The gold medal matchup that everyone in North America hoped for has come to fruition. Team USA and Canada are set to settle their intense rivalry with a gold medal on the line.
The two best teams in this Olympic field, the U.S. and Canada had to fight to get here. The Americans needed overtime to beat Sweden in the quarterfinals, and the Canadians required third-period comebacks to beat Czechia and Finland in the knockout rounds. With both squads now battle-tested, this gold medal game has all the ingredients for an all-time classic.
“There’s hatred there,” Brady Tkachuk told ESPN. “I mean, they’ve been the top dog. They’ve been the best for the last bunch of years, and for us, we want to be in that position, be the best. So it’s going to be a game where I think a lot of guys could say, this is the biggest game that they’ve ever played in.”
On paper, these are two evenly-matched teams, and the oddsmakers see it as a toss-up too. According to DraftKings, the Canadians are slight favorites at -125 with the Americans at +105 odds.
Before the puck drops on this highly anticipated clash of the hockey titans, we’ll take a deeper look at the matchup and make our pick for the gold medal winner.
Where to watch USA vs. Canada
Date: Sunday, Feb. 22 | Time: 8:10 a.m. ET
Location: Milano Santagiulia Arena — Milan, Italy
TV: NBC
Odds: Canada -125, USA +105
USA vs. Canada preview
The U.S. and Canada are two different teams with two very different strengths. The Canadians are built on an elite core of forwards with a lineup capable of scoring in bunches, and the Americans are built to prevent that very thing. Which philosophy will win out on Sunday?
Thus far, the Canadians scored their way out of trouble, and Connor McDavid and Macklin Celebrini are lethal together on the first line. Canada also brings Nathan MacKinnon, the leading scorer in the NHL, as its second-line center. The real wild card here is the health of Sidney Crosby. He missed the semifinal game with a lower-body injury, and if he can go, Crosby gives Canada incredible depth as the third-line center. If Crosby misses the game, that matchup gets more favorable for the U.S. with Nick Suzuki slotting in there.
Mitch Marner, Bo Horvat and Brandon Hagel bring playmaking and scoring on the wings. Marner was the hero in Canada’s overtime win over Czechia, pulling off a show-stopping move to win the game.
The Americans have a nice one-two punch down the middle as well, even if they don’t have the offensive ceilings of McDavid and MacKinnon. Jack Eichel and Auston Matthews are elite two-way players, and they’ve lived up to that billing in Milan. That duo has its work cut out for it in trying to contain their Canadian counterparts, but Eichel and Matthews are capable of doing it at their best. Larkin is a great third-line center for Team USA, and he’s been heating up over the last two games.
On the wings, the U.S. brings a balance of skill and sandpaper. Matthew and Brady Tkachuk embody that dynamic, blending physicality with finesse around the net. The most interesting winger for the Americans, however, is known more for his flash. Jack Hughes has made some brilliant plays at the Olympics, and he’s playing at a superstar level, which is good for the U.S.
Defense is where the balance of power shifts to the U.S. Led by Quinn Hughes and Zach Werenski, the Americans are loaded on the blue line. Those two are excellent puck-movers who can be trust to contribute in all three zones, but the U.S. has plenty of versatility behind them. Jaccob Slavin is one of the best shutdown defenders in the NHL, and Brock Faber fits well beside him in a similar role. Charlie McAvoy is great in his own end — and he’s not afraid to lay the lumber — but he can also chip in on offense. I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention Jake Sanderson as an underrated star either.
The Canadian defense has more questions. They have the best defenseman in the world in Cale Makar, but the team’s decision not to take more players with offensive upside was exacerbated by Josh Morrissey’s injury early in the tournament. Drew Doughty and Travis Sanheim are fine in their own end, but they can’t be relied upon consistently in the offensive zone. The same could be reported for Colton Parayko, who is there for more of a physical presence. Shea Theodore and Thomas Harley have some offensive chops, but the latter is having a poor season with the Dallas Stars.
In goal, we have a real conundrum. Connor Hellebuyck is arguably the best goalie in the world, but he has been known to shrink in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Jordan Binnington is statistically the worst goalie in the NHL this season, but all he does is turn into Martin Brodeur on hockey’s biggest stages. The U.S. has the edge on paper, but history and experience tell us the goaltender position might be more of a wash.
USA vs. Canada prediction
The Americans have been tormented by the Canadians on the world stage for my entire lifetime. I’ve seen 2002 in Salt Lake City, 2010 in Vancouver, 2014 in Sochi and last year in the 4 Nations Face-Off. The U.S. hasn’t been able to slay this Red-and-White dragon in a game that really matters.
However, this is the best American team that’s ever been assembled, and it’s right there with the Canadians as the most talented squad in the world. Canada still holds an edge, but as Czechia and Finland have proved, it’s by no means immortal. Beyond that, Team USA was built with the idea in mind that it would have to slow down this Canada team. Were some of the roster decisions made in service of that mission highly questionable? Yes, but the Americans have a real identity.
If I were making this prediction five days ago, I may have gone a different direction. The Canadians looked unstoppable in the preliminary round, and the Americans didn’t always look like juggernauts. That reported, the U.S.has developed chemistry over the course of this tournament, and it’s improved with each passing game. Meanwhile, Canada has struggled with inferior opponents in its last two matchups.
Perhaps it’s recency bias, but one team has looked better than the other over the last couple of games. The Americans seem to be hitting their stride just in time for this showdown with Canada, and I think they find a way to harass the Canadian defense and get to Jordan Binnington. Pick: USA 3, Canada 2 (OT)
So who wins the 2026 Winter Olympics men’s ice hockey final between USA and Canada, and what are the best bets for this matchup? Visit SportsLine now to see the 2026 Winter Olympics men’s ice hockey picks and best bets from a hockey insider, and find out.
