 40% from downtown in Big 12 play for the second year in a row. Emanuel Sharp is a stone-cold killer with infinite range and excellent defensive instincts.
Those three guards can take Houston where it wants to go. Each of them are two-way players. None of them turn it over a ton. All of them are wired the right way. No backcourt covers each other’s flaws and maximizes each other’s strengths better than Houston.
Oh, and this is still a havoc-wrecking, Sampson-coached defense. JoJo Tugler is a menace. Freshman big man Chris Cenac is rapidly improving by the day and gets after it on the glass with a workmanlike approach.
Houston’s entire starting five could play in the NBA one day.
Cons
Just 27% of Houston’s offensive possessions end with a shot at the rim. That is the lowest rate in all of college basketball. Each Houston possession follows a similar script: a jumper with an offensive rebound that leads to a jumper with an offensive rebound that leads to another jumper. Around and around we go.
Houston is playing a dangerous game of jump shot roulette. Can it win six in a row this way?
Trotter’s pick to win the Big East: UConn
5. Illinois
Pros
The Illini put so many teams into a bind with their combination of size, skill and shooting. Illinois’ offense dictates the game in ways that very few can replicate. This is the No. 1 offense in the country for a reason because it has answers to the test for any defensive coverage. Two to the ball? No problem, the ball gets popping with impeccable spacing and shooters everywhere. Switch everything? All good, here’s Keaton Wagler with in-your-eyehole, parking-lot treys. Drop coverage? You wouldn’t dare with these pick-and-pop bigs.
Brad Underwood has pivoted (again) to playing slower than ever before at Illinois to allow this halfcourt offense to find mismatches and tap the button over and over again without turning it over.
Wagler is concocting one of the best freshmen seasons the Big Ten has ever seen, but this roster is packed with playmakers. Fellow freshman forward David Mirkovic has evolved into a devastating mismatch hunter and arguably Illinois’ second-best offensive player. Illinois also gets over five treys a game from the best-shooting frontcourt in America.
Illinois’ math is super simple. It takes quality shots and crashes the offensive glass like madmen all while shrinking the game with its plodding pace. Illinois wins the shot-quality game almost every night because its defense does not foul, rebounds pretty effectively and limits paint points.
Cons
If Illinois wants to win the title, it has to outlast some excellent guards on its way. Defending speedy lead guards has been a bit of a problem for the Illini at times. Underwood will point to the return of Kylan Boswell as a problem-solver on that front, but he can’t do it alone.
Illinois relies on its size, length and positioning to cover up the fact that it isn’t the most athletic bunch in the world.
6. Florida
Pros
Smashmouth basketball is back with a vengeance in Gainesville. Florida corrals 39.5% of its misses when Alex Condon, Tommy Haugh and Rueben Chinyelu are on the floor together. The offensive rebounding and transition dominance help keep the Gators’ offense afloat, and this defense has become one of the best units in the sport. Point guard Boogie Fland is a terrific point-of-attack defender. Haugh and Condon are active and enormous. Chinyelu makes big guys look so small, and his ability to guard in space and turn the water off at the rim makes him worthy to win SEC Defensive Player of the Year.
Florida has also problem-solved with its rotation. Sophomore wing Isaiah Brown connects the dots as a shot-making wing to add a bit more lineup versatility to the Gators’ attack. Urban Klavzar is a flat-out net-shredder off the bench.
Florida had like five, maybe six, guys that Todd Golden could trust for long stretches of non-conference play. Now, it has eight.
Cons
Florida can win when it doesn’t make shots, but it has shot under 30% from downtown in 15 of 26 games this year. There will be a night in March when Florida’s guards shoot 3 for 13 from downtown. Florida will very likely go home on that night if its bigs can’t be menaces on the offensive glass. It just is what it is.
7. Iowa State
Pros
- Joshua Jefferson is really, really good at his job (doing everything).
- Milan Momcilovic is really, really good at his job (making tough shots look easy).
- Tamin Lipsey is really, really good at his job (making a ton of winning plays).
- Killyan Toure is really, really good at his job (being a pest on the ball defensively).
- Coach T.J. Otzelberger is really, really good at his job.
- The bench mob of Nate Heise, Jamarion Bateman and Dominykas Pleta has taken serious strides in the right direction.
Need to see anything else? That pretty much sums up why Iowa State is 23-3.
Cons
Iowa State’s havoc-wrecking defense is nasty when it’s forcing turnovers, but it can be vulnerable both on the offensive glass and allowing some open 3-pointers. There’s also a slight concern that Iowa State may not have the special guard play that almost all National Title winners possess. Lipsey is a warrior, but he’s shooting 25% from 3-point range and 59% from the charity stripe in Big 12 play. They need just a little bit more juice from this backcourt to scale the mountain.
8. UConn
Pros
UConn’s offense can wind even the most well-schooled defenses into a pretzel with its dizzying display of cuts, backdoors and pindowns for a roster that’s just teeming in shooting. You have to guard Alex Karaban like he’s a 40% shooter. Same deal for Solo Ball and Braylon Mullins. Point guard Silas Demary Jr. seems destined to cash in on another triple double, and big man Tarris Reed has had moments of pure dominance this year.
UConn’s personnel offensively is just so dangerous across the board. It has the ability to just shred any defense that isn’t connected.
Cons
I don’t think UConn is quite as good defensively as the metrics indicate. UConn fouls a ton. It has also given up a boatload of offensive rebounds to the best teams on its schedule. There’s a level of grit that this UConn team needs to add before March. Tarris Reed and Eric Reibe form a good front line. But can they be vicious? It’s time to flip the switch and find a snarl.
Just missed the cut
- Kansas (19-6): If Darryn Peterson plays the rest of the year, Kansas has a chance, but it’s hard to shake the feeling that the Jayhawks are one piece short from winning six straight.
- Texas Tech (19-7): JT Toppin’s leg injury casts a dark cloud over Texas Tech’s outlook.
- Michigan State (21-5): MSU is tough, smart and dependable, but there’s a bit of a talent gap between the top of the sport that’s been spotlighted after season-ending injuries to both Divine Ugochukwu and Kaleb Glenn. Jeremy Fears Jr. has to create almost everything.
- Gonzaga (25-2): The Zags will be in the mix because Graham Ike is a total load, and they have much-improved wing defenders. Emmanuel Innocenti, Tyon Grant-Foster and Jalen Warley can be overwhelming on the defensive end. But some up-and-down point guard play, combined with Braden Huff’s serious knee injury, is a concern.
- Purdue (21-5): The Boilermakers can make a Final Four with the right draw, but they are not athletic enough to win the title. It just is what it is.
