With the release of the NFL schedule coming on Thursday night, we’ve decided to start making preparations by breaking down every team’s strength of schedule for 2026, and well, I have some bad news for Bears fans: Your schedule is tough.
The Bears were one of the biggest surprises in the NFL last year after a 2025 season where they won the NFC North with an 11-6 record. However, it won’t be easy to replicate that success this year and that’s mainly because Chicago will be facing the NFL’s most difficult strength of schedule.
The Bears are one of just two teams — along with the Miami Dolphins — who have a strength of schedule above .540: Chicago sits at .550, which is the toughest in the NFL, while the Dolphins are ranked second at .542.
Why the Bears should be worried
There are two big reasons why the Bears’ schedule is so difficult: Strength of schedule is based on your opponents’ record from last season and every team in the NFC North finished with a winning record last year, which is almost unheard of. It marked just the second time in the Super Bowl era that all four teams in the same division finished with a winning record.
The other thing the Bears have to deal with is the fact that they’ll be playing a first-place schedule this year, which is the part that could end up being the back-breaker for Chicago.
Since the NFL expanded to 17 games in 2021, the team that gets stuck playing the “hardest” first-place schedule has regressed by an average of four games per season. Last year, the team in this spot was the Lions. After going 15-2 in 2024, they had the hardest first-place schedule in 2025 and they dropped to 9-8.
We’re using 2021 as the timeline here, because the addition of the 17th game created a more difficult schedule for the top teams in the NFL. From 2002 to 2020, the schedule was inherently the same for everyone, whether they were playing a “first-place” schedule or a “last-place” schedule. Each team played four games against a team that finished in first place, four games against teams that finished in second, four games against teams that finished in third and four games against teams that finished in last place.
With the addition of the 17th game, a first-place team will now play FIVE first-place teams, which means you’re rarely going to see a division winner with an easy schedule. That being reported, the team with the easiest first-place schedule always seems to thrive, and this year, that team is the Eagles.
Why the Eagles should be in good shape
Of the eight teams playing a “first-place” schedule in 2026, the Eagles have it the easiest, which is notable, because first-place teams have done well in that situation since the NFL added the 17th game.
In the five years since then, the team with the easiest “first-place” schedule has finished with a winning record in all five seasons.
- 2021: The Bills had the “easiest” first-place schedule in 2021 and they finished with a record of 11-6 record.
- 2022: The Cowboys had the easiest first-place schedule in 2022 and they were able to turn that into an 12-5 record.
- 2023: The Jaguars had the easiest first-place schedule in 2023 and they finished 9-8.
- 2024: The Buccaneers got the honor of easiest first-place schedule in 2024 and they rode that to a 9-8 record and an NFC South title.
- 2025: The Bills got the easiest first-place schedule for the second time last season and they went 12-5.
If you’re scoring at home, that’s an average of 10.6 wins per season for the team with the “easiest” first-place schedule, which should put the Eagles in a good spot heading into 2026. Last season, the Eagles became the first team in 21 years to win back-to-back NFC East titles. If they win it again this year, they’ll be the first team to three-peat in the division since 2001-04 when Philly won four NFC East titles in a row.
With the Eagles having the easiest first-place schedule, you might be wondering who has the easiest schedule overall? Well, glad you asked. Let’s get to that now.
Why the Browns might have actually caught a break
If you’re looking for one team that could surprise people in 2026, that could be the Cleveland Browns, who have the easiest strength of schedule in the NFL. Here’s why that matters: The AFC team with the easiest schedule has finished with a winning record in EIGHT STRAIGHT seasons, including last year, when the AFC champion Patriots improved from 4-13 in 2024 to 14-3 in 2025.
Over the past three seasons, the AFC team with the easiest strength of schedule has improved their record by an average of 7.7 wins and all three of those teams had a new head coach going into the season.
- 2023: Texans. After going 3-13-1 in 2022, the Texans had the easiest strength of schedule of any AFC team in 2023 and they ended up being a surprise playoff team at 10-7 during DeMeco Ryans’ first season as Houston’s head coach.
- 2024: Chargers. After going 5-12 in 2023, they had the AFC’s easiest strength of schedule in 2024 and they took advantage of that by going 11-6 and making the playoffs in Jim Harbaugh’s first season on the job.
- 2025: Patriots. After going 4-13 in 2024, the Patriots bounced back in a big way while playing against the AFC’s easiest strength of schedule in 2025. In Mike Vrabel’s first season on the job, the Patriots went 14-3 and ended up making a run all the way to the Super Bowl.
In 2026, the Browns will have a new head coach in Todd Monken and he’ll be looking to replicate the success of those three coaches.
The Browns will also be playing both the AFC South and NFC South this year, which has been a huge advantage for teams. Last year, the Super Bowl champion Seahawks went a combined 7-1 against those two divisions, which is a big reason why Seattle ended up earning the No. 1 overall seed in the NFC.
Last year, the 49ers were in the exact same spot as the Browns: They had the easiest strength of schedule in 2025 and they also got to play both South divisions. After going 6-11 in 2024, the 49ers used their scheduling advantage to go 12-5 in 2025.
Of course, no one is going to mistake the Browns for the 49ers, but getting to play both South divisions seems to help.
The last two times an entire division got matched up with both South divisions, that division produced at least three teams that finished with a winning record.
- 2021: AFC East plays NFC South and AFC South (Three AFC East teams finish with a winning record)
- 2025: NFC West plays NFC South and AFC South (Three NFC West teams finish with a winning record)
This should make the AFC North an interesting division to watch this year. The division could end up producing multiple playoff teams thanks to a schedule rotation that has each team facing both the AFC South and NFC South.
Speaking of the NFC South, it’s also worth nothing that the Saints have the second-easiest strength of schedule, which is something that could set them up to be a possible surprise team in the NFC. In seven of the past nine years, at least one team playing one of the two easiest schedules has made the playoffs, and the two teams in that spot this year are the Browns and Saints.
The one thing about strength of schedule is that there’s no perfect way to measure schedule difficulty before the season kicks off. Thanks to injuries and trades, rosters are changing all the time and they will continue to change throughout the season. That being reported, strength of schedule does give you a good idea of what your favorite team will be facing in the upcoming season.
Here are the 2026 strength of schedule rankings for each team (combined 2025 record of all 17 opponents, combined winning percentage).
|
1.
|
Bears
|
158-129-2
|
.550
|
|
2.
|
Dolphins
|
156-132-1
|
.542
|
|
T-3.
|
Cardinals
|
155-133-1
|
.538
|
|
T-3.
|
Packers
|
155-133-1
|
.538
|
|
5.
|
Chiefs
|
155-134
|
.536
|
|
6.
|
Patriots
|
153-135-1
|
.531
|
|
7.
|
Raiders
|
153-136
|
.529
|
|
8.
|
Bills
|
152-136-1
|
.528
|
|
9.
|
Chargers
|
151-138
|
.522
|
|
10.
|
Panthers
|
150-138-1
|
.521
|
|
11.
|
Vikings
|
149-138-2
|
.519
|
|
12.
|
Jets
|
149-139-1
|
.517
|
|
13.
|
Rams
|
148-139-2
|
.516
|
|
14.
|
Seahawks
|
148-140-1
|
.514
|
|
15.
|
Broncos
|
148-141
|
.512
|
|
16.
|
Commanders
|
144-143-2
|
.502
|
|
17.
|
Giants
|
143-144-2
|
.498
|
|
18.
|
49ers
|
143-145-1
|
.497
|
|
19.
|
Steelers
|
143-146
|
.495
|
|
20.
|
Cowboys |
142-146-1
|
.493
|
|
21.
|
Buccaneers
|
141-146-2
|
.491
|
|
22.
|
Jaguars
|
141-147-1
|
.490
|
|
23.
|
Eagles
|
138-149-2
|
.481
|
|
24.
|
Ravens
|
138-150-1
|
.479
|
|
25.
|
Titans
|
137-151-1
|
.476
|
|
26.
|
Texans
|
136-151-2
|
.474
|
|
27.
|
Lions
|
134-153-2
|
.467
|
|
T-28.
|
Falcons
|
134-154-1
|
.465
|
|
T-28.
|
Colts
|
134-154-1
|
.465
|
|
30.
|
Bengals
|
130-159
|
.450
|
|
31.
|
Saints
|
125-163-1
|
.434
|
|
32.
|
Browns
|
124-165
|
.429
|
If you’re curious about the scheduling formula, every team plays 17 games as follows:
- Home and away against its three division opponents (six games).
- The four teams from another division within its conference on a rotating three-year cycle (four games).
- The four teams from a division in the other conference on a rotating four-year cycle (four games).
- Two intra-conference games based on the prior year’s standings (two games). These games match a first-place team against the first-place teams in the two same-conference divisions that the team is not scheduled to play that season. The second-place, third-place and fourth-place teams in a conference are matched in the same way each year.
- One interconference game based on the prior year’s standings on a rotating four-year cycle (one game). These games match a first-place team from one division against a first-place team in an opposite conference division that the team is not scheduled to play that season. The second-place, third-place and fourth-place teams in each division are matched in the same way each year. The home conference for this game will rotate each season.
Finally, here’s a link to a list of every home and away opponent that each team will play in 2026. The time and dates of each game will be released on Thursday, May 14.
