Deep sleepers in Fantasy Football generally fall into two categories. The first are guys that we simply think are being undervalued and should be drafted higher based on our own ranking or projection. The second are guys who could be massive wins at their ADP if things go right. In other words, they aren’t necessarily projected to be great values, but it isn’t hard to tweak the projections to show how they could be. In this article, I plan on giving you a taste of each, based on current average draft position at CBS. All of these players either have a current ADO outside of the top 150, or they don’t have an ADP at all.
Deep Sleepers Based on Current Projections
Tyler Shough, QB, Saints
ADP: 153
I have Shough projected for 4,296 passing yards, 296 rushing yards, and 28 total touchdowns. That makes him QB14 in six-point per pass touchdown leagues. He’s currently being drafted as QB21 in Round 13. Those yardage projections are very close to his 17-game pace in his nine starts last year, but I am projecting much more success getting into the end zone. That is a pretty common improvement for a second-year starter and will be much easier to attain in the second half of the season if Jordyn Tyson gets healthy. In fact, Shough probably qualifies for both categories of deep sleepers. I project him much better than his ADP and also, if we get a second half with a healthy Olave and Tyson, he could be much better than my projection.
Jalen Coker, WR Panthers
ADP: 154
If there is one guy you draft from this article, based on my projections, it should be Coker. He projects as my WR31 and I rank him worthy of a Round 9 pick. He’s being drafted in Round 13. Even with that knowledge, I would have zero problem with you drafting him in Round 10 or 11 to make sure you get him. I project Coker for 65 catches for 841 and five touchdowns. The Panthers plan on using both Coker and Tetairoa McMillain in the slot more, which should help Coker’s target per route run and he’s already been incredibly efficient as a receiver, averaging 9.8 yards per target and posting a 5.6% TD rate in his first two years.
Malik Willis, QB, Dolphins
ADP: 162
Willis is being drafted as QB23 and he’s actually fallen recently. While the Dolphins do look like they could be one of the worst offenses in the NFL, Willis’ rushing upside means it is highly unlikely he finishes that low. I have him projected for 3,618 passing yards, 642 rushing yards, and 26 total touchdowns. He should be amongst the leaders at the quarterback position in rushing production and the fact that Chris Bell (more on him later) is healthy before the start of the season gives Willis more passing upside than I am currently projecting. He’s an excellent upside QB2 if you draft someone like Jared Goff as your starter.
Dalton Schultz, TE, Texans
ADP: 173
Schultz is the perfect pick if you wait too long at tight end or draft one of the many injury risks in the early rounds. I currently project him for 76 catches for 719 yards and four touchdowns, which makes him TE13, but only three points behind TE9. Schultz had more than 100 targets for the Texans last year and I project him to do that again and once again be the number two option for C.J. Stroud. If he has better touchdown luck, he could be a top eight tight end.
Tre Tucker, WR, Raiders
ADP: 186
I get it, no one wants to draft a receiver on the Raiders. But the team has made it pretty clear that Tre Tucker has established himself as the WR1 on the team and they don’t seem particularly pleased with anyone else. I have only projected Tucker for 96 targets and he still projects for a stat line that should have him drafted 50 picks earlier than he is being drafted. For what it’s worth, Klint Kubiak’s WR1 has averaged 8.3 targets per game in Kubiak’s three seasons as an offensive coordinator. Those were better players, and the teams didn’t have Brock Bowers, but there is still a lot of room between Tucker’s projection of 59-728-4 and his upside. At the very least, he’s a nice bye week replacement that can score 10 Fantasy points on any given play.
Deep Sleepers Based on Reasonable What Ifs
Marshawn Lloyd, RB Packers
ADP: 158
What if Josh Jacobs is unavailable for an extended stretch?
Lloyd, who has struggled with injuries early in his career, would be a big winner. He has had an outstanding camp and appears to be the clear backup to Jacobs, who has been dealing with a groin injury and has off-field concerns. If Jacobs was absent, Lloyd wouldn’t project for the top 10 numbers that Jacobs does, but he would be an easy top 20 running back in the projections, with a stat line similar to that of Kyren Williams and D’Andre Swift. Think 250 touches, 1,300 total yards, and seven to ten touchdowns.
Jonah Coleman, RB, Broncos
ADP: 161
What if J.K. Dobbins breaks his pinky promise?
I would love nothing more than seeing Dobbins stay healthy this year. He’s an awesome running back and we’ve been robbed of just how great he could have been. But he also hasn’t played more than 10 games in a season since 2020. My working assumption if Dobbins misses time is that RJ Harvey’s role will remain mostly the same and Coleman will see 15 touches per game in Dobbins’ role. This is one of the best offensive lines in football and Coleman would project for a line similar to Bucky Irving.
Keaton Mitchell, RB, Chargers
ADP: 163
What if Keaton Mitchell is rookie De’Von Achane and Omarion Hampton is Raheem Mostert?
This may not seem reasonable. It may not be reasonable. But Mike McDaniel loves Mitchell and Mitchell’s efficiency has been insane when he’s been on the field. He has averaged 6.8 yards per carry and 7.7 yards per target on very low volume. In Achane’s rookie year, he averaged nine carries and three targets per game. That could elevate Mitchell into must-start territory and still give Hampton a chance to be a lead back and high-end RB2.
Keenan Allen, WR, Colts
ADP: 180
What if Keenan Allen keeps earning targets?
Maybe Allen’s late Round 15 ADP is a result of the fact that he was being drafted so late earlier this offseason. If not, he’s a screaming value in deeper leagues if he keeps earning targets like he has. Each of the past two seasons, he has at least 120 targets playing alongside Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston, DJ Moore, and Rome Odunze. He has really hurt their value, and could do it again, but if you’re in a deeper league, don’t sleep on the fact that Allen can still be a PPR flex.
Chris Bell, WR, Dolphins
ADP: NA
What if Chris Bell really is healthy?
In my opinion, if he’s really healthy, he is the best wide receiver on the Dolphins. This would be an enormous boost for Malik Willis’ chances as a passer and Bell would be a great pick in the final round of your draft. Before he got hurt last year, he was averaging 87 receiving yards per game and possesses a combination of size and speed that the Dolphins simply do not have on the roster. He could legitimately be the second-best rookie receiver in 2026 if he is fully recovered from his torn ACL.
