When I looked at FanDuel’s updated odds to win the World Cup Golden Boot Award as the tournament’s leading goalscorer entering the quarterfinals, it was a four-man race between Argentina’s Lionel Messi, France’s Kylian Mbappe, Norway’s Erling Haaland and England’s Harry Kane. Three of those four are still standing, with Norway out as the semifinals start today with Mbappe’s France vs. Spain.
Entering the quarters, Messi was the +120 favorite with Mbappe +140, Haaland +750 and Kane +900. Haaland is now off the board with his seven goals as he cannot win the award; yeah, you could argue Norway got hosed a bit in their 2-1 loss to England in the quarters, getting a potential go-ahead goal ruled out. That marked the only game this tournament where Haaland didn’t score, although he sat during a meaningless group stage finale. That might cost him this award.
2026 World Cup Golden Boot odds (via FanDuel)
- Kylian Mbappe, France (-140; was +140 entering quarters)
- Lionel Messi, Argentina (+145; was +120)
- Harry Kane, England (+1200; was +900)
Messi had a record nine-game World Cup streak of scoring at least a goal end in Argentina’s stunning 3-1 comeback win over Switzerland in the quarters as he sits on eight goals with Mbappe. But it’s Mbappe who is the -140 favorite to repeat as Golden Boot winner, with Messi at +145. Messi’s 21 career World Cup goals are a record that almost surely will be broken by Mbappe (20) in the 2030 event, if not this one.
Six goals have been enough to win the Golden Boot in 10 of the past 12 World Cups. No top goalscorers at the last 13 World Cups scored more goals than Messi and Mbappé’s eight. It is the first time in World Cup history that three players have scored seven or more goals at the same tournament.
The Argentines scored twice in extra time for that win over the Swiss, and there have now been a record 10-game winning goals scored at 90 minutes or later. In addition, a record 32 goals have been scored in injury time. Overall, then, 11.4% of all goals have come in 90+ or 120+ minutes, highest in World Cup history. In 24 knockout-stage games, there have been eight game-winning goals scored after the 85th minute. In the tournament total, there has been an average of 2.92 goals scored per game, the most since 2.97 in 1970. Only 5% of goals have been scored on penalties, which is the lowest percentage on record.
Kane is still sitting at six goals but is up to +1200 to win the Golden Boot, and he’s realistically the only other player with a chance. England are favored to beat Argentina on Wednesday in Atlanta with Kane at +125 for an anytime goal and Messi +130 (includes possible extra time).
Spain are the only team in the semifinals without a guy in the Golden Boot race as it faces France this afternoon outside Dallas. Mikel Oyarzabal leads La Roja with four goals and is +185 to score today, with Mbappe at +100.
I am not privy to FanDuel splits for the Golden Boot, but I do have them from BetMGM (prices are about the same) and that sportsbook is massively exposed on Mbappe as he leads in handle (41.6%) and tickets (21.2%) to win the award. It is also exposed on Messi as he’s getting 20.0% of tickets and 14.4% of handle. So probably out of luck.
The top four teams in the FIFA world rankings have all reached the semis of the same World Cup for the first time. Those rankings debuted in 1992. Not since 1990 has the WC semis also been made up entirely of previous winners. Then, like now, Argentina were the defending champions. They lost the 1990 final to West Germany. The Argentines are now +430 long shots to win.
Note that there will be a third-place game (not sure why) on Saturday in Miami, so the Golden Boot chances in theory won’t be over for Mbappe, Messi or Kane should their team lose in the semifinals. But they might play in a meaningless third-place game. The final is Sunday in New Jersey.
