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The streak has ended. For 24 straight seasons from 2001 to 2024, we could confidently say we knew the pool from which college football’s national champion would emerge.
According to SportsOddsHistory.com, no national title winner in that span began the season with title odds longer than +5,000. No matter the title format — a BCS championship, then a four-team College Football Playoff and then, starting in 2024, a 12-team CFP — the champ came from a pool of about 14 to 18 favorites.
Then came Indiana. Curt Cignetti’s Hoosiers began the 2025 season at +10,000 — not ridiculously far from the elite pack but definitely outside the primary list of contenders — and rolled to 16 wins and their first ring. Now I must alter how I perceive the annual Ifs List.
For the past seven seasons, I’ve taken that premade list of contenders and looked at how many “ifs” are required to make that team champs. There are typically a couple of teams with two ifs, a good number with three and four, and a few (likely phony) contenders with five. To cover my bases and account for potential Indiana-like rises, I’m including not only the 15 teams with title odds of +5,000 or shorter, per DraftKings, but also the three longer shots with the fewest ifs. (Honestly, the three teams on that list surprised me a bit.)
As you would expect in 2026, there are lots of portal delivery needs for just about every team. As always, we won’t worry about obstacles such as injuries to stars, which could strike any team at any time. Those concerns are obvious and universal. But let’s charge forward into this new world of long-shot contenders and look at who’s most capable of winning the title this fall.
For the first time, I didn’t end up with a single team with only two “ifs.” If you watched last season play out, that makes sense — the most elite teams didn’t quite stand out as far from the pack, but at one point or another, quite a few teams looked to have title potential before Indiana took over the universe. We should expect another potentially wacky ride this fall.
If … the portal delivered a pass defense. Matt Patricia inherited the best defense in the country (per SP+) last season and, if anything, improved it. But the Buckeyes’ defense lost four top-40 NFL draft picks and seven picks in all. With four of his top five linemen and six of his top nine defensive backs gone, coach Ryan Day added two transfer ends, two tackles, two corners and two safeties. At least one of those in each position needs to become a stalwart in the lineup.
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If … Jeremiah Smith has batterymates. In Smith, Ohio State returns maybe the most-talented player in the country. But Julian Sayin’s next two targets in 2025 (both high draft picks) are gone, and only two other returnees caught even five passes last season. Between veteran Brandon Inniss, four veteran transfers and blue-chip youngsters Chris Henry Jr., Jerquaden Guilford and Legend Bey, a lot of players will need to thrive in more important roles.
If … new OC Arthur Smith can pick up the pace. Ohio State played at the second-slowest tempo last season (31.4 seconds per play) and averaged the third-fewest drives per game (9.9). It kept things calm and organized for Sayin, but when things turned urgent in their CFP quarterfinal loss to Miami, the pace never picked up, and the Buckeyes never produced the urgency necessary to deliver a comeback. With regular-season games against Oregon, Indiana and Texas, and a hopeful playoff run in its future, Ohio State should see a few more close-and-late situations this season. If all Smith does is improve the tempo when it needs improving, that’s probably a net win.
If … they’re a second-half (of the season) team. Notre Dame’s 2025 schedule was unfortunate in a couple of different ways. Not only did it feature just a pair of particularly CFP-worthy games, but those games also showed up in the first two weeks of the season, when coach Marcus Freeman was breaking in a new quarterback (CJ Carr) and defensive coordinator (Chris Ash). Carr took one week to get up to speed, Ash needed two, and by that point, the Irish were 0-2. Even while playing like a top-five team the rest of the way, they eventually couldn’t make up for that unfortunate start.
This season the Irish again have a light schedule that will minimize their margin for error. But with the big games coming Oct. 17 (at BYU) and Nov. 7 (Miami), they can ease into the season a bit.
If … the new run game clears the bar. The Irish rank first nationally in returning production, with Carr, No. 1 target Jordan Faison, a vastly experienced offensive line and most of an awesome defense returning. But running backs Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price both left to become first-round picks, and though Notre Dame pretty much always has a strong run game, replacements Aneyas Williams, Nolan James Jr. & Co. still have to meet a high standard.
If … a big-play receiver emerges. Malachi Fields caught only 36 passes last year, but four gained at least 40 yards, and 14 gained at least 20. He’s gone, as are Notre Dame’s next two most frequent big-play pass catchers.
TruMediaBetween veterans such as Faison and Jaden Greathouse and youngsters such as Micah Gilbert, Cam Williams and transfers Mylan Graham and Quincy Porter, someone needs to make up that big-play gap.
If … Arch Manning learns this one neat trick. It appeared the former golden-boy recruit had figured things out late in 2025, ranking first nationally in Total QBR after Halloween. But Manning’s inability to throw on the run was still a major hindrance: He was 82nd in completion percentage outside the pocket (49.2%) and 94th in completion rate on the move (48.6%). It’s a confusing weakness for someone so athletic, but neither he nor Texas will reach their ceiling until he improves in this regard.
If Arch Manning improves his throwing on the run, Texas’ offense should get a significant boost. David Buono/Icon SportswireIf … offensive depth isn’t an issue. Coach Steve Sarkisian signed three of the most coveted skill-corps transfers in the country in running backs Raleek Brown (Arizona State) and Hollywood Smothers (NC State) and receiver Cam Coleman (Auburn). If they all stay healthy, the Horns’ offense could be otherworldly. But it’s at least a little scary that, while those three guys came in, last season’s top four running backs and five of last season’s top seven pass targets left. It’s a similar story on the line, where three major transfers arrive but six of last season’s top nine depart. Sark traded depth for star power, and it’s easy to see how that might go awry.
If … Will Muschamp can still craft an elite D. Despite four straight top-25 defenses (per SP+) and despite Texas’ defense ranking ahead of the offense the past two seasons, Sarkisian elected to replace coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski with Muschamp, an old hand and longtime Georgia assistant. Does Muschamp have more defensive knowledge in a single toenail than most of us have in our entire bodies? Yes. Has it been 12 years since Muschamp actually oversaw (as head coach or coordinator) an elite defense? Also yes.
If … Josh Hoover is 90% Fernando. No one hits on every transfer, but Cignetti is on the hottest hot streak of all time right now, and with the way he swooped in and secured seemingly first-choice options at quarterback (TCU’s Hoover), running back (Boston College’s Turbo Richard) and receiver (Michigan State’s Nick Marsh and Tulane’s Shazz Preston), it’s easy to be optimistic.
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Fernando Mendoza set the bar impossibly high for Hoover, winning the Heisman, leading IU to its first national title and going No. 1 in the NFL draft. But if Hoover can perform in the same ballpark — top 15 or so in Total QBR (he was 28th last year) with an INT rate close to Mendoza’s — Indiana should be pretty awesome again.
If … the portal delivered a defensive line. In two seasons under coordinator Bryant Haines, IU has leaped from 73rd to 15th to second in defensive SP+. The return of end Daniel Ndukwe and tackles Tyrique Tucker and Mario Landino assures some continuity up front, but six other contributors are gone, and at least two of three transfer ends — Chiddi Obiazor (Kansas State), Tobi Osunsanmi (Kansas State) and Josh Burnham (Notre Dame) — need to hit for the Hoosiers to have the depth they need up front.
If … the portal delivered a secondary. It’s the same story in the back of the defense, where corner Jamari Sharpe and safety Amare Ferrell return, but at least one corner (Penn State’s AJ Harris or Montana State’s Carson Williams) and one safety (Cincinnati’s Quan Sanks or Wisconsin’s Preston Zachman) need to become solid contributors. Cignetti’s history suggests they will, but it hasn’t happened yet.
If … the offensive line holds up. Twenty-one tackles for loss, 11 sacks, 11 three-and-outs and 43.4% of snaps gaining zero or fewer yards. That’s what Oregon’s offense looked like in the Ducks’ season-ending losses the past two years — a 41-21 Rose Bowl defeat to Ohio State in 2024 and a 56-22 Peach Bowl walloping at Indiana’s hands in 2025. The Oregon O-line has been good enough for most of the past two years, but with the season on the line each year, it got ruthlessly invaded.
This season it returns All-America center Iapani Laloulu and all-conference guard Dave Iuli but will feature three new starters. Can it hold back defenders when it counts and give quarterback Dante Moore, running backs Jordon Davison and Dierre Hill Jr. & Co. a chance to make plays and win the biggest games of the season?
If … the defense finds a few more negative plays. From tackles A’Mauri Washington and Bear Alexander up front, to Matayo Uiagalelei and Teitum Tuioti on the edge, to corner Brandon Finney Jr. and safety transfer Koi Perich in the back, Oregon’s defense is loaded with experience and known quality. But the Ducks ranked just 46th in sack rate and 98th in stuff rate last year, and a lack of negative plays made them merely decent on third downs (52nd). Can new coordinator Chris Hampton unearth a few more TFLs?
If … coach Dan Lanning figures out the postseason. Oregon is 37-0 against teams that didn’t make the national title game over the past three years. They’re virtually upset proof. But when your last two CFP losses have come by a combined 54 points, that’s a black cloud until you rectify it.
If … someone, anyone, makes big plays. It has been a theme of mine all offseason, and Georgia fans are probably sick of it, but no major CFP contender made fewer big plays than the Bulldogs last season.
TruMediaGunner Stockton and the Dawgs were efficient enough to keep third downs manageable and were ruthlessly effective in the red zone (fourth in red zone TD rate), but occupying the same part of that chart as Iowa and the service academies indicates Georgia didn’t maximize its advantages in blue-chip personnel. One way or another, the Bulldogs need a few more chunk plays and easy points to move back from being a top-five or top-six program to being top one.
If … young receivers are good receivers. Eight Georgia players were targeted at least 20 times last season. Only two (receiver London Humphreys and tight end Lawson Luckie) return. Georgia Tech transfer Isiah Canion could have an immediate impact, but if Stockton is going to have the weapons he needs, any number of young former blue-chippers — receivers such as Talyn Taylor or CJ Wiley, tight ends such as Elyiss Williams, Jaden Reddell or freshman Kaiden Prothro — need to shine.
If … at least one DB transfer is a star. Coordinator Glenn Schumann will have his most experienced defense in years, but the secondary must replace three of last year’s top five. With sophomore corner Ellis Robinson IV and safety KJ Bolden, the star power remains high in the back, but among corners Braylon Conley (USC) and Gentry Williams (Oklahoma) and safeties Ja’Marley Riddle (East Carolina) and Khalil Barnes (Clemson), the transfer haul needs to produce a bit to assure proper experience and depth.
If … a new offensive line holds up. Dynamite trench play drove Miami’s run to the national title game, so it’s at least a little bit scary that the Hurricanes have to replace last season’s top four offensive linemen and three of their top five defensive linemen. Regarding the former, two regulars return in guards Matthew McCoy and Samson Okunlola, and coach Mario Cristobal brought in only one transfer in another interior lineman, Jamal Meriweather (Georgia). At tackle will be some combination of guys playing a new position or true or redshirt freshmen, including five-star Jackson Cantwell. Upside remains undeniable, but it could take a while for a new Miami O-line to jell.
If … big-play transfers keep making big plays. Aside from Georgia, no otherwise elite team made smaller big plays than Miami last season. We know running back Mark Fletcher Jr. can rip off a big one every now and then, and sophomore slot Malachi Toney’s potential remains off the charts. But Cristobal brought in three transfers who averaged more than 15 yards per catch last season — Cooper Barkate (Duke), Cam Vaughn (West Virginia) and Vandrevius Jacobs (South Carolina) — and if new quarterback Darian Mensah can hit them on a few intermediate or longer routes, look out.
If … the portal delivered a pass rush. Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor might have been Miami’s two best players during their CFP run, and they have departed for the NFL after combining for 36 TFLs and 22 sacks last season. Transfer Damon Wilson II (Missouri) was one of the portal’s most prolific pass rushers, but he’ll need help for Miami to replicate last season’s absurd numbers; otherwise the secondary will have to take on a much larger load.
If … coach Lane Kiffin remains a QB whisperer. If LSU combines last season’s defensive quality (12th in defensive SP+) with the typical Kiffin prowess on offense, the Tigers will have an immediate shot at top-10 quality. But that will require getting the best out of Sam Leavitt, who was brilliant during Arizona State’s 2024 stretch run but started both 2024 and 2025 in mediocre form and never rallied before succumbing to injuries last fall. In 20 career starts, he has produced a sub-50 Total QBR five times and has surpassed 80 only six times, four in that 2024 stretch run. Can Kiffin and coordinator Charlie Weis Jr. quickly bring out his best?
If … another remodeled offensive line holds up. Every year seems to bring a brand-new LSU O-line, and losing seven of last year’s top nine forced Kiffin to bring in eight transfers — who combined for only 26 FBS starts in 2025 (nine from All-Big 12 transfer Jordan Seaton) — to work with sophomore tackle Weston Davis and center Braelin Moore. Continuity up front is gold, and LSU has none of it.
If … the portal delivered a defensive line. Per SP+, Blake Baker crafted LSU’s best defense since 2018 last season, and in linebackers Whit Weeks and TJ Dottery (Ole Miss), corners PJ Woodland and DJ Pickett and safeties Tamarcus Cooley and Ty Benefield (Boise State), he has massive star potential with which to work. But on the D-line, he returns only one of last season’s top eight, and a majority of six transfers, including ends Princewill Umanmielen (Ole Miss) and Jordan Ross (Tennessee), and tackles Malik Blocton (Auburn) and Stephiylan Green (Clemson), need to be plug-and-play guys.
If … Tech has a quarterback. Not all ifs are the same size. This one’s obviously massive. Texas Tech romped through Big 12 play and enjoyed its first 12-win season almost despite the quarterback position, not because of it. And in a small sample, sophomore Will Hammond produced better numbers than 2025 starter Behren Morton. But Hammond is rushing to return from a knee injury, and sometimes small samples are misleading. Tech is a massive unknown here, which is, of course, why coach Joey McGuire embarked on the ill-fated pursuit of Brendan Sorsby in the first place. Tech is still a Big 12 favorite with mediocre QB play, but can Hammond top Morton’s 2025 play?
If … the portal delivered a receiving corps. The Tech run game should be dynamite, but last season’s top two pass targets are gone, and only one returning wideout topped 115 yards. The transfer quartet of Kenny Johnson (Pitt), Donte Lee Jr. (Liberty), Malcolm Simmons (Auburn) and Jalen Jones (Alabama State) needs to produce. I bet that it will.
If … the new front six lives up to the hype. McGuire and the Raiders lost most of last season’s dynamite front six but replaced it with some of the best portal stars available, including edge rushers Adam Trick (Miami Ohio), Trey White (San Diego State) and Jamond Mathis (Kent State), tackles Julien Laventure (Akron) and Bryce Butler (Washington) and linebackers Austin Romaine (Kansas State) and Corey Platt Jr. (Houston). I’m giving this batch the benefit of the doubt, but Tech’s front was so good last season, and the standard is ridiculously high, especially if the QB play doesn’t improve.
If … older Marcel Reed is a more consistent Marcel Reed. Reed is one of the most dangerous dual-threat QBs in the country. His fight-or-flight instincts are terrific. Translation: He doesn’t take many sacks, at least not unless Rueben Bain Jr. is involved — and per SP+, last season he piloted A&M’s best offense since 2014. But when things go wrong, they can stay wrong for a while. He threw multiple picks in four of his final six games last season, and his Total QBR regressed in each of the final four. Can he improve with a new coordinator (Holmon Wiggins) and a new offensive line?
If … the portal delivered an offensive line. A&M returns plenty of veterans in 2026, but almost none are on the O-line; it lost six of last season’s top seven, and coach Mike Elko brought in four SEC transfer starters to fill those gaps. Is this a genuine plug-and-play situation?
If … the portal delivered a defensive line. It’s definitely a bit scary that the Aggies are rebuilding on both lines, especially considering how important those lines were to last season’s 11-win campaign. Two-thirds of last year’s D-line snaps are gone, and though Elko has recruited well up front, he’ll either get major contributions from transfers such as end Ryan Henderson (San Diego State) and tackles Brandon Davis-Swain (Colorado) and CJ Mims (North Carolina), or he’ll be reliant on a few unproven youngsters.
If … the big plays balance out. A&M improved to 14th in defensive SP+, but the risk-reward balance was off sometimes.
TruMediaRisk and aggression are fun, but that’s too many big plays for a national title defense.Ole Miss Rebels (+3,000)
If … John David Baker clears an extremely high bar. Pete Golding aced his December head coaching audition, stepping in after Lane Kiffin abandoned his Ole Miss squad before the CFP. But in 2026 we get to see what an actual Golding program might look like, and the bar is ridiculously high. That’s doubly true for a team that fielded its six best offenses of the post-Eli Manning era in the past six seasons. Golding’s hire of East Carolina’s John David Baker as coordinator suggests a commitment to maintaining Kiffin’s tempo and big-play hunting, but this is indeed a high bar.
If … the portal delivered a receiving corps. The return of quarterback Trinidad Chambliss and running back Kewan Lacy assures a certain amount of star power, but five of last season’s top six pass catchers are gone, and a few of the seven incoming transfers must immediately become standouts. The most likely of the bunch: slot man Johntay Cook (Syracuse/Texas), Horatio Fields (Auburn/Wake Forest) and Darrell Gill Jr. (Syracuse).
If … the run front holds up a bit better. Returning linemen Will Echoles and Kam Franklin had standout moments in the CFP, but overall, Ole Miss’ run defense wasn’t good enough, finishing 64th in yards allowed per rush (no sacks). Suntarine Perkins and transfer Jonathan Maldonado (Nevada) should assure a strong pass rush, but the run defense needs improvement.
If … the portal delivered a secondary. Six of last season’s top eight DBs are gone, and Golding signed five veteran transfers, including four from the SEC. (SEC teams sure put a premium on SEC experience, didn’t they?) Corner Jay Crawford (Auburn) and safeties Edwin Joseph (Florida State) and Joenel Aguero (Georgia) need to become immediate stars.
If … John Mateer’s floor gets a little higher. Mateer is tough, fearless and, according to OU’s social media, strong as hell.
Not AI 😤 @John_Mateer4 pic.twitter.com/0qQ2g5owsq
— Oklahoma Football (@OU_Football) June 30, 2026
But he finished 50th in Total QBR last season. Though some of that can be attributed to the numbers he posted while rushing back from a hand injury, he took 21 sacks in his last eight games and threw four picks with a 58% completion rate in his last three. A little consistency and finesse would go a long way.
If … continuity rebuilds the run game. The Sooners ranked 124th in yards per carry (no sacks) last season, and leading running back Tory Blaylock averaged just 4.0 per carry. Blaylock, Xavier Robinson and five linemen with at least six starts last season return, and coach Brent Venables added another pair of FBS starters up front. The run game should improve, but it needs to improve a lot.
If … the portal delivers a receiving corps. The return of big-play man Isaiah Sategna III was a boon to OU’s playoff hopes, but Mateer’s next four targets are all gone, replaced by five transfers, including Trell Harris (Virginia) and Parker Livingstone (Texas). Is that an upgrade?
If … exciting, young defensive linemen deliver. Defensive end Taylor Wein and tackle David Stone both return up front for an awesome OU defense, and the linebacking corps and secondary are loaded. But the Sooners still have to replace four of last season’s top six linemen. Venables has inked countless blue-chip defenders in recent seasons, and he’ll need at least a couple — ends Adepoju Adebawore or Danny Okoye, tackles Jayden Jackson or Trent Wilson, or star freshman Jake Kreul? — to provide much-needed depth.
If … Keelon Russell is really, really good. The Crimson Tide fell from sixth to 36th in offensive SP+ last season and lost their starting quarterback, their leading rusher, three of their top four targets and six of their top seven linemen. That’s a red (crimson?) alert right there! But in five-star redshirt freshman Russell, they might have a trump card. If he’s ready to become a star, everything else might click. But anything less will bring trouble.
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If … a running back is ready to break some tackles. Not including sacks, Bama ranked 127th in yards per carry (4.1) last season, and the Tide didn’t have a back who averaged even 2.8 yards per carry after contact. Is a former star recruit — be it Daniel Hill, Kevin Riley, AK Dear or freshman Ezavier Crowell — ready to look the part?
If … Ryan Coleman-Williams got rid of the yips. Among regular targets, no one in the country suffered a higher drop rate than Coleman-Williams’ 13.0%. The QB of choice will desperately need him to look like the No. 1 receiver he was supposed to be.
If … Adrian Klemm is really, really good. Bama had its worst O-line in ages last year and is completely starting over in 2026. Klemm, the new offensive line coach, has his work cut out for him.
If … the portal delivered a defensive line. I don’t have many concerns about Kane Wommack’s defense; the secondary could be especially excellent. But six of last season’s top eight linemen are gone, and transfers such as Devan Thompkins (USC), Terrance Green (Oregon) and Kedrick Bingley-Jones (Mississippi State) need to contribute quickly.
If … Jayden Maiava has pass catchers. Maiava is one of the most proven returning quarterbacks in the sport and should have a dynamite run game at his disposal thanks to backs Waymond Jordan and King Miller, and an experienced line. But of the seven players with at least 125 receiving yards last season, only sophomore wideout Tanook Hines returns. Transfer Terrell Anderson (NC State) will need to be an immediate hit, as will a few young, unproven options.
If … Gary Patterson still has it. The last time the 66-year-old Patterson, the legendary former TCU head coach, was at the helm of a top-20 defense was 2014. His innovative use of the nickel back (among other things) changed college football, but can he still find edges and keep USC’s recent defensive improvement going?
If … Patterson unearths a run defense. USC ranked 36th in defensive SP+ in 2025 — the Trojans’ best ranking since 2017 — but they were still just 96th in yards allowed per carry (no sacks) and gave up at least 170 rushing yards in three of four losses. The defensive line has experience, some new blood and further improvement to engineer.
If … an incredible freshman class produces. Title pushes require depth, and though USC’s elite recruiting class doesn’t need to produce immediate stars, it would sure help the cause if at least one freshman stood out at receiver (Boobie Feaster? Kayden Dixon-Wyatt? Trent Mosley?), defensive end (Luke Wafle? Simote Katoanga?) and cornerback (Elbert Hill IV? Brandon Lockhart?).
If … the Coliseum brings it. With Ohio State, Oregon and Washington all visiting L.A., this is USC’s biggest home schedule in ages. If the Trojans go 2-1 against those three, their odds of reaching their first CFP increase dramatically.
If … the Jason Beck-Bryce Underwood partnership works. From my Big Ten preview: “Beck is one of the more delightful offensive coordinators in the country and turned Devon Dampier, with dynamite running capabilities and a decent but limited arm, into the quarterback of a top-10 offense. But Beck will now call plays for Underwood, the No. 1 prospect in the 2025 recruiting class. … Will Underwood run more? Will Beck seek similar efficiency with a more customary run game?”
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If … Andrew Marsh is a star. As a freshman slot receiver, Marsh averaged a stellar 2.3 yards per route with no drops. He’s the only semi-proven returning pass catcher, though, and he might need to raise his game even more.
If … the sophomores shine. Underwood, Marsh, running back Jordan Marshall, transfer receiver JJ Buchanan (Utah), right tackle Andrew Sprague, defensive end Dominic Nichols and linebackers Chase Taylor and Nathaniel Owusu-Boateng are all among the Wolverines’ most exciting players in 2026. They’re also all sophomores. That’s simultaneously exciting and scary.
If … the Utah transfers remain studs. Buchanan, defensive end John Henry Daley (coming off of an Achilles injury), defensive tackle Jonah Lea’ea, nickel Smith Snowden and star freshman Salesi Moa — a receiver who could also easily end up at defensive back — followed coach Kyle Whittingham from Salt Lake City to Ann Arbor, and all five need to be instant hits.
If … the “old, hard-nosed veteran coaching a bunch of blue-chippers” thing works. Whittingham was absurdly successful at Utah, but the 66-year-old inherits a job with higher expectations and more former star recruits. This could work out beautifully, but it’s not a guarantee.
In going through the eight teams with title odds between +5,000 and +10,000, I found three that I could realistically turn into contenders with only four ifs. There are some pretty big ifs here, but don’t write off BYU, Missouri or Tennessee just yet.
If … Josh Heupel has a quarterback. Tennessee returns its leading rusher, two of its top three receivers and four starting offensive linemen, and Heupel hired one of the nation’s best defensive coordinators (Jim Knowles) to fix his defense. Why aren’t the Volunteers generating more buzz? Because the starting QB probably will be either redshirt freshman George MacIntyre or true freshman Faizon Brandon. Both are former blue-chippers, but they’ve combined for 69 career yards, and the Vols are scheduled to play four projected top-11 teams.
If … a young defensive line holds up. Heupel is mostly riding with what he has up front despite losing five of last season’s top six (and despite a poor run defense). Tackle Daevin Hobbs and transfer end Jordan Norman (Tulane) are nearly the only semi-proven options, and youngsters such as tackles Xavier Gilliam (Penn State) and Isaiah Campbell, and ends Mariyon Dye and maybe freshman Carter Gooden must come through.
If … the portal delivered a secondary. Sophomore corner Ty Redmond is a potential star, but six of last season’s top eight DBs are gone, and two to four transfers could start. Safety TJ Metcalf (Michigan), corner Jadais Richard (Miami) and nickel Qua Moss (Kansas State) are exciting, but the Vols need a high hit rate here.
If … Knowles doesn’t need a year. Knowles has crafted brilliant defenses at Duke, Oklahoma State and Ohio State, but he needed a year to figure things out in each instance, and in his only season at Penn State, the Nittany Lions dropped from fourth to 23rd in defensive SP+. Heupel is hiring Knowles to be an immediate firefighter, but that’s not what he has been to date.
If … new pass catchers emerge. I have far more questions about the eliteness potential of the BYU offense than the defense. Quarterback Bear Bachmeier, running back LJ Martin and three O-line starters return, but last season’s top three pass catchers don’t, and Martin is the only returnee with more than 15 catches. Coach Kalani Sitake added exciting former blue-chip transfers in receiver Kyler Kasper (Oregon) and tight ends Walker Lyons (USC) and Roger Saleapaga (Oregon), but former backups such as Jojo Phillips and Cody Hagen — combined: 26 catches for only 258 yards last season — need to unearth some upside.
If … the big plays show up. Few teams can play more physically than BYU, and the addition of Lyons and Saleapaga should only enhance that. But like Georgia and Miami, the Cougars didn’t exactly have the world’s most explosive offense: They were 29th in success rate but 104th in yards per successful play. Now they must figure out how to increase their chunk-play capabilities without last season’s three best pass catchers.
If … the offensive line remains a strength. I think it will, but three regulars are gone, and at least one transfer — junior Jr Sia (Utah State) or sophomores Paki Finau (Washington) or Zak Yamauchi (Stanford) — must thrive immediately. Finau probably has the most upside.
If … Kelly Poppinga fills big shoes. With coordinator Jay Hill off to Michigan, Poppinga, a longtime former Bronco Mendenhall assistant at BYU and Virginia, takes over. His first defense will be wonderfully experienced (10 of 16 players with 200-plus snaps return) but will need to replace ace linebacker Jack Kelly and rein in the big plays a bit.
If … Chip Lindsey harnesses Austin Simmons’ upside. Simmons is Beau Pribula’s opposite. Pribula generated efficiency, but his limited downfield explosiveness hampered Mizzou’s upside last season; Simmons, on the other hand, might have the nation’s largest range between ceiling and floor. In only 84 dropbacks last season, the Ole Miss transfer completed 14 passes of more than 20 yards — Pribula had 15 in 319 dropbacks — but he also threw five interceptions and took five sacks. If new offensive coordinator Lindsey helps him cut the mistakes, Mizzou’s upside is massive.
If … the Tigers are still YAC kings. Ahmad Hardy and Jamal Roberts combined to rush for 2,402 yards last season, and each averaged at least 4.3 yards per carry after contact. Each is also scheduled to return this fall.
TruMediaBut Hardy’s status is uncertain after he was shot in the leg in May. Roberts’ return assures the Tigers of a high-level No. 1, but the ceiling isn’t the same without Hardy.
If … there’s a second pass rusher. Mizzou has had a top-20 defense, per SP+, for three straight years. But last season’s top three pass rushers are gone, and returning end Darris Smith will need a dance partner on third-and-long, be it a transfer (Florida State’s Jaden Jones? Baylor’s Kamauryn Morgan?) or a youngster (Daeden Hopkins? Demarcus Johnson?).
If … the portal delivered a secondary. Coach Eli Drinkwitz spent a lot of his transfer budget on new DBs after losing seven of last season’s top eight. There’s reason to be excited about newcomers including corners Chris Graves Jr. (Ole Miss) and Jahlil Florence (Oregon) and nickel Kensley Louidor-Faustin (Auburn), but Drinkwitz needs a lot of hits.
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