2026 NFL draft trade grades: Sizing up deals for top picksplayEvaluating the impact Auburn’s edge Keldric Faulk will make on the Titans (1:03)SEC Now’s Chris Doering explains why he believes Faulk will fit in well with Tennessee and expands on what he wants to see more of from him as he proves himself in the NFL. (1:03)Seth WalderApr 24, 2026, 12:40 AM ETClose
Seth Walder is an analytics writer at ESPN, specializing in quantitative analysis. He is also a regular on “ESPN Bet Live” and helps cover sports betting. Seth has been at ESPN since 2017. He previously worked at the New York Daily News covering the Jets and Giants. You can follow Seth on X via @SethWalder.
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The 2026 NFL draft is underway, and teams are spicing things up with trades. There was already a ton of action on that front entering Thursday, with seven of the 32 first-round spots switching hands in earlier deals. The movement continued in Round 1 once things got rolling. We’re here to size up the biggest trades from all angles.
A lot of people say that we’ll find out who won draft-day trades in three or four years. Nonsense! NFL general managers don’t have the benefit of hindsight when it comes to making the trades, so why should analysts have it when evaluating them? I’m grading these deals immediately, based on the information available — just like the teams are doing.
To evaluate these deals, I’ll be relying heavily on our Approximate Value-based draft pick calculations, along with important factors such as positional value, salary cap implications and short- and long-term team outlook. Trades during the draft can be enormously consequential and set the direction for a franchise for years to come, so don’t sleep on the importance of faring well here.
This page will be updated with deals as they come in throughout the draft, but we’re grading only the biggest ones.
NFL draft coverage:
NFL draft trade tracker
Titans shore up pass rush; Bills trade down for third time
The Titans went offense at No. 4 with Ohio State wide receiver Carnell Tate, and they decided not to wait until Friday to address the other side of the ball.
Auburn’s Keldric Faulk was expected to go a few picks earlier, as ESPN’s NFL Draft Day Predictor thought there was only a 20% chance he would be on the board at No. 31 heading into Thursday. Now, he joins a new-look defensive line that includes Jermaine Johnson II, John Franklin-Myers and first-team All-Pro Jeffery Simmons.
This wasn’t as cheap of a trade-up, like the Jets’ deal was one pick before. However, the overpay was much less than a typical first-round, non-QB deal.
Buffalo walked away with a late-fifth-round pick’s worth of surplus value, according to ESPN’s draft pick valuations — though that doesn’t take into account that they lost fifth-year option privileges this year. Still, value is value, and the forecast for the Bills’ No. 35 pick will be similar to what they could’ve got at No. 31.
49ers pull off second trade; Jets get WR help
Jets get: No. 30 49ers get: Nos. 33, 179
Jets grade: B+ 49ers grade: B-
The Jets were the third AFC East team in four picks to move up exactly three spots. They paid the cheapest price by far, giving up No. 179 to move from 33 to 30. They landed Indiana’s Omar Cooper Jr., helping fill out a receivers room that really needed help behind Garrett Wilson.
Cooper was a player the Jets were potentially linked to at No. 16, but he — like Makai Lemon before him — fell unexpectedly. He had just a 12% chance to reach No. 30, according to ESPN’s Draft Day Predictor entering the first round.
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Like I’ve written about other picks below, that doesn’t mean the Jets necessarily got a player worth the No. 21 pick (his projected median selection point) at 30. However, it does at least mitigate any value lost on average, according to our draft pick valuation charts.
In this case, there was hardly any! In fact, this was the cheapest trade-up overpay for a non-quarterback over the past 10 drafts, according to ESPN’s draft pick valuations. Add in the fact that this trade-up crossed the first-round barrier, meaning the Jets gained a fifth-year option (which isn’t worth a ton but is worth something), and I like this deal for New York. Almost every early trade-up is a bad deal. But this was a good one.
AFC East rivals make a Round 1 deal
Patriots get: No. 28 Bills get: Nos. 31, 125
Patriots grade: B Bills grade: B
The Dolphins gave up No. 90 to move up three spots. One selection later, the Patriots also moved up three spots — but it cost them only No. 125 to pull it off.
The move up was to select Utah tackle Caleb Lomu, who could have been a candidate for the Chiefs a pick later. The Patriots have publicly backed Will Campbell even after he struggled in the Super Bowl, but perhaps now Campbell will slide to guard and put Lomu at left tackle. Lomu could also be the long-term plan at right tackle, where 35-year-old Morgan Moses is stationed. Either way, the Patriots needed and got some long-term talent at tackle.
In a vacuum, the Bills come out ahead in ESPN’s draft pick valuations. However, it’s a cheap overpay relative to most other first-round trade-ups. And I’m more sympathetic to this trade because Lomu also represented the end of the large tier of tackles who were likely to be selected in the first round. After he was gone, there was a perceived drop-off at the position.
Dolphins make small move up to help secondary
Dolphins get: Nos. 27, 138 49ers get: Nos. 30, 90
Dolphins grade: C 49ers grade: B+
The Dolphins entered last season with a serious problem at cornerback. But in 2026, they’ll at least have a first-round pick at the position. Miami traded up three spots to secure San Diego State cornerback Chris Johnson at No. 27. The cost? One of the Dolphins’ four third-round picks.
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What Chris Johnson brings to the Dolphins
Check out the highlights from Chris Johnson’s draft reel.
According to ESPN’s draft pick valuations, the Dolphins overpaid by a fringe late third-round or early fourth-round pick — indicative of the fact that the player a team gets at No. 27 should be expected to be barely better than the player they would get at No. 30.
There was certainly a chance Johnson would have fallen three more spots to No. 30. And even if not, the Dolphins could have taken another similar-caliber player! Cornerbacks Colton Hood (Tennessee), Avieon Terrell (Clemson), Jermod McCoy (Tennessee) and Brandon Cisse (South Carolina) were all still on the board.
Some will say this move makes sense because the Dolphins still have three third-rounders, but that is shortsighted. Just because the Dolphins acquired extra draft assets doesn’t mean they should give them away for less than they’re worth!
The Texans couldn’t wait two more picks to continue their ever-churning offensive line rebuild. Georgia tech guard Keylan Rutledge will join an offensive line that has Wyatt Teller and Ed Ingram at guard but certainly could use another potential starter in the interior.
Relative to other first-round trades, the overpay was relatively mild. But still, the package Houston sent Buffalo was worth more than the Texans got in return. The Bills picked up the equivalent of a late-fourth or early-fifth-round pick of surplus value.
Also, this was likely a trade up just to reach. Entering Thursday, ESPN’s Draft Day Predictor gave Rutledge just a 2% chance of being selected in the first round. Mel Kiper Jr. did have Rutledge at No. 36 in his two-round mock draft a few days ago — but still, that’s 10 picks later!
The Eagles traded up for their A.J. Brown replacement before officially dealing their star wide receiver away. Philadelphia dealt two fourth-round picks for the right to move up from 23 to 20 in a deal with the Cowboys in order to select USC pass catcher Makai Lemon.
With Brown likely headed to the Patriots after June 1, Lemon fills an immediate need as a second wide receiver opposite DeVonta Smith.
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Lemon fell a lot further than expected. Entering Thursday, there was only a 4% chance he would still be on the board at No. 20. That mitigates the value lost in the trade up, though the fact that several teams that could have used a wide receiver passed on him is a relevant data point, too.
In a vacuum, the Eagles lost out in this swap. The two fourths are, on average, worth more than the difference between the player the Eagles could have landed at 20 vs. 23, according to ESPN’s draft pick valuations. Because of that, I would not have made this trade — but I’m not too down on the deal from Philadelphia’s perspective because Lemon slid down the board and there seems to be a clear tier drop at wide receiver after him.
The Cowboys could have picked Lemon themselves — especially if they are seriously considering trading George Pickens or letting him walk in a year — but the extra value via trade down is generally worth it. Some will scoff at trading with a team within the division, but I think the opposite is true. Who better to take draft picks from than a rival?
The Cowboys saw Ohio State safety Caleb Downs falling down the draft board and decided to guarantee they could draft him.
Dallas traded two compensatory fifth-round picks to move up one slot in a deal with the Dolphins. According to ESPN’s draft pick valuations, the Dolphins still come out ahead with the extra picks, but it’s a below-average overpay for a first-round non-QB. Plus, Dallas is acquiring a player who was expected to already be off the board. Entering Thursday night, Downs had only a 52% chance to be on the board at No. 8 and just a 12% chance to make it to No. 11, according to ESPN’s Draft Day Predictor.
That doesn’t quite mean that I think that the Cowboys basically got the No. 8 pick for the price of trading up to No. 11 — the fact that Downs was passed over for 10 picks should tell us something — but it does mitigate the perceived loss in value. Plus, it could be argued that by making this trade, the Cowboys avoided having to select a player who was a tier below the players drafted to that point of the draft.
Downs is a premier prospect for a defense that badly needs one. Dallas ranked last in EPA per play on defense last season, so this is a trade I’m good with.
This was also a fine move for the Dolphins. They added a couple of Day 3 picks and drafted a player — Alabama offensive tackle Kadyn Proctor — they arguably would have selected anyway.
Chiefs trade with Browns, move up to No. 6
Chiefs get: No. 6 Browns get: Nos. 9, 74, 148
Chiefs grade: D+ Browns grade: A-
The Chiefs had a rare opportunity to draft in the top 10 after their disappointing 2025 campaign, entering Thursday with the No. 9 pick. They decided to move up even higher.
Kansas City dealt a third-round pick and a fifth-rounder to move up three spots, leaping from No. 9 to 6 in a deal with the Browns in order to select LSU cornerback Mansoor Delane. Delane immediately fills the Chiefs’ drastic need at cornerback after Kansas City lost two starting corners to the Rams this offseason — Trent McDuffie (trade) and Jaylen Watson (free agency).
The Chiefs are betting on defensive coordinator Steve Spanguolo getting the most of whatever cornerbacks they have and developing that young talent. Now we know that plan includes Delane.
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What Mansoor Delane brings to the Chiefs
What does Mansoor Delane bring to the Chiefs?
But was it a smart deal? I don’t think so.
The trade was even on the Jimmy Johnson chart, but that is an antiquated measure and is indicative of NFL teams’ overconfidence in their ability to forecast the difference between one prospect from another. By ESPN’s Approximate Value-based draft pick valuations — which are based on how players at each draft slot actually perform — the Chiefs executed a larger-than-average overpay for a first-round, non-QB trade up.
Here’s the kicker: There was a good chance that Delane would have fallen to No. 9. In fact, at the time of his selection, the Draft Day Predictor gave Delane a 90% chance to make it to the ninth pick. Even if that was a little high, there’s still a good chance that the Chiefs surrendered third- and fifth-round picks for nothing!
This is an easy win for the Browns. Trading down early in the NFL draft is one of the most obvious ways for teams to gain an advantage. Cleveland walks away with extra draft capital and still got Utah offensive tackle Spencer Fano — a highly ranked player at a position of need — with the No. 9 pick.
