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Ole Miss had just wrapped spring practice last year, and Lane Kiffin was feeling unsettled, so he called fellow SEC coach Kirby Smart to vent.
“I think we stink,” Kiffin told Smart.
The Georgia coach had just finished reviewing footage of the Bulldogs’ spring practice sessions from a few years earlier, comparing what his national championship teams looked like at that point in the year to what his current roster offered.
“I think we stink, too,” Smart replied.
You could chalk the pessimism up to the normal preseason paranoia that grips most coaches, but Kiffin had another explanation.
“I still look at things trying to build an Alabama team like when I was there, or like Georgia was four or five years ago,” Kiffin stated. “Every year, I’m wanting that, but probably no one’s ever going to do that again. No one will ever have a roster like that again.”
The transfer portal, NIL, revenue sharing, and an increased understanding of how money equates to wins has helped even the playing field in college football in recent years — opening the door to Cinderellas like Indiana. But it’s also ushering out the era of stockpiled talent, which those Alabama teams of the 2010s enjoyed.
And yet, Kiffin’s Ole Miss and Smart’s Georgia teams ended up combining to go 25-4 (with two losses to each other) and both made the College Football Playoff. They were, despite what their coaches saw early on, quite good, at least by today’s standards.
“The floor is rising in college football,” stated Texas A&M coach Mike Elko. “And the ceiling is dropping immensely, to where the top teams are significantly worse than they were four or five years ago.”
In other words, good luck trying to put together a thoughtful preseason ranking. Roster turnover, wildly divergent schedules and massive financial disparities make it so evaluating any team comes with a healthy dose of Kiffin’s “I think we stink” perspective.
But until the games start and there are some actual data points, we’re left to make some educated guesses. So, once again, presenting a tiered ranking of all 138 FBS teams — guaranteed to be accurate for at least as long as nobody knows any better.
ESPN Research contributed to this story.
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Indiana Hoosiers
Miami Hurricanes
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Ohio State Buckeyes
Indiana is the team to beat this year. Doug Murray/Icon SportswireHere is an incomplete list of things that would’ve sounded more realistic than “defending national champion Indiana Hoosiers,” three years ago.”Tony-Award-winning vocalist Ed Orgeron.” “Progressive new ideas from the NCAA.” “Embattled North Carolina coach Bill Belichick.”Yet, here we are. Our tiers begin with college football’s indisputable standard bearer, a program that as recently as 2023, was about as relevant as a MySpace page. Indiana is 27-2 under Curt Cignetti, with its only two losses coming to the No. 1 and No. 2 teams in the country in 2024.There are a million problems in college football right now, but the fact that Indiana could accomplish this is an emphatic reminder that the sport continues to thrive in spite of itself.More importantly, Indiana’s ascent is proof that, with the right coach and the right investment, there’s a blueprint for almost anyone to win it all. That’s something that simply didn’t exist before NIL, the portal and a slew of lawyers arrived.Now, Indiana turns its attention to an even bigger task: sustaining success. Fernando Mendoza and all those James Madison transfers who engineered the Hoosiers’ rise are gone now. Can Cignetti reload? It’ll be one of the most intriguing questions of 2026, but at this point, who’s betting against him?
Of course, the flip side of the optimism the Hoosiers created for all those supposed “have nots” is the rest of Tier 1: Miami, Notre Dame and Ohio State are old-school powers, deeply (and financially) committed to winning football games.
If Indiana gave all the Davids hope, the Buckeyes, Canes and Irish are here to remind everyone that Goliath is still not one to be trifled with.
Numbers to know:
Last year, Indiana scored on 55.4% of its drives vs. Power 4 opponents. Power 4 opponents scored on 21% of their drives vs. Indiana. That margin of plus-34.4% is the best by any team in the playoff era.
Interceptions thrown by Indiana QBs the past two years: 13
Interceptions thrown by Josh Hoover over the past two years: 24
Last year, Miami played 11 teams that finished in the FPI top 40. Duke and Virginia, the two teams that played for the ACC championship, played eight combined.
Miami had a plus-30 sack differential last season, best in FBS. But it lost 14,601 career snaps of experience off its offensive and defensive lines from last year.
Since 2011, Ohio State has ended a season with back-to-back losses four times. The following years the Buckeyes went 12-0 (2012), 14-1 with a national title (2014) and 11-2 with a national title (2024). They lost their final two last year.
Ohio State’s defense has gone 24 straight games without allowing more than 24 points, the longest active streak in the country and the second longest by any team in the playoff era (Iowa, 2018-21).
Notre Dame returns 72% of its offensive and defensive snaps from last season, according to ESPN’s Bill Connelly. That’s the best rate in the country.
No team had a better explosive play differential last season vs. FBS opponents than Notre Dame (plus-7.5%).
Leonard Moore has allowed 19 completions for a first down as the primary defender in his career. Eleven of them came when Notre Dame held a double-digit lead. None came when the Irish were trailing. He allowed just four in his past 11 games.
Georgia Bulldogs
Oregon Ducks
Texas Longhorns
OK, let’s get this out of the way right off the top: We’re sorry Georgia. Yes, the Dawgs have been in the penthouse suite so long that, even if they no longer own the top tier of the sport, they should at least have squatter’s rights. But it’s also hard not to account for at least a small step back from the rarified air Georgia inhabited.
Yes, there are the back-to-back one-and-dones in the College Football Playoff. In fact, hard as it may be to believe, Georgia’s last playoff win was the 65-7 drubbing of TCU for the 2022 title. Eleven different schools have a more recent College Football Playoff win than Georgia.
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But here’s the other thing that’s concerning: Georgia’s 2021-23 run was utterly dominant. The Dawgs were 52-3 vs. Power 5 teams in that span, and their wins came by an average of 27 points per game. Since then, Georgia is still a very good 18-5 vs. Power 4 competition, but those 18 wins have come by less than 13 points per game. Meanwhile, Smart has been a leading critic of college football’s new landscape, hinted at his reluctance to pay big money to incoming freshmen and taken (and lost) the fewest transfers in the SEC (30 arrivals, 43 departures over the past three years). So, less dominance despite a lot of wins, a high-profile coach pushing back on the new realities of college football, limited use of the portal … remind you of anyone else? Perhaps a team about an hour north of Athens? One that went 7-6 last year?
We’re not saying Georgia is about to fall off a cliff — or even that Smart is all that much like Dabo Swinney — just that, in this new college football world, it doesn’t take much to go from showing a few cracks in the dam to a full-blown flood of misery.
Or, maybe Georgia wins it all this year. If Smart can’t tell when his team stinks or when it’s great, how are we supposed to know?
Our trust issues extend a bit to Oregon and Texas, too. Both rosters are loaded, but it’s hard not to have a small dose of skepticism.
Oregon looked dominant last year, right up until it hit a wall against Indiana. Under Dan Lanning, Oregon is 5-7 vs. top-15 opponents. Four of those five wins have come by a touchdown or less. Four of those seven losses have come by 10 points or more (all three exceptions vs. Washington).
Last year, Texas was supposed to be … what’s the word we’re looking for? Better? Ascendant? Improved? Oh, no, sorry … Texas was back, baby! Right up until the Horns lost to a woeful Florida team that cost them a playoff bid.
That the Ducks and Horns have, arguably, the top two NFL QB prospects in the game right now offers ample reason for optimism. But both schools also operate in a “believe it when we see it” space for the time being.
Numbers to know:
Just 39% of Georgia’s passing yards last year came on throws more than 10 yards downfield (126th out of 134 FBS teams).
Georgia’s pressure rate on non-blitz dropbacks vs. Power 4 opponents was just 24.5% — 63rd out of 68 Power 4 schools. On 337 overall dropbacks when the Dawgs’ D didn’t blitz, it recorded just nine sacks, down from 21 a year earlier and 36 during the 2021 national title run.
No team threw for more yards targeting tight ends and running backs last year than Oregon (1,581).
Oregon corner Brandon Finney Jr. contested 73% of the throws in which he was the primary defender last season, the second-best rate among Power 4 DBs (minimum 25 targets).
Texas running backs averaged 100.2 rushing yards per game last year, 103rd nationally, with just six rushing TDs. Only 10 FBS teams had fewer touchdowns by running backs.
No defense in the country averaged more sacks per game when not blitzing last year than Texas (2.54).
BYU Cougars
LSU Tigers
Oklahoma Sooners
Texas A&M Aggies
Texas Tech Red Raiders
USC Trojans
How will LSU fare in Lane Kiffin’s first year? Javier Gallegos/The Advocate via APLincoln Riley says his program is now ready to compete for a national championship.Lane Kiffin left a team that was a play away from the national title game last year, because he thinks he has a better shot to win one at LSU.Cody Campbell is investing in a Texas Tech national title the same way Mark Zuckerberg is investing in failed AI buildouts.Tier 3 is chock full of title aspirations, but there are some legitimate questions. Can Kiffin turn things in Year 1? Can Bear Bachmeier take the next step to get BYU over the hump? Can John Mateer get ripped enough to bench-press a Ford Taurus and still sling the rock? Can Texas Tech dress Brendan Sorsby in a fake mustache and pompadour wig and add him as a mysterious new walk-on named something like Rico Fettuccini?
We like the upside to Tier 3, but the door’s cracked open just enough for things to go haywire.
Numbers to know:
Eleven FBS teams have won at least 70% of their games since 2020. Only one hasn’t made the playoff: BYU (57-20, .740)
In its past 13 SEC games, LSU is 5-8 and has averaged less than 21 points per game. Lane Kiffin is 12-2 in that same span against the SEC and his team has scored at least 21 points in 13 of those games.
Oklahoma’s defense stuffed 31.5% of opponent-designed runs at or behind the line of scrimmage last year. Its 63 tackles for loss led the country. Brent Venables’ defense has finished top 12 in the country in TFLs 11 times since 2013 and never finished worse than 23rd.
Last season, Texas A&M had a 47.1% successful play rate on offense vs. FBS opponents, and a 65.1% success rate on defense. The differential of plus-12.32 percentage points was 50% better than that of any other SEC team.
Texas Tech allowed 3.94 yards per play on defense last year, the best rate by any team in the playoff era. It’s just the third team in the playoff era to hold opponents to less than 3 yards per designed run over the course of a full season.
Texas Tech’s Cameron Dickey vs. Kansas last year: 21 carries, 263 yards and two TDs; vs. all other FBS opponents, he averaged 4.4 yards/rush, which would’ve ranked 24th among Big 12 players with at least 75 carries.
USC is 15-15 in its past 30 games against Power 4 and 5 competition.
Opposing QBs averaged just 6.25 air yards per attempt vs. USC’s defense last year, the lowest rate in FBS. Just 65.5% of throws against USC’s defense crossed the line of scrimmage last year — the second-lowest rate in the country.
Alabama Crimson Tide
Michigan Wolverines
Ole Miss Rebels
Utah Utes
Seeing Alabama in Tier 4 is like walking out to your driveway and finding George Clooney living next door. The neighborhood is fine, but shouldn’t they be somewhere nicer?
And yet, there’s no sugarcoating that this is, at best, a B+ version of the program that owned college football for the better part of the 21st century. It’s nowhere near the Mike Shula dark ages, but it’s not all that close to the 2020 juggernaut either.
For most programs, this wouldn’t be an insult, but the hard truth? Alabama is good. Not great. Not elite. Not generational. Good.
Now, perhaps there’s a world where Austin Mack or Keelon Russell wins the starting job and revives the behemoth and the hand-wringing all looks a little silly. But there’s just as likely a chance that Kalen DeBoer is sipping cocktails with Shula in South Beach next fall, enjoying the fruits of an ill-timed contract extension while someone else tries to right the ship.
As for Michigan, Ole Miss and Utah, there’s plenty to like, but there are also three new head coaches. Pete Golding has spent his offseason beefing with Kiffin and Clemson. Morgan Scalley has never been a head coach. In his first few months on the job, Kyle Whittingham already upended Michigan tradition even more than Rich Rodriguez ever did by saying the unthinkable: that he doesn’t loathe Ohio State and everyone associated with it with the burning fire of a thousand suns.
Numbers to know:
Twelve of Alabama’s 13 FBS games last year came against FPI top-40 opponents, most by any team. The Tide went 8-4 in those games, outscoring their opponents by a combined total of two points. In Nick Saban’s final five years, the Tide were 34-8 vs. FPI top-40 teams, outscoring them by an average of 13.2 points per game.
Alabama averaged 3.85 yards per designed run last season, 129th out of 136 FBS teams. The Tide were one of just four teams to rank in the bottom 30 of FBS in both yards before and after contact per designed run. The other three? Kent State, UMass and Charlotte.
Over the past two years, Michigan has 23 passing touchdowns and 23 interceptions. In the four prior seasons, Michigan had just 24 total interceptions to go with 78 passing TDs.
Michigan was 19th nationally in rushing EPA per game last year and 81st in passing EPA. Utah has lost 12 straight games to ranked opponents by an average of 13 points per game dating back to 2022.
Last year, Utah led the Big 12 (and was fifth in the Power 4) with a 50.8% offensive success rate. A year earlier, Utah’s success rate was 38.2%, 15th in the Big 12. The 33-percentage-point year-over-year increase was the best among Power 4 schools.
Kewan Lacy played 835 offensive snaps last year — 149 more than any other Power 4 running back. He’s just the third back with more than 800 in a season in the past five years. The only SEC player with more rushing attempts in a season than Lacy (306) in the playoff era was Derrick Henry (395 in 2015).
Iowa Hawkeyes
Louisville Cardinals
Penn State Nittany Lions
SMU Mustangs
Tennessee Volunteers
Washington Huskies
How will a new-look Penn State do in 2026? Matthew O’Haren-Imagn ImagesAbout 20 years ago, the great Bobby Bowden described Mark Richt’s career at Georgia as a guy who’s always on the green, but keeps rimming out putts. Eventually, Bowden surmised, one of those putts has to drop.Well, Richt won 171 games and rarely missed a fairway, but let’s just say his short game never materialized.And that brings us to the teams in Tier 5, our close-but-no-cigar group.SMU has played 17 conference games as a member of the ACC and had a chance to win on the final play of every one of them.Iowa has more wins in the playoff era (104) than any Power 4 team that hasn’t made the playoff.Louisville has lost eight games in the past two years; seven were by one score.Penn State did the college football equivalent of throwing James Franklin into a volcano to appease the angry gods after a run of so many near misses that the trend could only be explained by nefarious mystical forces.Maybe 2026 is the year a few putts start to fall. Or, maybe the season ends with Rhett Lashlee hacking a ball out of the rough and into a sand trap then hurling Peruna into the drink in frustration.Numbers to know:Washington averaged 45 points per game in nine wins last year and 9.3 points in four losses.Only three teams held a lead in the second half of every game last year: Indiana, Ole Miss and … SMU.Penn State has lost nine games in the past two years; eight came by a touchdown or less.Iowa has just 8,843 career snaps of experience on offense, the fewest of any Power 4 team.Iowa’s four losses last year came by a combined 15 points. The Hawkeyes were one of five teams that didn’t lose a game by more than seven points last season.Louisville’s Isaac Brown led the nation in yards per carry last year (8.75), more than a full yard better than No. 2. Third on the list? Brown’s backup, Keyjuan Brown (7.33).
Tennessee had three losses by a touchdown or less to teams that won nine or more games.
Tennessee’s 69 rushing touchdowns over the past two years are the most in the SEC in that span.
No team had a higher percentage of its passing yards come off play-action throws last year than Tennessee (59.8%).
Clemson Tigers
Illinois Fighting Illini
Missouri Tigers
TCU Horned Frogs
Virginia Tech Hokies
All five of the teams in Tier 6 rank between No. 20 and No 35 in Connelly’s preseason SP+, which means they’re good enough to be taken seriously and flawed enough not to be a serious playoff contender.
This seems like exactly the spot Swinney wants to be in. It’s a perfect starting point for an “I told you so” season.
Of course, to buy into that narrative, you’d need to get on board with Christopher Vizzina — or, perhaps, true freshman Tait Reynolds — at quarterback. Just as you’d have to get excited for Harvard transfer Jaden Craig at TCU or Ole Miss castoff Austin Simmons at Missouri or former East Carolina QB Katin Houser at Illinois or the Penn State reunion project at Virginia Tech to buy into any playoff narrative for those teams.
Doubting is easy for Tier 6. But there’s a good chance that, by year’s end, we’ll look back and realize that Vizzina — or one of those others — wasn’t such a crap shoot after all.
Numbers to know:
On drives that started on its side of the field vs. FBS opponents, Virginia Tech’s defense allowed 2.8 points per drive last year — the worst rate in the ACC and 128th nationally.
Missouri’s defense has the fewest career snaps played of any Power 4 unit (8,320).
Illinois’ Matthew Bailey has 103 solo tackles over the past two years. That’s the second most by any returning defender in 2026 (Boston College’s KP Price has 104).
TCU running back Jeremy Payne in his past five games — all vs. winning teams (including three vs. ranked opponents): 602 total yards, 476 rushing yards, four touchdowns, 6.43 yards per rush.
From 2011 through 2021, Clemson was 32-7 (with a minus-3 turnover margin) in one-possession games. From 2022 through last season, Clemson was 9-8 (with a minus-3 turnover margin) in such games.
Auburn Tigers
Cal Golden Bears
Kansas State Wildcats
NC State Wolfpack
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Pittsburgh Panthers
Virginia Cavaliers
A lot has to go right for a team to make a playoff run. Yes, the team needs talent and has to play well. But other things such as schedule, health, close-game luck, turnover margin and starting field position — things that are largely out of a team’s direct control — play a big role, too.
Luck is impossible to predict, but the teams in Tier 7 either have some built-in advantages and are due for a few breaks entering the 2026 season.
For example, Virginia benefited from one of the easiest schedules in the Power 4 last year and rode that slate to an 11-win campaign. And, at least according to ESPN’s metrics, the Hoos have nearly as easy a path this year, checking in at No. 65 overall and 16th out of 17 in the ACC.
Auburn, meanwhile, was 0-6 in one-possession games last year. Now, it has a new head coach in Alex Golesh, who’s running the Cignetti playbook by bringing a host of his former USF players with him, including QB Byrum Brown. They’ll pair with one of last year’s better defensive units that returns much of that talent and coordinator DJ Durkin.
Or take Kansas State. The Wildcats started 2-4 last year, but those four losses came by a total of 13 points. Flip one play in each game and K State could’ve entered its Nov. 1 showdown with Texas Tech at 8-0.
Luck has to shift eventually.
Except maybe at NC State. Dave Doeren definitely built his house on an ancient burial ground and filled it with broken mirrors before walking to work under about 100 ladders.
Numbers to know:
Virginia will be the most experienced team in the country to open the 2026 season, with 48,313 career FBS and FCS snaps on its roster. Only five other FBS schools crack 40,000.
Last season, NC State threw for 3,194 yards and 26 touchdowns and ran for 1,905 yards and 27 touchdowns. It’s the first time in program history that NC State hit those marks in the same season.
Only Clemson has averaged more sacks per game than Pitt (3.1) since Pat Narduzzi took over as head coach in 2015.
In the playoff era, only one Big 12 QB (min. 300 dropbacks) has posted consecutive seasons completing less than 60% of their pass attempts: Kansas State’s Avery Johnson.
Cal has lost 21 one-possession games since 2020, the fourth most in FBS.
Last year, 78.9% of opponent drives that entered the red zone vs. Nebraska ended in touchdowns, the worst rate in FBS and the worst by any Big Ten defense since at least 2012. In Matt Rhule’s first two years in Lincoln, Nebraska’s red zone touchdown rate was just 49.3% (seventh best in Power 4/5).
Arizona Wildcats
Houston Cougars
Minnesota Golden Gophers
Vanderbilt Commodores
Regression used to take time. These days, however, it can happen quickly. One day, you’re riding high, on top of the college football world. The next day, you’re sitting alone in a dark room, staring into the middle distance, mumbling about Mike Norvell’s choice of transfer QBs.
Since 2021, 22 teams have had a six-win decline year-over-year — or about six per year. And sometimes, the difference is little more than luck. The ball bounces the right way one year, the wrong way the next.
Five of Minnesota’s FBS wins came by 10 points or fewer, for example, while four of its five losses came by 13 points or more. For the year, Minnesota’s points margin was plus-1, low for an eight-win team. But worse, its points off turnovers margin was plus-24. Teams with a nonturnover points margin similar to Minnesota’s profiled in the four-to-five-win range.
Or how about Houston? The Cougars were 6-1 in one-possession games last year, 4-1 in games decided by a field goal or less and won five games after being tied or behind in the fourth quarter. And all of that came while having the easiest strength of schedule in the Big 12.
These are the types of metrics that tend to swing from year to year — turning nine or 10 wins into a lost season in the blink of an eye.
Numbers to know:
In 2024, Arizona had a points-off-turnovers margin of minus-50. In 2025, its margin was plus-88. That 138-point swing was the largest year-over-year improvement in FBS.
Arizona’s average starting field position margin was plus-7.3 yards, but on drives that began with a kickoff or a punt, the margin was just 1.6 yards — the biggest difference of any FBS team.
Minnesota has gone seven straight years without a negative turnover differential, the longest active streak among Power 4 programs. In the playoff era, only three others have had longer streaks.
Drake Lindsey’s 5.46 yards-per-dropback last year ranked 118th out of 134 qualified QBs. The 16 QBs worse were a combined 35-106 as starters. The four Power 4 QBs worse all were benched at some point and transferred at year’s end.
Houston had the highest positive penalty margin in the country last year, committing 38 fewer penalties than its opposition.
Houston has 10 wins by a field goal or less over the past four seasons, most in the country.
Diego Pavia had 49 career FBS starts by the end of last season. No quarterback on Vandy’s roster to open 2026 has started one game.
Vandy has the second-lowest percentage of returning offensive production in the SEC and is 116th nationally.
Boise State Broncos
James Madison Dukes
Navy Midshipmen
North Dakota State Bison
San Diego State Aztecs
Toledo Rockets
South Florida Bulls
UNLV Rebels
UTSA Roadrunners
How hard is life in the Group of 6 these days?
Go through last year’s All-Conference teams in the American, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West and Sun Belt and you’ll find 76 players with remaining eligibility. Just 23 of them — 30% — returned to the same school.
It’s hard to argue that, outside of the top programs, the Group of 6 is anything more than a developmental level for guys who’ll bolt for the Power 4 — and significant money — after any success at their current home.
That doesn’t mean that there aren’t exceptions with aspirations still high enough to warrant playoff talk, and the teams in Tier 9 are both invested at something beyond a typical Group of 6 level and have a real chance at making the College Football Playoff.
And yes, the four teams outside a power conference to make the playoff in its history have lost, on average, by three touchdowns. It’s not that it can’t happen; it’s just that the path to do it gets a little harder every year.
Numbers to know:
USF lost coach Alex Golesh and QB Byrum Brown, but the new regime can dip its toes into the pool pretty gently. The Bulls have the No. 127 schedule strength in the country, according to ESPN’s metrics, 60 spots easier than a year ago.
Boise State had a missed or broken tackle on 76.5% of its tackle attempts last year, the second-worst rate in the country.
Opposing QBs threw 52 passes at least 20 yards downfield against San Diego State’s defense last year, but completed just eight. The Aztecs surrendered an average of 4.96 yards on those 52 attempts, by far the best rate in the country.
Toledo had the highest negative penalty margin, committing 47 more than its opponents.
Toledo was 0-4 in one-possession games last season. The Rockets’ five losses last year were by an average of eight points. Their seven FBS wins came by an average of 30.
The past six teams to make the leap from FCS to FBS — all since 2021 — are a combined 108-73, including a .646 winning percentage against fellow Group of 6 opponents. All have made a bowl game within their first two years.
Navy ranks 134th out of 138 FBS teams in career snaps played by current members of the roster.
Florida Gators
Florida State Seminoles
Oklahoma State Cowboys
South Carolina Gamecocks
Syracuse Orange
When a program has dug itself into a deep hole, Step 1 in fixing the problem is to stop digging.
Credit to Oklahoma State and Florida. They laid down their shoves after woeful 2025 campaigns and started climbing out with new head coaches. Eric Morris has rebuilt the Cowboys’ roster and seeded it with an influx of talent from his last school, North Texas. John Sumrall has talked the talk this offseason, winning over a beleaguered Florida fan base that has seen a revolving door of once-successful coaches hit rock bottom in Gainesville.
At Florida State and South Carolina, the stories are a bit more complicated.
Believe it or not, both schools were ranked in the AP top 10 for at least a week last season, but neither made a bowl game.
South Carolina went 4-8, but was close enough often enough that Shane Beamer doubled down after the season, bringing back LaNorris Sellers, Nyck Harbor and Dylan Stewart.
Florida State brought back Mike Norvell, too, after a second straight down year in Tallahassee. Few Seminoles fans seem to think he can right the ship, but it’s also worth noting that, despite a 5-7 record, FSU made some huge strides from a disastrous 2024 season.
And then there’s Syracuse, a team that won 10 games in Fran Brown’s first year, knocked off Clemson in Death Valley last September, then completely fell apart once QB Steve Angeli was lost for the year because of an Achilles injury, and Brown “asked God, please don’t allow us to win another game” so his team could learn some necessary lessons. His prayer was answered.
Now, all of Tier 10 is praying for far different results in 2026. Odds are, at least one will be rejoicing when the dust settles.
Numbers to know:
South Carolina opens the season with 25,991 career offensive snaps among its roster, the most in the country. The Gamecocks return 76% of last year’s offensive production.
Florida State improved its offensive yards per play vs. FBS opponents by 52.6% in 2025, the largest year-over-year change by a power conference team in the playoff era.
Syracuse’s defense allowed a successful play on first down 50.7% of the time — the worst rate in the Power 4 last year and the only unit to allow successful plays more than half the time.
Florida is 29-37 since Marco Wilson threw a shoe against LSU in 2020. That’s half a game worse than Rutgers over that same span.
Thirty-nine teams have won a game against Big 12 competition since the last time Oklahoma State did.
Arizona State Sun Devils
Baylor Bears
Cincinnati Bearcats
Duke Blue Devils
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Kansas Jayhawks
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
ESPN’s FPI projects every team in this tier to win between 5.8 and 6.4 games this year. Duke, Arizona State and Kansas are projected at exactly six wins. They each have between a 55% and 65% chance of winning at least six. If this were still 2025, the kids would be saying these teams were all in the “six-seven” range, but thankfully, we’re past all that.
The other thing these teams have in common: replacing a veteran QB. Sorsby, Darian Mensah, Sam Leavitt and Haynes King are all gone. Even Jalon Daniels, who, as best we can recall, had been Kansas’ Week 1 QB since Mark Mangino was coaching, is gone.
Odds are at least one of these teams will catch fire with a new quarterback. Perhaps Alberto Mendoza follows in his brother’s footsteps, or Gio Lopez takes off after being reunited with his former OC, or Manny Diaz is granted three wishes by a benevolent genie he discovers by rubbing an old turnover chain, and the Blue Devils end up with an adequate Mensah replacement after all.
And then there’s Arizona State, where last year Kenny Dillingham took the flaming wreckage of Jeff Sims’ career and turned him into a serviceable player, posting the best total QBR of his six seasons in college. There might be nothing Dillingham can’t do.
Numbers to know:
Duke’s defense allowed 5.86 yards per dropback when pressuring the opposing QB last season — the fifth-worst rate in FBS.
Baylor had 14 fumbles last year and lost 12. Its opponents fumbled eight times but recovered six. The Bears’ 18.2% fumble recovery rate was the worst in the FBS.
Nearly 63% of Georgia Tech’s receiving yards came after the catch last season — easily the highest rate in the ACC and trailing only Georgia and Kentucky among Power 4 schools.
Cincinnati under Scott Satterfield:
Aug-Oct: 14-10
Nov-Dec: 1-11
Kansas hasn’t had a player with more than six receiving touchdowns since 2019. Last year, 61 FBS players had seven or more receiving touchdowns.
Wake Forest’s defense inherited 26 drives that began on the wrong side of midfield last year, tied for the most among Power 4 schools. The Deacons’ D still allowed the 16th-best TD rate in the FBS last season.
Wake Forest’s defense allowed explosive plays just 8.3% of the time last year — the best rate in the ACC and 10th in the FBS. Every P4 team ahead of Wake Forest finished in the top 25. In the playoff era, only 2021 Clemson and 2022 Syracuse had better rates in the ACC.
QB comparison:
QB A: 62.7 Total QBR, 15 touchdowns, 10 turnovers, 6.37 yards per dropback
QB B: 63.2 Total QBR, 17 touchdowns, 12 turnovers, 6.22 yards per dropback
QB A is Sims, who started six games for Arizona State last year. QB B is Cutter Boley, Arizona State’s projected starter for 2026 after transferring from Kentucky.
Maryland Terrapins
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Northwestern Wildcats
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
It has not been a great few years for the Tier 12 teams, which are a combined 37-82 against Power 4 competition over the past three seasons.
On the other hand, there’s some real optimism here, too.
Maryland has a potential breakout star at QB in Malik Washington, who got his feet wet last year and impressed.
Northwestern brought in Chip Kelly to run the offense, injecting some life into a unit that ranked just behind “paint drying” on the excitement scale.
Antwan Raymond is a nice centerpiece for Rutgers, a program that has made strides each year under Greg Schiano.
And then there’s Mississippi State and second-year QB Kamario Taylor, who has speed, size, talent and some obvious confidence. At SEC media days, Taylor described himself as “a human highlight reel.”
Numbers to know:
No Power 4 team ran less often in non-garbage time snaps last season than Maryland.
Maryland scored touchdowns on just 37.8% of its red zone drives, the worst rate in FBS.
Against Power 4 opponents, Rutgers defense, when pressuring the opposing QB, still allowed 7.9 yards per dropback, with six touchdowns, no interceptions and recorded a sack just 8.9% of the time, the worst rate among Power 4 teams.
Last year, Preston Stone completed 60% of his passes with 17 pass TDs — most in a season by a Northwestern QB since 2018 (C. Thorson, also 17). No NU QB has completed 60% of his passes and thrown 20 TDs since 2005 (Brett Basanez). Overall, 542 different FBS QBs (842 times) have done that since.
Mississippi State corner Kelley Jones was targeted 40 times last year and surrendered just seven catches. The 17.5% completion rate was best in the Power 4. He ranked second in opponent QBR (4.4), seventh in yards per target (3.8) and third in contested target rate (70%).
Arkansas Razorbacks
Kentucky Wildcats
UCF Knights
UCLA Bruins
West Virginia Mountaineers
Wisconsin Badgers
Another aspect of Indiana’s rise is that it’s proof that a supposed basketball school can be great at football, too.
That should offer a little hope for UCLA, Arkansas and Kentucky, among others. Offering more hope, each has a new head coach for 2026.
Bob Chesney arrives at UCLA with plenty of swag after leading JMU to the playoff in 2025. Ryan Silverfield, apparently, has no aura, but he has big plans for a Hogs program buried under an avalanche of close losses. And Kentucky hired an offensive guru in Will Stein to jump-start a unit that hasn’t shown any fireworks in years.
Then there’s Wisconsin. Luke Fickell’s attempts to reimagine the Badgers’ image went over about as well with Wisconsinites as if he had revealed that he’s lactose intolerant, and he probably needs a hot start to 2026 just to save his job there.
Numbers to know:
Arkansas is 4-15 in games decided by a field goal or less since 2020 — the most losses in the country.
UCLA’s defense recorded just 191 pressures over the past two seasons, easily the fewest in the Power 4. Ten other Power 4 programs have recorded twice that many over the same span.
Since 2022, Kentucky has posted a Total QBR of 54.2, 64th among Power 4/5 teams. In that same span, Will Stein’s Oregon QBs posted a Total QBR of 85.8, second only to Ohio State.
Wisconsin QBs vs. zone coverage last year: 21.3 QBR, 55% completions, zero TDs, seven interceptions, 5.9 yards per attempt.
UCF averaged 20.4 points per game vs. FBS opponents last year. That’s a touchdown per game (7.6 ppg) less than any other UCF season since 2015, when the Knights finished 0-12.
Army Black Knights
Buffalo Bulls
East Carolina Pirates
Fresno State Bulldogs
Memphis Tigers
Miami (OH) RedHawks
New Mexico Lobos
Ohio Bobcats
Old Dominion Monarchs
Texas State Bobcats
Troy Trojans
Tulane Green Wave
UConn Huskies
Washington State Cougars
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Western Michigan Broncos
In the playoff era, 39 teams from Group of 5 have been ranked in the final committee poll. That’s an average of 3.25 per season.
Spin that forward if we get to a 24-team playoff. Theoretically, nothing has changed but the number of teams that make the playoff field, right? How those teams get ranked shouldn’t be any different. And yet, what are the odds that when teams 13-24 matter, the Group of 6 gets all but excommunicated from the rankings?
In any case, here are the other teams outside the power conferences that should be contending for a Top 25 space this season.
Numbers to know:
Army lost five games last year in which it was tied or led in the fourth quarter, most by any FBS team.
Troy finished last season with a minus-921 yardage differential, the worst tally of any team with a winning record.
Last year, Western Kentucky faced the 121st-toughest schedule in the country, by ESPN’s metrics. To open this year, ESPN ranks WKU’s schedule No. 67 nationally. That’s the biggest increase in schedule toughness of any FBS team.
UConn was the only non-power-conference team to hold a lead at some point in every game it played last year.
Old Dominion had the second-best explosive play rate differential in the FBS last season.
Texas State had 19 plays of 50 yards or more from scrimmage last year — four more than any other FBS team.
Washington State went from a plus-44 points-off-turnovers margin in 2024 to minus-52 in 2025, the largest year-over-year negative swing in the FBS.
Buffalo (plus-48 to minus-15) had the sixth-largest negative swing.
Buffalo’s D recorded a sack on 31.1% of pressured dropbacks last season, the top rate in the FBS.
Boston College Eagles
Colorado Buffaloes
Iowa State Cyclones
Michigan State Spartans
North Carolina Tar Heels
Purdue Boilermakers
Stanford Cardinal
There were a lot of years Indiana would’ve been in this tier — the bottom class of the Power 4. But no one is tethered to their station in life. All it takes to reach the top is to pull your program up by its proverbial bootstraps, hire a brilliant coach, bring his best players from his last school, lure a future Heisman QB in the portal and get Mark Cuban to hand over a bunch of cash.
Numbers to know:
Last year, North Carolina went 4-8 against the No. 80 schedule in the country. This year, ESPN has UNC’s schedule ranked 29th. That’s the hardest year-over-year shift in schedule strength of any Power 4 school.
No FBS team had a lower rate of pressuring the QB without blitzing last year than Iowa State (20.6%).
In the 35 years before Matt Campbell was hired as head coach, Iowa State spent just 12 weeks ranked in the AP Top 25. In 10 years under Campbell, the Cyclones were ranked 51 times.
Last year, Boston College was 1-9 vs. Power 4 opponents and was outscored by 13 points per game. This year, BC plays 11 Power 4 opponents.
In 2024, Purdue lost its 11 games vs. Power 4 opponents by an average of 30.8 points per game — the worst margin by any team since 2020. Last year, Purdue lost all 10 of its Power 4 games — but only by an average of 20.5 points per game.
Colorado went from a plus-9.5 points per game margin vs. Power 4 opposition in 2024 to a minus-15.6 margin last year — the biggest year-over-year decline.
In three years under Deion Sanders, Colorado has averaged 3.88 yards-per-designed run, worst in the Power 4. The Buffs’ 2,291 designed run yards in the past three years combined is fewer than 14 other P4s had in 2025.
Air Force Falcons
Florida Atlantic Owls
Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors
Jacksonville State Gamecocks
Liberty Flames
Marshall Thundering Herd
Oregon State Beavers
Tulsa Golden Hurricane
Four years ago, Oregon State won 10 games in a power conference, including a victory over a top-10 Oregon team. A lot has happened since then, but it’s fair to say that George Kliavkoff isn’t welcome in Corvallis any time soon.
Numbers to know:
FAU ran 10 personnel — with no tight end on the field — on 49% of its offensive plays last year. The next-highest rate in the American was Rice, which went without a tight end on just 10.4% of snaps.
Oregon State opponents averaged 8 yards to go on third downs last season, the second-best rate outside the Power 4.
Air Force allowed 7.92 yards per play on first down last year, tied for the worst rate in FBS. Its 47.7% successful play rate on first-down defense ranked 135th.
Four of Jacksonville State’s five losses last year — and seven of its past eight losses dating back to 2024 — came by a touchdown or less.
Colorado State Rams
Georgia Southern Eagles
Kennesaw State Owls
Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
North Texas Mean Green
Utah State Aggies
North Texas went 12-2 last year and had a shot at the College Football Playoff on the final weekend of the season.
Then Eric Morris left, brought his QB and 15 others with him to Oklahoma State and now there’s a good chance that North Texas’ starting 22 this season will not include a player originally signed by the Mean Green. No wonder they’re so mean. We’d be angry too if someone took all of our good players.
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Numbers to know:
Colorado State blitzed on nearly 60% of its defensive snaps vs. dropbacks last year. That was more than double the FBS average and 10 percentage points more than the No. 2 most-frequent blitzer.
Kennesaw State won 10 games last season despite outscoring its opponents by just 17 total points. That’s the fourth-lowest points margin for a 10-game winner of the playoff era.
Louisiana Tech’s seven defensive touchdowns last year were the most by any team since 2016.
Four of Louisiana’s five FBS wins last year came by four points or fewer. The fifth was by nine.
App State Mountaineers
Arkansas State Red Wolves
Central Michigan Chippewas
Delaware Blue Hens
Florida International Panthers
Georgia State Panthers
Nevada Wolf Pack
Rice Owls
San José State Spartans
South Alabama Jaguars
Temple Owls
Wyoming Cowboys
For a prime example of the hollowing out of the Group of 6, look no further than App State. From 2015 to 2021, the Mountaineers were 73-19, the sixth-best winning percentage in FBS.
From Scott Satterfield to Eli Drinkwitz to Shawn Clark, the program won by finding diamonds in the rough, developing them over years and playing tougher, smarter football than many of their bigger-budget counterparts. It led to some utterly seismic moments, from the win in the Big House in 2007 to knocking off Texas A&M in College Station in 2022.
There was a formula for winning on the mountain, and App State had done it for generations. Then came the portal and NIL and revenue sharing, and the whole thing fell apart. App State is 19-19 over the past three seasons, and the Mountaineers have lost 10 of their past 11 against teams that finished the year with a winning record, including eight by double digits. The lone win came in Week 13 in 2024 against JMU.
Maybe there’s a new formula that can help reinvigorate a program that had long been the standard for small-school football. But it won’t be the same, and it probably won’t be sustainable.
Numbers to know:
Rice had an 8.3% explosive-play rate on offense last season, the fifth-worst rate in the FBS. Georgia State had the 68th-toughest schedule in the country last year, according to ESPN. To open this year, the Panthers’ schedule ranks 128th. That’s tied with USF for the biggest year-over-year shift toward an easier schedule in the FBS.
Delaware receivers hauled in 63 contested catches last season, five more than any other FBS team.
Wyoming scored 24 total points in November last year.
No team had a higher percentage of its drives end with a turnover last year than Nevada (19.1%).
Temple finished last year with the eighth-best turnover margin in the country and had the second-biggest year-over-year improvement in points-off-turnovers margin. The Owls still finished 5-7, with five of those losses coming by 21 or more.
Georgia Southern was one of just three teams (Maryland, Temple) to be outscored on the year (minus-57 points) despite a turnover margin of plus-6 or better. It’s the largest negative scoring margin by any team plus-6 or better in turnover margin since Colorado in 2023.
No bowl-eligible team spent more time trailing last year than Arkansas State (32:42 per game).
Bowling Green Falcons
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
Eastern Michigan Eagles
Missouri State Bears
New Mexico State Aggies
Southern Miss Golden Eagles
UAB Blazers
Someone in Tier 19 is destined for the 68 Ventures Bowl, and frankly, there are a lot worse ways you could spend the day after Christmas.
Numbers to know:
Missouri State’s average third-down conversion distance needed last year was 9.1 yards — half a yard more than any other team in the country. The Bears still converted 36.3% of their third-down tries, good for 101st nationally.
The only team in the country not to allow a touchdown pass on a throw of at least 20 yards downfield last year? Eastern Michigan.
Southern Miss had the third-largest year-over-year positive shift in points-off-turnovers margin, finished with the fourth-best turnover margin in the country and still lost its last four games to finish 7-6. The Eagles now have the lowest percentage of returning production in the country.
No team has more career defensive snaps on its roster to open this season than UAB (27,366).
Twenty-seven of UAB’s defensive drives last year (nearly a quarter of them) began on the wrong side of midfield. Just shy of 70% resulted in points, including a 56% touchdown rate allowed.
Akron Zips
Ball State Cardinals
Charlotte 49ers
Kent State Golden Flashes
UL Monroe Warhawks
Massachusetts Minutemen
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
Northern Illinois Huskies
Sacramento State Hornets
Sam Houston Bearkats
UTEP Miners
In Tier 1, we began by discussing the hope that Indiana’s rise has provided for the rest of the perennially downtrodden in college football, so let’s close this way: There is no hope for UMass. Sorry, guys.
Numbers to know:
No roster has less experience this season in terms of career FBS and FCS snaps than Northern Illinois (11,935, less than a quarter of what FBS leader Virginia has).
UTEP went for it on fourth down shy of the 50-yard line 23 times last season — most in FBS.
Ball State had a first-down successful play rate of 29.4% vs. FBS opponents last year, the worst rate in the country — and the worst by any FBS team in a full season since 2016.
Charlotte’s average in-game win percentage last year was 23.5%, worst in FBS.
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