Will 40-point mark be needed for Premier League survival?

February 12, 2026 No Comments

Will 40-point mark be needed for Premier League survival?Image source, Getty ImagesImage caption, West Ham’s form will be a worry to those directly above them in the Premier League tableByChris Collinson, BBC Sport statistician and Steve Sutcliffe, BBC Sport journalistPublished2 hours ago34 Comments

The 40-point mark – or thereabouts – could well be back in vogue when it comes to guaranteeing Premier League survival this term, with an in-form West Ham attempting to chase down the sides above them.

That mythical number has often been cited as the threshold at which managers, players and fans can relax – but the total has not actually been needed to stay up since 2010-11.

Prior to that the only other occasions clubs were demoted with 40 points or more were 1996-97, 1997-98 and 2002-03.

But could that be about to change?

West Ham, who are 18th in the top flight, are only three points behind 17th-placed Nottingham Forest, who sacked manager Sean Dyche after Wednesday’s goalless draw with Wolves.

While Tottenham – who sacked boss Thomas Frank on Wednesday – are 16th, another two points ahead of Forest.

With 12 games remaining history shows the Hammers are more than capable of surviving, and in Nuno Espirito Santo they have a manager who knows what it takes to stay up from his time at Forest.

West Ham’s current points tally (24) is the most by any side in 18th at this stage of a campaign since 2019-20, when the Hammers recovered to stay up with 39 points.

And they are arguably the form club in the lower reaches of the table, with three wins helping them take 10 points from their past five games.

Leeds also look to have found some momentum with recent wins over Fulham and Forest as well as draws at Everton and Chelsea.

In contrast Spurs have managed a meagre four points from the previous 27 available to them.

Meanwhile, now managerless Forest have won just two of their past 10 games and fans of Brighton and Crystal Palace may also be looking over their shoulders.

The 14th-placed Seagulls (31 points) are on a dismal run having won just one top-flight game since 30 November.

Palace – who are a place and a point above Brighton – have only tasted victory once since 7 December and most recently let a two-goal lead slip as they lost to struggling Burnley.

Nottingham Forest sack manager Dyche after 114 days

Had West Ham held on to beat Manchester United on Tuesday, they would have equalled the record for the best points tally by an 18th-placed side at this stage of a 38-game campaign.

As it is they are a solitary point better off than the average for teams in that position – and look likely to need more than the 36 points that has ensured safety in the past nine seasons.

West Ham hold the record for being relegated with the most points (42) in a 38-game season, going down in a dramatic conclusion to the 2002-03 campaign after drawing against Birmingham.

That year they took 22 points from their final 12 games – and they have history for finishing strongly.

This is the sixth Premier League campaign where West Ham have had as few as 24 points at this stage – in the previous five seasons, they survived three times.

The Hammers earned 15 points or more from their last 12 matches in 2006-07, 2019-20 and 2022-23 to stay up.

In only one of the previous five seasons have they gone down with a whimper by taking fewer than 15 points from their remaining 12 games (2010-11).

This year’s fixture list has ensured another potentially gripping finale with Nuno’s side ending their season at home to Leeds, who are presently six points clear of them.

And should the Hammers continue their recent revival, that magic 40-point mark could well be needed once more to avoid dropping into the Championship.

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