The 2026 WNBA season has reached the midway point, and throughout the week we’ve handed out grades for all 15 teams and made mid-season award picks. Now, it’s time to predict which team will lift the trophy this fall. When we did this exercise back in the spring, the reigning champion Aces and Liberty were the only teams that received votes to win it all, and it’s no surprise that they factor in heavily again now — despite the fact that the Liberty are stuck in fifth place after an inconsistent start to their campaign.
That the Liberty are still one of the title favorites is a testament to their depth of talent, as well as the parity across the league this season. The Aces and Minnesota Lynx are tied for the best record at 16-6, but have not pulled away from the pack; the top seven teams are separated by just three games.
But can all of those seven teams actually win the championship? Or will it once again come down to the Aces, Lynx or Liberty, as has been the case for nearly half a decade. Here’s what our experts have to say:
Mid-season championship odds
Via FanDuel
- Lynx +150
- Aces +360
- Liberty +390
- Dream +1000
- Valkyries +1100
- Fever +2000
- Wings +2500
Mid-season 2026 Finals predictions
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| Champion |
Lynx |
Liberty |
Lynx |
Liberty |
| Runner-up |
Aces |
Aces |
Liberty |
Lynx |
Explanations
Ayala:
I entered the season expecting another epic Aces vs. Liberty clash, even though I had reservations about a win-now team handing the reins to a first-time WNBA head coach in Chris DeMarco. New York’s inconsistency has kept questions about the DeMarco era alive. The bigger swing factor for me is Betnijah Laney-Hamilton: between injury, personal reasons and DNP-Coach’s Decision stretches, we still don’t have a real handle on how she fits into the rotation, and that’s a bigger unknown than the coaching change itself. Yes, the roster potential is there, and a healthy Liberty squad with Breanna Stewart, Jonquel Jones and Sabrina Ionescu together is a matchup nightmare for anyone. But the newness of the staff and roster, compared to a Cheryl Reeve-led team, may still fall short — even with Stewart, my MVP pick, carrying the load.
I believe the Aces’ depth is a concern, especially since moving on from Chennedy Carter. Meanwhile, Minnesota has stayed a top team despite Napheesa Collier missing the entire season and Dorka Juhasz battling her own injury, too. Olivia Miles and Natasha Howard have been seamless additions alongside Kayla McBride, and Courtney Williams. As of now, I like Minnesota’s chances to become the first franchise in WNBA history to win a fifth title.
Gibbs:
The Lynx have been the most impressive and surprising team in the first half of the season, and with Napheesa Napheesa Collier on the way back, I was tempted to pick them to go all the way. But I’m holding off because as amazing as Olivia Olivia Miles has been during her rookie year, I think she will hit a wall – physically, mentally or emotionally – later this season, which will be completely understandable given the brutal transition from college to the pros.
Rather, I see us getting a rematch of the 2023 WNBA Finals between the Liberty and Aces. There are a lot of legitimate concerns about the Aces’ depth and defense, but A’ja Wilson’s greatness will be enough to carry the team through the first two rounds. However, I think Breanna Breanna Stewart and the Liberty will get the last laugh this time. It hasn’t been the best first half of the season for New York, but when Satou Sabally and Leonie Fiebich are healthy, this team is just as dangerous on the court as it looked on paper in the offseason. And the Liberty have had the Aces’ number since their ’23 clash, going 6-1 against Las Vegas in the regular season and 4-1 in the postseason and Commissioner’s Cup the past two and a half seasons. We deserve at least one more championship series between Wilson and Stewart in their primes, and I’ve got my popcorn ready.
Gonzalez:
The Lynx are the most complete team for me and they haven’t reached their full potential yet. Their chemistry is unmatched and has helped them succeed on both sides of the court. Minnesota is tied for the best record in the league even though Napheesa Collier has not played a single game yet. The Lynx have one of the top offenses in the WNBA and lead the league in 3-point shooting. Rookie Olivia Miles has been a key part of this effort as the first true point guard the team has had in a while. Minnesota’s defense is also one of the best in the league, which is to be expected under Cheryl Reeve.
I chose the Liberty as the runner-ups because they have a lot of talent on their roster and their depth could be a problem for any opponent they face in the playoffs. I’m aware New York has been dealing with injuries to key players all summer, including Sabrina Ionescu, who has only played 10 games so far. This makes it harder to build chemistry, but if we look on the bright side, these setbacks have allowed other players to develop, including rookie Pauline Astier who has become a key part of the rotation.
Maloney:
I don’t feel particularly confident about any team right now. I think the champion will likely be one of the Aces, Lynx or Liberty, but I could see the Valkyries or Dream getting to the Finals depending on how the bracket breaks. The Wings and Fever are both wildcards with the top-level talent to make a run, but it’s hard to fully trust either right now.
- The Aces are the reigning champs and have the best player in A’ja Wilson, but they just lost Chennedy Carter and have the worst defense among teams in playoff position (107.1 defensive rating, 10th in the league)
- The Lynx have the best defense (99.7 defensive rating) and are about to get Napheesa Collier back, but they rely so heavily on rookie point guard Olivia Miles and are 14th in bench scoring (15.9 points per game)
- The Valkyries have an incredible defense (101 defensive rating, second in the league) and tons of depth (league-best 35.1 bench points per game), but have the worst offense among the contenders (107.5 offensive rating, 8th in the league)
- The Liberty have the most overall talent and are one of two teams (along with the Lynx) in the top-five in both offensive (109.8) and defensive (104.7) rating, but they’ve dealt with significant injury issues yet again and don’t seem to know their best lineup
- The Dream, like the Valkyries, are a strong defensive team (103.7 defensive rating, fourth in the league) that struggles to score consistently (108.6 offensive rating, 7th in the league). Unlike Golden State, however, they have no depth (last in bench scoring, 15.7 points per game)
In the end, I went with the Liberty over the Lynx. I think they’re the two most complete teams right now, and as inconsistent as New York has been, I’m still willing to bet on their abundance of talent and depth.
