The scene is set, the golf course is primed and players are positioned for competition to get underway at the 154th Open. Serving as the championship’s host for the 11th time, Royal Birkdale has an uncanny ability to award the Claret Jug to some of the biggest names in the game.Peter Thomson won here twice, while another Australian, Ian Baker-Finch, claimed his lone Claret Jug as well. In between, there were a slew of Americans in Arnold Palmer, Lee Trevino, Johnny Miller and Tom Watson. Then came Mark O’Meara and Padraig Harrington before Jordan Spieth’s crowning in 2017, the last time Royal Birkdale took center stage.This time around, something similar may be expected. Many of the world’s best have raised their games ahead of this championship, as the final major of the 2026 season gets underway. Only four rounds separate them from a successful campaign, a Claret Jug, the Champion Golfer of the Year title and a substantial check.
From a field of 156 players, including open qualifiers, feel-good stories, past champions hoping to capture some magic and the elite of the elite, let’s whittle it down to the nine who have the best chance of winning. One of these nine will almost surely emerge as Champion Golfer of the Year, a title they will be able to hold for a full year until July 2027.
2026 Open predictions, favorites to win
Odds via BetMGM
| 1 |
Scottie Scheffler
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| Let’s all relax. Even with the missed cut, he’s still the best player in the world, still performing at an elite level and still the man who this tournament goes through. Scheffler was not sharp in Scotland, but it afforded him some extra time at Royal Birkdale. Ball striking has been sound outside of the Scottish Open, and the short game remains ever-present. It’s a lot of noise right now, and he will silence the critics. Odds: 7-1 | |
| 2 |
Rory McIlroy
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| Interested to see his strategy off the tee as he possesses a gear that he peers do not have with the driver in hand. This dance between placement and aggression could be the key for McIlroy as he eyes his second major this season. Since the Masters, McIlroy has signed for a nine-hole score of 39 or higher in each of his tournaments, ultimately undoing his chances in those respective weeks. If he gets through those spurts with less damage, he will be right there. Odds: 17/2 | |
| 3 |
Tommy Fleetwood
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| Playing typical Tommy Fleetwood golf at the moment, which has translated to substantial success in the past. While he has yet to cross the finish line in a major, Fleetwood will lean on the home support, which could prove to be a double-edged sword depending on how he channels the fanfare. As complete as they come, the Englishman possesses a putter that he typically has not in his prior major attempts. Odds: 15-1 | |
| 4 |
Matt Fitzpatrick
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| Perhaps the Player of the Year entering The Open, Fitzpatrick leads the PGA Tour in total wins, strokes gained approach and strokes gained around the green. The former U.S. Open winner has improved as the majors have progressed this season and comes into this championship off a legitimate title run at the Scottish Open. He was Scheffler’s main threat entering the weekend at Royal Portrush in 2025. Odds: 15-1 | |
| 5 |
Jon Rahm
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| The two-time major champion has been hit-or-miss in the big-time events the last two seasons, but it’s hard to leave him out. When Rahm plays himself into a tournament, he tends to be a fixture throughout, as noted by his runner-up result at the PGA Championship. The Spaniard drove the ball beautifully at the Scottish Open, though it is the other aspects of his game to watch in England. Odds: 20-1 | |
| 6 |
Collin Morikawa
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| Not a lot of noise around the two-time major champion who already owns a Claret Jug. Morikawa appears to be back in full force after his Sunday 61 at the Travelers Championship propelled him into contention. Even without full health, he acquitted himself nicely in the first three majors, and this sort of environment should only help his cause as he can lean on his accuracy off the tee and elite iron play en route to contention. Odds: 30-1 | |
| 7 |
Viktor Hovland
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| The driver has taken a nice step in the right direction, a particularly nice step. If he is able to position himself more times than not, Hovland has the mid-iron game to win this golf tournament, as he did a couple of weeks ago at the Travelers Championship. The Norwegian’s short game is no longer a massive hindrance, and his ability to hole putts in crunch time remains impressive. Odds: 30-1 | |
| 8 |
Chris Gotterup
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| Three times a winner on the PGA Tour this season, a third-place finisher in his Open debut last year and coming off a solid title defense at the Scottish Open, Gotterup is galloping towards major contention. He has yet to be in the thick of weekend contention at a major, but signs suggest that will change quickly. The big right-hander has a soft variety in his game — both full swing and around the green — and his attitude feels apt for this test. Odds: 33-1 | |
| 9 |
Justin Rose
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| What a storybook ending it could be. From announcing his arrival as an amateur in 1998 to winning England’s first Claret Jug in 30 years and his own second major crown. Closer to 50 than 40, the former world No. 1 continues to position himself for chances at these major championships despite inconsistencies in between. He has the game, experience and mettle for one more. Odds: 35-1 | |
Who will win the 2026 Open Championship, and which longshots will stun the golfing world? Visit SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard, all from the model that’s nailed 17 golf majors heading into the weekend, including the past five Masters, and find out.
