No league gossips like the NBA, and All-Star Weekend functions as a sort of turning point in the cycle. In the first half of the year, the rumor mill focuses mostly on February’s trade deadline. LeBron James wasn’t a serious part of it. He has a no-trade clause and a $52 million cap figure most teams couldn’t afford to acquire anyway. But All-Star Weekend is usually when the rumor cycle turns toward the offseason. And sure enough, we’re starting to hear more and more about what the future might hold for LeBron.
ESPN stated that there was “rampant speculation” around the league suggesting that James will return to the Cleveland Cavaliers for a third stint with his hometown team in the 2026-27 season. The Athletic recently went on Cleveland radio and declared that if James plays next season, “it’s gonna be here.” The rumors got so loud that Donovan Mitchell was asked about them by SiriusXM NBA Radio, and while he wouldn’t speculate too much, he did say it would be “special” to play with the legend whose infamous 2010 Decision announcement he attended as a child.
For now, these are just rumors, but LeBron’s moves almost always follow an arc like this. The 2008 Olympics kicked off years of speculation about a possible partnership with Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh. That happened in 2010. Speculation about a return to Cleveland kicked into gear in March of 2014, when he attended the jersey retirement ceremony of former Cavaliers teammate Zydrunas Illgauskas. His relocation to Los Angeles felt preordained by the time it came in 2018. James has never been especially subtle. We usually have a good idea when he plans to change teams.
James, for what it’s worth, was asked about his future and the possibility of retiring at the end of this season at All-Star Weekend. He delivered a noncommittal answer that has been his boilerplate response for the last few months.
“When I know, you guys will know,” James stated. “I don’t know. I have no idea.”
The Lakers are set to create around $50 million in cap space this offseason as they attempt to rebuild around Luka Dončić. The 41-year-old James no longer appears to be a part of their long-term plans, but he just played in his 22nd All-Star Game. He’s still clearly one of the best players in the NBA.
If he does play next season, we can safely assume that he’d only do it for a genuine championship contender given how much noise he made at wanting to win another title last offseason. Cleveland, a 64-game winner a season ago that just acquired James Harden to pair with Mitchell and Evan Mobley, would seemingly qualify.
It’s only February. The Lakers and Cavaliers still have a postseason ahead of them. For all we know, other suitors could emerge. But for now, these rumors have gotten loud enough that we have to actually take them seriously. So… how could Cleveland actually land James? And what would the team look like after doing so? Let’s start doing some cap math.
Could the Cavaliers really afford LeBron?
Well, that depends on how generous James wants to be. There’s the easy way—James taking a minimum salary, which Cleveland could offer so long as it doesn’t trigger a hard cap through some other unforeseen offseason business—or the hard ways, of which there are several of varying degrees of difficulty depending on what sort of salary James demands.
Let’s set the table here. Right now, Cleveland has 11 players under contract for next season, plus a late-first-round pick, currently projected as No. 28 overall from San Antonio, taking them to 12. Those obligations take the Cavaliers to around $225.2 million in team salary, or around $2 million above the projected second apron, according to Yossi Gozlan’s cap sheets. This does not include a new contract for Keon Ellis, whom they just acquired at the deadline presumably with an eye on retaining. So right away, we can see that Cleveland is set to be expensive.
The taxpayer mid-level route
One step above the minimum would be the taxpayer mid-level exception. There’s no good reason for James to demand it beyond symbolically refusing to lower himself to the status of a minimum player. This season, the taxpayer mid-level pays only around $5.7 million. James’ minimum, as a 10-year veteran, isn’t far behind at around $3.6 million. James asking for the taxpayer mid-level wouldn’t be about the money. It would be ceremonial, but it would come at a cost. Using the taxpayer mid-level exception triggers a hard cap at the second apron… which Cleveland has already gone beyond (at least Gozlan’s $223 million projection) before even considering a new deal for Ellis.
But there is one easy way for Cleveland to save money we haven’t covered yet: James Harden. Part of Harden’s eagerness to leave Los Angeles was seemingly due to a desire to get extended. We don’t know if unofficial talks have taken place, but both sides should be motivated here to use Harden’s player option to lower his 2026-27 salary from $42.3 million in exchange for more years. So here’s a thought: Harden opts out and re-signs for $81 million over three years with a player option on the final season. That lowers his cap figure next season to $25 million, giving the Cavaliers about $15 million in second-apron space. James gets the taxpayer mid-level. Ellis gets everything else. We have a structure here. If Cleveland needs a bit more money to pay Ellis, it could waive-and-strech Dennis Schröder so long as there’s enough leftover to fill his roster spot. This is doable.
The nontaxpayer mid-level route
If James wants real money? Things get harder. The nontaxpayer mid-level exception started at around $14.1 million this season, but Cleveland wouldn’t just have to clear out that extra money to pay LeBron. It would also have to move enough to get below the first apron, as the non-taxpayer mid-level exception triggers a hard cap there (projected for around $210 million next season). This is substantially harder. Realistically, we’re going to have to trade draft picks to clear this money. Fortunately, the Cavaliers have some to spare. They’ll be able to trade their unprotected 2031 first-round pick along with first-round swaps in 2030 and 2032 if needed.
So, first thing’s first: we’re extending Harden under the same terms. Then, we’re getting Brooklyn on the line. The Nets have proven willing to take on money in exchange for deep future draft picks recently, so they’re our best bet among this summer’s cap space teams. If the Cavs just trade them Schröder, that gets them around $17 million below the first apron. Enough for James, but not Ellis too. So instead, the Nets (or whichever other cap space merchant that works with Cleveland) would have to take on Schröder and Max Strus. Now the Cavaliers are around $33 million below the first apron, probably enough to sign James, keep Ellis and then use the bi-annual exception on another non-minimum free agent to help offset the lost depth here. Shedding this much money would almost certainly cost all or most of Cleveland’s available draft capital. They might even need to work with multiple trade partners to get off all of that money.
If you want to put your conspiracy hat on, though, the Cavaliers didn’t duck the second apron at this year’s trade deadline when they likely could have. They got within around $4.6 million of doing so. That means their 2033 first-round pick is now frozen. Normally, that’s a bad thing. In this case, Cleveland might have been intentional about freezing it knowing that someone might demand it in whatever offseason schemes they’re cooking up. Their hands are tied now. They can’t trade that pick, so anyone hoping to do business with them would have to settle for less.
The sign-and-trade route
Now, let’s say this still isn’t enough, that James, being the icon that he is, refuses to accept a mid-level contract of any variety. There’s no world in which James can get close to the $52.6 million he is currently making in Cleveland (or any other team he’d likely be interested in playing for), but we can cook up some sign-and-trade scenarios to make more for him. If Mitchell, Harden and Mobley are off-limits here, the only other available big salary for the Cavaliers to trade is Jarrett Allen’s. Conveniently enough, the Lakers need a long-term center and have the cap space to absorb Allen outright. That makes matters fairly straightforward.
We are once again working with a first-apron hard cap because the Cavaliers would be acquiring James through a sign-and-trade. We’re just going to take a slightly different path to ducking that line this time around because, by trading Allen’s $28 million salary, there’s less of a need to dump both Schröder and Strus. So in this scenario, we’re giving Harden that proposed extension, but we’re paying less draft capital and only dumping the Schröder contract. Doing so would get Cleveland $45 million or so below the first apron. All sorts of doors open at that point.
Say James agrees to a $20 million salary. Now you have $25 million to sign Ellis and then potentially use part of the non-taxpayer mid-level exception on another free agent. The more James asks for, the less flexibility you have, but let’s be honest, if James demands $40 million, Cleveland isn’t paying him. There has to be some give and take here, and if there is, Cleveland would have a bit of room to build up the rest of the team. Maybe you don’t just dump Schröder, for instance. Maybe you attach draft capital and try to get a good player on a cheap contract back. Maybe you work with the Lakers to potentially bring in Deandre Ayton as your backup center, as they’d likely prefer to get off of his player option if they’re getting Allen.
There are a lot of variables in play here, but they’re solvable. Say the Lakers don’t want Allen. No problem. Conveniently enough, we know that the Bulls tried to trade for Allen before the deadline and were rebuffed. Chicago has the space to absorb him if needed over the summer. Centers are in demand right now. Finding a taker wouldn’t be hard. It would be much easier to move just Schröder than both Schröder and Strus because Schröder’s salary fits within the projected non-taxpayer mid-level exception, meaning a team with that exception could absorb him without having cap space. In other words, the pool of takers for him, at least mathematically, is bigger than the pool for Strus or both. You’d have to figure out something at center without Allen, but there’s enough flexibility here to get a useful backup in there somewhere. Maybe that’s Ayton. Maybe that’s someone in a trade. Maybe that’s a free agent. But if we assume Mobley is moving to center full time, it doesn’t have to be starting-caliber player.
James took less than the max to join the Heat in 2014. He’s been pretty resolute about not taking pay cuts ever since. He took a small one in 2024, but that was just a tiny hair cut to help the Lakers squeeze below the second apron. He offered to take a much bigger one to help the Lakers improve, though, and he’d have to do the same to get to Cleveland. We ultimately don’t know what his priorities are. He’s a billionaire. No NBA player has ever made more money. Maybe the good press he’d get for taking the minimum matters to him. Or maybe he’d be concerned that taking the minimum would draw criticism for making things too easy on Cleveland, invalidating whatever the achieve with him. It’s hard to say. James isn’t a max player anymore, but he’s far above the minimum. If it takes an Allen trade to pay him fair starter money, he’s still probably worth it. Hopefully the Cavaliers can get there through one of those other, cheaper paths. Allen is important, after all. If James really wanted to win a title in Cleveland, he’d probably want Allen on the team.
How good would Cleveland be with James?
Probably great. All of the pieces are here. James thrived alongside an ultra-versatile, defensive-minded center in Anthony Davis and Chris Bosh. He’s thrived alongside score-first guards, most notably Dwyane Wade and Kyrie Irving. He’s always been at his best with strong spacing. It’s been a long time since he had all of those things on a single team. Mobley isn’t quite Davis as a rim-protector or lob finisher, but he just won Defensive Player of the Year and he’s a more reliable 3-point shooter. James and Mitchell would work for many of the same reasons James and Irving worked. Mitchell has always been at his best when he’s been able to focus on scoring rather than playmaking. That was part of why Cleveland traded for Harden, and it’s why James fits as well.
Cleveland would presumably stagger the three of them aggressively and try to ensure having one or two on the floor at all times. There are real fit questions with Harden, but he’ll be 37 next year and James will be 42. They’re going to miss games, and a surplus of shot-creation is only a bad thing if, like the Lakers, it comes at expense of other needed skills. Cleveland would presumably have a deeper team than James has now. The Cavaliers rank sixth in the NBA in 3-point attempt rate, and though they’re not making their 3s as consistently as they did a year ago, it is worth remembering that only the Celtics made more of them a season ago. Sam Merrill might be open enough on this roster to make half of his 3s.
The immediate question here is the starting lineup. Let’s say for now the Cavaliers find a way to do this without giving up Allen. That would presumably leave Mitchell, Harden, James, Mobley and Allen as the starting five. Does that really make sense? Three high-usage, offense-first stars alongside bigs? In truth, they’d probably be better off starting either Ellis or Jaylon Tyson. They need youth, athleticism and perimeter defense alongside those big names. Would Allen be comfortable going to the bench? Would Harden or James? You could close based on game-by-game need, but consistency in a starting lineup is necessary. Asking any of their five former All-Stars to come off of the bench would probably be a tough conversation. Allen makes the most sense, especially from the perspective of staggering him like you would the perimeter players.
If Allen is traded to facilitate James, Cleveland would probably need to get another center in the building somewhere. Mobley is ready to primarily play center, but he’s never done so full-time, and Nae’Qwan Tomlin is too small for consistent center minutes, and while James can play center in a pinch, the man is in his 40s. Preserving his body is a priority. That’s the other theoretical benefit to starting Tyson, specifically. James has always preferred playing small forward to power forward. Harden does better guarding bigger players and is great in the post. Starting Tyson, who’s big enough to guard most perimeter players, would make it easier to hide James on easier matchups and let him both preserve energy and serve mostly as a help-defender.
At LeBron’s age, it would be irresponsible to make any predictions about how his hypothetical teams might look in the playoffs more than a year from now. He might decline. The East should be better next year. And we don’t know what sort of sacrifices the Cavaliers will have to make elsewhere on the roster to get him. But, at least one paper, I think it’s reasonable to assume that any James-led Cavaliers team next season would be very, very good. They have the star power to survive the 82-game grind. They have most of the basic tools a modern team needs between creation, shooting, defensive versatility and size, though if Allen is moved in the roster shakeup, they’ll have to do something to combat the bigger, more rebounding-focused opponents that have sprouted up since LeBron’s last stint in Cleveland. Kenny Atkinson just won Coach of the Year. I imagine the Cavaliers would be championship contenders. Whether that means they’re Eastern Conference favorites or more likely in the mix with a handful of other heavy hitters remains to be seen, but they’d have the tools they’d need to potentially hoist the Larry O’Brien trophy.
Is this actually going to happen?
My uneducated guess is that LeBron James will be a member of the Cleveland Cavaliers next season. I don’t know how that happens, and I have no firm evidence that it will. But I’ve been on this corner for six weeks and I’m going to stay here until I have a good reason to leave.
As it stands right now, the likeliest end to this season for James would be a first-round loss on a team that seems eager to move on after an eight-year partnership. That just doesn’t feel like an appropriate ending for perhaps the greatest career the NBA has ever seen. ESPN has declared that James isn’t necessarily interested in an all-out retirement tour, but there’s a middle ground between all of the pomp and circumstance that, say, Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant experienced and a final season in Cleveland in which he could be celebrated, but wouldn’t need to confirm it was indeed the end in ways that would invite distractions. The Cavaliers would be playing for a title, after all. Nobody in Cleveland would want ceremonies before every game or constant questions about legacies.
Forget about LeBron’s age for a moment. He’s averaging 22 points and seven assists. He’s still shooting above 50% from the floor. When was the last time any player this good, regardless of age, called it quits? Michael Jordan’s first two retirements come to mind, but there were extenuating circumstances involved in both. His father had just died in 1993, and the Bulls were set to rebuild after the 1998 Finals, so he would have had to change teams to keep competing for titles. He didn’t want to do that. James has proven more comfortable doing so. Larry Bird was in this statistical range when he called it quits in 1992, but debilitating back injuries were the culprit there. James, so far as we know, doesn’t have a similar, chronic condition holding him back.
Most of the great players James has crossed paths with, like Wade, Bryant, Tim Duncan, Dirk Nowitzki, Shaquille O’Neal, Kevin Garnett or even close friend Chris Paul, experienced far greater statistical decline before the end of their careers than James has now. There have been a total of 497 seasons this century in which a player has averaged at least 22 points per game. Thus far, not one of those seasons has been the last of anyone’s career. Only a handful have made All-Star Games in their final season, but those were fan selections (like Bryant), special occasion appointments by the commissioner (Wade and Nowitzki), or, in Bosh’s case, he was forced to retire in his prime because of a medical condition. In short, we just never really see players who are still as good as James stop playing professional basketball. Even superstars tend to keep going until they’re worse than this.
So again, my guess would be that James keeps playing. I also suspect that James is sensitive about his legacy, especially where team-hopping is concerned. Is he going to want to hear about how he joined Stephen Curry’s team if he plays for the Warriors? The Knicks offer a bit more appeal given the chance that he could give New York its first title in over 50 years, but he’d basically have to take the minimum there based on their cap structure, and it obviously lacks the sentimental appeal of Cleveland. If James is worried about getting linked too many teams, the Cavaliers obviously have the advantage of having already employed him twice. He has played for three different franchises thus far. That number doesn’t change if he goes back to Cleveland. It does if he plays for the Knicks, Warriors or someone else.
Cleveland has agency too here. What if the Cavaliers just win the championship without him this year? That’s in play, though they’d at the very least be underdogs against the Western Conference champions. The Cavaliers would absolutely take James back, but their appetite for extreme roster changes that could give him a sizable salary would likely depend on how this postseason goes. If the Cavaliers go on a deep run, James may be worried about the perception that he could disturb a team that is already close. A Lakers return isn’t exactly likely, but this is a weak summer for free agency. If they have nothing better to do with their cap space, maybe they’d shrug, operate above the cap and throw another big one-year offer his way.
So there are no guarantees here. We’re working off of rumors and deduction. But a return to Cleveland probably makes the most sense for the next, last stage of LeBron’s career. He deserves a better ending than he’s getting in Los Angeles, and the Cavaliers probably need one more significant piece to really make the most of this current championship window. The stars are aligning here. We usually have a sense of where James is headed before he makes his moves, and right now, all roads seem to lead back to Cleveland.
