Fit often matters as much as talent to success in the NFL. That’s especially true for rookies, as it’s the shortest offseason they’ll ever have at any level of football to get up to speed. Landing in a spot that gives them a clear path to the field and plays to their strengths is a big factor in their immediate impact.
The All-Rookie team isn’t a formal award like All-Pros or Pro Bowlers. The PFWA has done its own since 1974, but its positional designations are incredibly dated, with two running backs and three linebackers included.
Let’s use modern positional designations and predict who will have the most productive seasons among this year’s rookie class based on their talent, NFL readiness and opportunity to produce.
QB: Fernando Mendoza (Raiders)
This is the easiest one on the entire list. Fernando Mendoza could easily be the only rookie quarterback who starts this season. The 13th overall pick, Ty Simpson, will only play for the Rams if Matthew Stafford goes down, and third-rounders Carson Beck and Drew Allar were third-rounders for a reason. If Mendoza doesn’t start Week 1, he should by Week 5 at the just in, and he’ll have one of the best play-callers in the NFL in Klint Kubiak.
RB: Jeremiyah Love (Cardinals)
It’s either Jeremiyah Love or his former Notre Dame teammate Jadarian Price here. Anyone else would be a long shot in a historically weak running back class with only one other top-100 pick (Kaelon Black), and he backs up Christian McCaffrey. Love lands with coach Mike LaFleur, who, as offensive coordinator for the Jets, had Breece Hall averaging 5.8 yards per carry as a rookie before tearing his ACL midseason.
WR: Carnell Tate (Titans) and KC Concepcion (Browns)
Carnell Tate is an obvious selection. He walks into a spot where he’s the unquestioned No. 1 receiver option for Cam Ward, filling the role the Titans missed dearly last year.
KC Concepcion is a little less obvious, as he doesn’t exactly have a high-volume passing offense to put up big numbers. What he does have, however, is a clear-cut path to targets and an NFL-ready game. Concepcion finished as the No. 1 wide receiver on my draft board because of his ability to separate against man coverage, which should translate immediately in the NFL.
Slot WR: Antonio Williams (Commanders)
Antonio Williams is one of the most experienced slot receivers in the draft class, with nearly 1,000 routes run from that spot in his collegiate career. He’ll fit seamlessly into the Commanders’ offense, which lost leading receiver Deebo Samuel, who operated primarily from the slot. Williams has an obvious path to a hefty target load with Jayden Daniels hopefully healthy all season.
TE: Kenyon Sadiq (Jets)
There wasn’t a clean landing spot for any of the top tight ends this year. None of the nine taken in the top 100 went to a team where they’ll be the unquestioned No. 1 at the position. Kenyon Sadiq, at minimum, will garner schemed targets because of his ability after the catch. He should easily usurp last year’s second-rounder, Mason Taylor, for targets in the Jets’ offense.
OT: Spencer Fano (Browns) and Blake Miller (Lions)
Spencer Fano had the cleanest tape of any offensive lineman in the draft and will be the clear-cut starter at left tackle for the Browns next season.
Blake Miller is the only other tackle in the draft with no roadblocks to a starting role, so he’s the choice here by default. Monroe Freeling, Max Iheanachor and Caleb Lomu all look destined to take redshirt years with the Panthers, Steelers and Patriots, respectively.
OG: Kadyn Proctor (Dolphins) and Vega Ioane (Ravens)
There were three top-15 picks who will start at guard as rookies, meaning Francis Mauigoa is the odd man out here. I believe Olaivavega Ioane’s experience at guard will make his transition easier, while Kadyn Proctor’s biggest weakness — his foot speed — gets mitigated by moving inside.
OC: Keylan Rutledge (Texans)
While Keylan Rutledge technically never played center in 3,019 career snaps in college, this looks like his most likely position based on the contracts Houston gave out this offseason. As the second-ranked true interior offensive lineman on my board, Rutledge playing a new position shouldn’t worry Texans fans much.
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DT: Kayden McDonald (Texans) and Lee Hunter (Panthers)
The common thread here is their work in the run game, where it’s often easier for defensive tackles to transition quickly to the NFL. Kayden McDonald was the best run-defending nose tackle in college football last year, while Lee Hunter has been the best playmaking defensive tackle in college football over the past three seasons.
EDGE: Rueben Bain Jr. (Buccaneers) and David Bailey (Jets)
Rueben Bain Jr. and David Bailey ranked first and second in pressures among all players in college football last season. They both go to great spots with no restrictions to a full workload as rookies. Double-digit sacks aren’t out of the question for either.
LB: Jacob Rodriguez (Dolphins) and Sonny Styles (Commanders)
Anyone who’s watched Jacob Rodriguez knows his game should translate quickly to the NFL. It’s why he racked up award after award for Texas Tech last year.
Sonny Styles may not have the same instincts just yet after only playing linebacker for two seasons, but Dan Quinn’s defense will put his freakish athleticism to good use.
CB: Mansoor Delane (Chiefs) and D’Angelo Ponds (Jets)
Mansoor Delane’s work in the SEC last fall makes him a safe bet to translate quickly to the NFL.
D’Angelo Ponds is a bit bolder, but I believe he went to the perfect landing spot both schematically and for playing time. Brandon Stephens and Nahshon Wright aren’t stopping Aaron Glenn from getting his best man corner on the field quickly.
Nickel: Caleb Downs (Cowboys)
Wherever Caleb Downs lines up, he’s a shoo-in for this team. And in Dallas, it looks like he’ll play around the line of scrimmage. That’s a good thing for the Cowboys run defense, as Downs is exceptional at chopping down ball carriers in the backfield.
S: Dillon Thieneman (Bears) and Emmanuel McNeil-Warren (Browns)
The best true deep safety in the class alongside the best true box safety. Dillon Thieneman had eight interceptions in college and goes to a Dennis Allen-coached defense that led the NFL in interceptions last season with 23.
Emmanuel McNeil-Warren has a murkier path to a starting role with Grant Delpit and Ronnie Hickman entrenched as starters. It wouldn’t surprise me if he ends up in the slot for the Browns, where he could serve as an add-on linebacker in the run game.
