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As we head into late February and March, each game a team plays can have a major impact on its NCAA Tournament resume. Some schools are fighting for No. 1 seeds, while others are seeking hosting spots. But to win March Madness games, a team must first make the 68-team field itself.

Several bubble teams went a long way towards reaching that goal on Sunday, particularly in the ACC. Entering the day, Duke and Louisville had gone a combined 29-1 in conference play, with the only loss being Louisville’s one-point loss against Duke. That changed as Louisville lost at home against Virginia while Duke fell at Clemson.

It was the biggest win of the season for both Virginia and Clemson, vaulting the Cavaliers up to a No. 10 seed and out of the Last Four In, while the Tigers enter the field with a third Quad-1 victory. Both Virginia and Clemson have a tricky week ahead, but one win should be enough to have them on the right side of the cut line as we enter the conference tournaments.

Each of those teams was playing offense on Sunday, trying to establish itself in the field. Other programs were playing defense in trying to hold onto spots. Villanova held Marquette to 39 points and is now a win at Seton Hall from locking up a bid. 

Nebraska was in freefall after losing six straight and trailed Washington by six points in the final five minutes on Sunday, but stole a 66-65 win after Britt Prince’s three-pointer with seven seconds left and can breathe a major sigh of relief.

The big loser of the day was Mississippi State, which lost by 50 points to Texas and lost its spot to Clemson. The Bulldogs are now the first team out of the projected field with games at Texas A&M and vs LSU left on the schedule.

Bracketology — Feb. 24

Seed Fort Worth 1 Sacramento 2 Fort Worth 3 Sacramento 4
1

Huskies

Bruins

Gamecocks

Longhorns
16

Knights

Colonels

 Chattanooga/Alabama A&M Howard/California Baptist
8

Lady Bulldogs

Orange

Cyclones

Ducks
9

Cornhuskers

Tigers

Fighting Illini

Cowgirls
5

Wildcats

Rebels

Tar Heels

Mountaineers
12

Racers

Eagles

Aztecs

Owls
4

Golden Gophers

Horned Frogs

Spartans

Terrapins
13

Bulldogs

Lady Techsters

Cowboys

RedHawks
6

Lady Raiders

Bears

Trojans

Crimson Tide
11

Lions

Bison

 Virginia Tech/Arizona St.

Stags
3

Buckeyes

Cardinals

Sooners

Blue Devils
14

Leathernecks

Cougars

Phoenix

Anteaters
7

Wolfpack

Huskies

Fighting Irish

Lady Volunteers
10

Wildcats

Cavaliers

Rams

 Colorado/Clemson
2

Commodores

Lady Tigers

Hawkeyes

Wolverines
15

Panthers

Vandals

Catamounts

Midshipmen

Last four in

  • Colorado
  • Clemson
  • Virginia Tech
  • Arizona State

First four out

  • Mississippi State
  • Stanford
  • South Dakota State
  • Richmond

Next four out

  • BYU
  • Utah
  • Kansas
  • California

What to watch for

Who can make the NCAA tournament as an at-large?

This is the big question as the clock ticks down to Selection Sunday. Let’s start by looking at which teams currently outside looking in can still make their way in without winning their conference tournament.

Mississippi State is in the best position if any team currently in the field slips up, and it also has the biggest possible win opportunity on the board for a bubble team against LSU. Stanford was a No. 7 seed in our first projections of the season, but has now lost eight of 10 games to fall out of the field. However, it remains alive and will host Clemson in a game that could end up deciding a spot in the field. A loss would likely require Stanford to win multiple games in the ACC Tournament.

South Dakota State and Richmond need wins against North Dakota State and Rhode Island, respectively, to keep any at-large hopes alive. Wins for North Dakota State and Rhode Island (currently auto-bids) in those games would go a long way towards them getting an at-large bid, but neither team should feel comfortable if they fail to win their conference tournament.

Each team currently in the Next Four Out is a long shot that would need a huge close to the season and other bubble teams to falter. The committee does value late-season performance, but these schools have a ways to go.

Conference tournament seeding on the line

South Carolina will be the No. 1 seed in the SEC Tournament, but which teams will also receive double-byes? For the first time since women’s basketball became an NCAA sport, five teams from one conference are ranked in the top seven of the AP poll this late into a season, as Texas, Vanderbilt, LSU and Oklahoma lead the teams jockeying for position.

But games in the ACC, Big 12 and Big Ten also have major seeding implications, particularly in the ACC, where nine teams remain alive for a top-four seed and matchups could mean everything for teams on the NCAA Tournament bubble.

And in the Ivy League, Columbia needs to win its final two games to lock up the No. 1 seed in the conference tournament, while teams across the country will be rooting for the Tigers to falter and lose the automatic bid, making their Ivy League tournament path more difficult and potentially opening up another at-large spot.