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The back-to-back World Series titles for the Los Angeles Dodgers helped cement the sentiment that baseball is too predictable.
Their success, however, ignores much of the unpredictability of recent seasons. Of note: The Texas Rangers went from 68-94 in 2022 to a World Series title in 2023; the Arizona Diamondbacks reached the Fall Classic that season just two years after going 52-110; the Toronto Blue Jays improved by 20 wins last season and came heartbreakingly close to a championship. Even the Milwaukee Brewers, who reached the NL Championship Series in 2025, were just 15th in ESPN’s preseason Power Rankings before going on to lead the majors with 97 wins that season.
With the chaotic start to the 2026 season, it looks almost certain that we’re going to see a surprise team — or three — making a run into the postseason. In this edition of Real or Not, let’s dig into which of these clubs look like serious playoff contenders and which might fade as the 162-game season rolls along.
Record: 30-15, 9-1 in one-run games
Run differential: Plus-25
Preseason Power Ranking: 21
From their original breakout season in 2008 through their last playoff appearance in 2023, the Rays followed a similar pattern to winning: excellent defense (third in the majors in defensive runs saved over those years), speed on the bases (first in baserunning runs) and effective bullpens (third in ERA and second in win probability added).
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Tampa Bay’s 2026 team is not those Rays.
• Defense: While they’re sixth in DRS, the Rays are 26th in Statcast’s outs above average, with a couple of clear defensive liabilities in third baseman Junior Caminero and first baseman Jonathan Aranda.
• Baserunning: Despite the presence of speedster Chandler Simpson, the Rays rank tied for 12th in FanGraphs’ baserunning metric.
• Bullpen: The Rays are 21st in ERA and tied for 22nd in strikeout rate.
It must be the offense then, right? Not exactly. The Rays are 13th in runs scored — and tied for 25th in home runs.
OK, it must be the rotation then. Yes, sort of, as the Rays are second in the majors with a 2.94 ERA and have the second-lowest OPS allowed, although they’re just 24th in strikeout rate and 21st in innings pitched. It’s also a unit the Rays are scrambling to fill beyond the top three of Drew Rasmussen, Shane McClanahan and Nick Martinez after injuries to Steven Matz and Joe Boyle (and the season-ending surgery for Ryan Pepiot, who never made an appearance). Griffin Jax, the team’s projected top reliever entering the season, is now starting, which weakens the bullpen depth.
As you might have surmised, these aren’t the underlying statistics of a 30-15 team. One key number we skipped: The bullpen, at least until Hunter Bigge’s eight-run implosion in the 10th inning Saturday, had been clutch in close games, leading the majors in win probability added. Still, concerns about the bullpen depth, especially with Jax starting, and those overall numbers suggest this isn’t a pen that is going to keep that going. As good as Rasmussen and McClanahan have been, they’re also five-and-dive starters due to their history of injuries, which adds pressure on the pen that will add up over the course of a season.
This is a tricky one. Due to the mediocrity of the rest of the American League, if the Rays play just .500 the rest of the way, they’ll win 88 games, and that almost assuredly will get them into the playoffs. But we’re also looking at an offense that has no home runs from three of its regulars — Simpson, Taylor Walls and Ben Williamson — and one home run from its catchers. But are the Rays serious playoff contenders? Most certainly yes. The start is in the bank. But their big three of Caminero, Aranda and Yandy Diaz, plus those top three starters, will have to continue to do a lot of the work.
Record: 27-19, 10-3 in one-run games
Run differential: Plus-3
Preseason Power Ranking: 26
This was supposed to be a rebuilding season in Chaim Bloom’s first year as head of baseball operations. In the offseason, the Cardinals unloaded their top two position players from last season, Brendan Donovan and Willson Contreras, plus their top starting pitcher in Sonny Gray. They also traded Nolan Arenado and dealt away closer Ryan Helsley at the last deadline. As you can see from the preseason rankings, the expectations were understandably low.
These Cardinals are a younger, more athletic, much more interesting team. None of the regulars in the lineup are older than 27, and only the Washington Nationals have a younger average age among their position players. The Cardinals’ pitchers are the fourth-youngest group.
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Leading the way has been Jordan Walker, a strong MVP candidate through the first quarter of the season, hitting .301/.371/.584. It has been fun to see his rebound from top prospect who had a solid rookie year in 2023 to struggling prospect the past two seasons and now to potential star. It’s a unique roller-coaster ride; indeed, Walker’s struggles the past two seasons were severe enough that, even at 24 years old, many had written him off. His offensive numbers are legitimate, with his 100th-percentile bat speed producing a 95th-percentile hard-hit rate and 93rd-percentile expected slugging percentage. The improvements look sustainable.
Rookie second baseman JJ Wetherholt has been the other spark, hitting .233/.356/.401 with eight home runs, 33 runs scored and excellent defense at second base. With a good approach at the plate and the range of a shortstop, Wetherholt’s all-around game is already making him a potential All-Star candidate (although second base in the National League is loaded this year).
Indeed, with Masyn Winn, Wetherholt and center fielder Victor Scott II, the Cardinals’ up-the-middle defense is right up there with the Chicago Cubs for best in the majors. That’s important given the pitching staff ranks last in the majors in strikeout rate.
Despite the positives, it’s hard to reconcile a team with the lowest strikeout rate as a playoff contender. Here are the playoff teams from the past four seasons who ranked in the bottom 10 in pitcher strikeout rate:
2025: Cubs (21st)
2024: None
2023: Rangers (21st), Diamondbacks (22nd)
2022: Cardinals (28th)
That’s four out of 40 — although only the 2022 Cardinals were near the bottom of the league. That team also benefitted from two 100-loss teams in the division in the Cincinnati Reds and Pittsburgh Pirates (the Cardinals went 25-13 against them) and a strong offense with MVP Paul Goldschmidt and MVP candidate Nolan Arenado. This year’s NL Central, meanwhile, looks like the best division in the majors.
Of course, like the Rays, the Cardinals’ hot start is in the books. They’ve beaten the Dodgers and Rays in a series, split a two-game series with the Brewers and swept the Pirates in a four-game series, so they’ve played well against good teams. They haven’t played the Cubs yet (and don’t face them at all in September). The Cardinals certainly look better than the 70-92 preseason forecast, but the 10-3 record in one-run games and 6-1 in extra innings will be difficult to sustain.
Record: 24-23, 6-6 in one-run games
Run differential: Plus-18
Preseason Power Ranking: 22
The Pirates scored fewer runs last season than even lowly Colorado, their worst runs-per-game figure since 1985. The offense has improved from 3.60 runs per game to 4.87, good enough to rank seventh in the majors. Check out some of the team’s 2026 gains in OPS so far over their 2025 numbers:
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Oneil Cruz: Plus-113 points
Bryan Reynolds: Plus-50
Spencer Horwitz: Plus-10
Nick Gonzales: Plus-83
Konnor Griffin: Plus-79 over 2025 SS
Brandon Lowe: Plus-245 over 2025 2B
Ryan O’Hearn: Plus-133 over 2025 RF
Improvements everywhere! The holdovers are better and the three new additions — rookie Griffin and the veteran acquisitions Lowe and O’Hearn — have really helped to juice the offense. And Griffin’s current .713 OPS is only going to go up as the 20-year-old is already showing rapid improvement from his first three weeks. Maybe Lowe is a little over his head with his .551 slugging percentage, but it’s hard to classify it as a fluke considering he hit 31 home runs last year with the Rays. Cruz’s numbers are believable, right in line with what he did in 2024 as opposed to last year’s .200 batting average. In other words: These offensive gains feels like they can hold all season.
Yes, the Cardinals have the better record right now, are the better defensive team and cleaned up against the Pirates in that head-to-head showdown. There’s one major difference between the teams, of course: Paul Skenes. After that Opening Day disaster, when Cruz lost two fly balls in the sun as Skenes allowed five runs and got knocked out of the game, the Pittsburgh ace is 6-2 with a 1.82 ERA (although the Phillies scored five runs off him on Sunday). With Skenes leading the way, the Pirates are sixth in rotation ERA and gives them a playoff-worthy rotation.
Sure, St. Louis’ Michael McGreevy has pitched well so far, riding a low BABIP to a 2.10 ERA, but there’s huge gap between the projected rest of season results for Skenes versus McGreevy and the Pittsburgh rotation versus the St. Louis rotation, enough to make the Pirates the more likely playoff contender. They need to clean up a few things, such as offense at DH and bullpen depth, but Skenes’ value is high enough that if the rest of the team is a .500 team, they should make the playoffs.
Record: 24-22, 9-5 in one-run games
Run differential: Minus-7
Preseason Power Ranking: 28
Saturday’s win over the Cubs highlighted how the White Sox have transformed from unwatchable laughingstock to entertaining playoff contender in just two years:
1. They pounded five home runs, including two from Munetaka Murakami, his 16th and 17th of the season. The new three-true-outcomes king is hitting .235/.372/.562 with a hard-hit rate in the 100th percentile at 63% — highest in the majors. Yes, concerns about his ability to hit velocity are still legit (he’s batting .185 against 95-plus, which ranks 136th out of 172 qualified batters), but he draws enough walks (fourth-highest rate in the majors) and has done enough damage against other pitches that he still has a top-10 OPS. Albert Belle’s club record of 49 home runs might be in play.
2. Miguel Vargas and Colson Montgomery also homered, giving the White Sox three hitters with double-digit home runs already.
3. Sam Antonacci had two hits and scored twice from the leadoff spot. Antonacci and Chase Meidroth give the White Sox two supplementary-type players who get on base and get their uniforms dirty.
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4. Davis Martin allowed one run in six innings to improve to 6-1 with a 1.61 ERA. If the season were to end today, he’d be in the Cy Young conversation alongside Cam Schlittler and Jose Soriano. The improvement isn’t a fluke: He has improved his strikeout rate from 17.3% in 2025 to 27.4%, a huge year-over-year increase.
This one comes with a bit of an asterisk. Basically, a .500 team might make the playoffs in the AL … and the White Sox might be a .500 team. They’ll get Kyle Teel back soon, which will help the offense. Maybe rookie lefty Noah Schultz can turn into an impact starter. Otherwise though, there are clear holes here: the bottom of the lineup, the rotation aside from Martin, the bullpen depth and trustworthiness of closer Seranthony Dominguez. Still, there are good vibes brewing here, even if FanGraphs projects the White Sox to finish last in the division (although with everyone bunched between 74 and 81 wins). In this strange start to the season, who knows? Maybe the White Sox will be not just the surprise team of 2026, but one of the all-time shockers.
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