The predictability of the FedEx Cup Playoffs has varied over the last few years, with the 2026 edition certainly leaning toward the more unpredictable side. With the PGA Tour last year announcing a change to the Tour Championship format that allowed all 30 golfers in the postseason finale to start at a level playing field, simply advancing to East Lake Golf Club will open the door for the field to win the top prize at the season’s conclusion.Tommy Fleetwood was able to soar to the top of the leaderboard and win the Tour Championship for his first PGA Tour victory. Will someone similarly break out in a few weeks, or should the expectation be someone like Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Cameron Young or Matt Fitzpatrick capping their tremendous campaigns with a huge payday? With variance introduced in the Tour Championship and no starting strokes awarded to players, there may be some outsiders who present an inside chance at raising the silver cup. As few as two or as many as 12 rounds of golf separate players from their offseasons as the top 70 on the PGA Tour play in the St. Jude Championship before the field is trimmed to 50 players at the BMW Championship and finally 30 for the Tour Championship. Let’s take a first look at some predictions and picks from our CBS Sports experts as we attempt to project who will win — and what will go down — in this newest iteration of the postseason.
2026 FedEx Cup Playoffs picks, expert predictionsOdds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Patrick McDonald, golf writer
Pick to win FedEx Cup — Scottie Scheffler (7/2): It is not a sexy pick. Scheffler has not won since the first start of the season, but the dam will break, and the bet is it will in Memphis and flow through Atlanta. Scheffler has been flat-out sensational all season with five runner-up finishes and three other top-five finishes since the start of the major championship season. He’s doing too many things too well to go through 2026 with only one win, and if he only gets one more, it will come at East Lake (although he’ll get more than just one).
Sleeper to win FedEx Cup — Justin Thomas (70-1): Always tough to pinpoint a sleeper as 18 of the top 30 are already confirmed for the Tour Championship. With roughly five or so spots up for grabs with tournaments remaining, Thomas has the look of someone capable of moving from outside the top 30 to onto the tee sheet at East Lake. If he gets there, anything goes as his history stacks up to the likes of McIlroy’s and Schauffele, who everyone likes to discuss this time of year.
Most likely to disappoint — Wyndham Clark (No. 4): He might still be celebrating the U.S. Open, and honestly, fair play. The two-time U.S. Open winner has stumbled over the last month, revealing the volatility of his game. Clark’s long game hasn’t matched that from June, but more concerning may be his short game taking a step back as well.
Most on the line — Keith Mitchell (No. 49): Going off the beaten path here. Only once a winner on tour and approaching 35 years of age, Mitchell enters the postseason inside the magic number to qualify for the signature events next season. With the changes coming on the PGA Tour, he will experience a substantial stress lifted off his shoulders if he is to secure his place in those fields, especially as someone ranked No. 74 in the Official World Golf Rankings. Mitchell has not qualified for the BMW Championship since 2022 and has never played in the Tour Championship. There’s no time like the present.
Robby Kalland, golf writer
Pick to win FedEx Cup — Sam Burns (33/2): He has been close in so many big events this season, and perhaps this year can follow a similar script to last, where Tommy Fleetwood finally broke through after some agonizing close calls. Burns has been out of sight, out of mind since his 3rd place finish at The Open, but he has had nothing but good vibes on the golf course this summer and should feel good once he gets to East Lake after a T7 finish last year.
Sleeper to win FedEx Cup — Tom Kim (49-1): The first order of business for being a sleeper to win the FedEx Cup is making it to East Lake. Kim is currently inside the top 30, giving him an inside track to the Tour Championship, and he’s played some fantastic golf over the past two months. Bombing it isn’t a requirement at East Lake, and Kim has proven that when distance isn’t a top priority, he can hang around just about anywhere.
Most likely to disappoint — Wyndham Clark (No. 4): Clark was out of his mind for five weeks this summer, winning twice (including his second U.S. Open). He’s missed his last two cuts, though, and perhaps the magic has run out with Clark going back into hibernation before his next heater. Of the guys in the top 12 in the FedEx Cup standings, he’s the one who would be least surprising to see outside the top 20 in all three playoff events.
Most on the line — Jordan Spieth (No. 54): Just like last year, Spieth comes into the playoffs on the bubble and needs to produce some great golf in Memphis to secure his spot in the top 50. Last year, he was 48th and fell out with a T38 finish. This year, he needs at least a 23rd or better to have a mathematical chance, but in reality, it’ll take much more. It’s not only about making it to the BMW Championship for Spieth, but the top 50 get locked into all of next year’s signature events. He’s yet to have a top 10 finish this season, and if there were ever a time to produce one, it’s here at the start of the playoffs to secure his schedule for 2027.
