The week of festivities at the 2026 Open Championship is firmly underway as Royal Birkdale hosts the final major of the season in Southport, England. The same question abounds, though: Who will become Champion Golfer of the Year and raise the Claret Jug at week’s end?With an excellent 156-man field featuring nearly all the best golfers in the world competing, the fourth major championship of the 2026 season should once again be a tremendous ride from Thursday’s first round onward. Royal Birkdale will serve as a particularly difficult test, which should only heighten tensions, particularly given the expected condition of the course over the week.
While The Open field is stacked, the overall favorite, Scottie Scheffler, is not playing his best golf. While he remains the best overall player in the world, it got to the point last week that Rory McIlroy looked poised to overcome Scheffler on an odds board involving both golfers for the first time in years. McIlroy is still second on that list, coming off three tremendous rounds of golf at the Scottish Open, but a rocky Moving Day kept him from hoisting that championship last week.
Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson will each miss all four majors this season, facing starkly different personal circumstances, and Bryson DeChambeau enters The Open facing the potential of missing the cut at all four majors in a given year for the first time in his career. On a more positive note, English golfers like Matt Fitzpatrick, Tommy Fleetwood and Justin Rose will have a ton of local support that could buoy any or all of them into terrific performances.
So, what is going to happen in Southport this week? Let’s take a look at a full set of predictions and picks from our CBS Sports experts as we attempt to project who will win — and what will go down — in the final major championship of the season.
2026 Open expert picks, predictions
Odds via Caesars Sportsbook
Patrick McDonald, golf writer
Winner — Matt Fitzpatrick (18-1): Seems too good to be true, but I am riding with an Englishman who is in top form. Arguably the Player of the Year as it stands with three wins under his belt, Fitzpatrick is flying into this Open with every club in his bag performing properly. He has improved in majors as the season has progressed, earning him a final pairing tee time Saturday at the U.S. Open before falling off the pace. His game is in good order, and so is his mental state; he appears relaxed and ready for the challenge ahead. Fitzpatrick leads the PGA Tour in strokes gained approach and strokes gained around the green. That feels like a nice recipe.
Sleeper – Shane Lowry (66-1): I haven’t heard a single soul mention his name, and that is where I like to live. The Irishman has not flashed brilliance since his collapse at PGA National, though his game appears to be turning a corner with three top-25 finishes in his last seven tournaments. The resurgence stems from a return to Lowry’s DNA: hitting fairways consistently and leaning on his iron play, where he ranks 10th over the last three months. Something in my gut says he will have a good week.
Top 10 lock — Scottie Scheffler: Look, he’s still the best player in the world, and his record in this championship is quite good. Scheffler may be slightly off his high standards, yet the completeness of his game should allow him to thrive on this version of Royal Birkdale that features firm, fiery turf. If his iron play continues as it has for years, he will be on the leaderboard’s first page.
Star who definitely won’t win — Xander Schauffele: This pains me to write. Physically pains me. The hope for Schauffele this season was to return to 2024 form. While he has clocked three top-15 finishes in majors this season, the quality has been off. Schauffele arrives off a missed cut at the Scottish Open and a forgettable start at the Travelers Championship, where he was again unable to put the entirety of his game together. His floor is so high that he will finish top 20, but I don’t see him winning.
Top Englishman — Matt Fitzpatrick (1st): If he is the pick to win, then he is the pick to be the low Englishman. Let me instead shed some light on Justin Rose, who could complete the storybook ending this weekend with a win. He has a great chance to do so as he continues to peak at the precise right time for these tournaments with three top-11 finishes this season. Rose has a pair of runner-up finishes in 2024 and 2018, both at a crispy, dried-out golf course in Carnoustie.
Biggest surprise — An old guy contends: Just don’t tell them that I called them “old.” Give me one of Francesco Molinari, Padraig Harrington, Stewart Cink or Henrik Stenson to at least climb inside the top 20 by week’s end. All in the field due to winning previous Opens, this quartet of older players (1) is playing solid golf and (2) has the experience, knowledge and mental fortitude to handle anything Royal Birkdale throws their way.
Lowest round: 64 (-6)
Winning score: 267 (-13)
Winner’s Sunday score: 67 (-3)
Robby Kalland, golf writer
Winner — Sam Burns (50-1): I’m going to take a longer shot this week to continue the trend of the season with Burns, who has been insanely consistent since The Players. He’s got two major top 10s already, including a 2nd at the U.S. Open, and has been inside the top 26 in 9 of 11 starts going back to TPC Sawgrass (making the cut in all 11). His links record isn’t great, but the way he played at Shinnecock Hills (about the closest thing you can get to it in the U.S.) should buoy his confidence heading into Royal Birkdale.
Sleeper – Johnny Keefer (175-1): Keefer is coming off a T3 at the Scottish Open, and all this guy does is contend and win tournaments. He dominated his first year on PGA Tour Americas to move up to the Korn Ferry Tour and dominated there to advance to the PGA Tour in one year. It took a little bit to get his footing on the big tour, but he’s popped up a few times, and last week, he proved that he’s extremely comfortable with his game when he gets into the mix on a weekend. If he gets into the hunt on Sunday, he’s not going to wilt under the pressure.
Top 10 lock — Rory McIlroy: When Rory shows up to The Open with anything approaching his A-game, he finishes in the top 10. He’s been prepping for this since the U.S. Open, taking a page out of his Masters playbook to get some extra time in at Royal Birkdale in the weeks leading up to the tournament. He showed last week in Scotland that he’s in good form — if not for nine dreadful holes on Saturday in the fog he could’ve won — and if he’s not on the first page on Sunday, it’d be a shock.
Star who definitely won’t win — Tommy Fleetwood: I can’t tell you how much I’d like to be wrong here, but unfortunately, I just don’t see it happening. Fleetwood is always under some pressure at The Open, but this time he’s back home in Southport and will deal with everything that comes with that. The scene on Sunday, if he’s in contention, would be incredible, but I fear that, even if that’s the case, the anxiety of everyone trying to will him to the win would only add to the stress he feels — and he’s proven in the past that he doesn’t always hold up well.
Top Englishman — Tyrrell Hatton (T5): Fleetwood has all the pressure of being at home. Fitzpatrick is the favorite based on form, but he hasn’t quite found his best in the majors this year. Hatton, meanwhile, has two sneaky top 10 finishes in majors this season. While I’m not expecting him to win, he’s in form, comfortable on the links, will have the support but not quite the same scrutiny and has steadily improved as a major competitor.
Biggest surprise — Bryson DeChambeau completes golf’s Golden Sombrero: I’m not sure how much of a surprise it would be for DeChambeau to miss the cut at The Open, given his history here is checkered at best, but in the grand scheme, it would be shocking for Bryson to miss all four major championship cuts in 2026. That’s firmly in play, and my biggest concern with DeChambeau is that his mental game seems to be shot. He gets into a pit of negativity so quickly now on the course, and once his confidence goes, he tends to eject.
Lowest round: 65 (-5)
Winning score: 269 (-11)
Winner’s Sunday score: 68 (-2)
