2026 college football Top 25: X factors for each teamplayWhy Darian Mensah chose to transfer to Miami (1:40)ESPNMultiple AuthorsJul 31, 2026, 06:15 AM ET
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The best teams have a greater margin for error than the rest but even for them, a season can swing based on the performance of a newcomer, a key unit or a new coordinator.
For each of ESPN’s preseason Top 25 teams, we looked at an X factor that could go a long way in determining whether the season will be a success or a disappointment.
With the 2026 season fast approaching, here are some of the important freshmen, transfers and coaches to keep an eye on.
1. Ohio State Buckeyes
2025 record: 12-2, 9-0 Big Ten
X factor: WR Chris Henry Jr.
Once again, the Buckeyes landed the No. 1 wide receiver prospect in the country in Henry, who was ESPN’s No. 7 overall recruit in the class of 2026. Can Henry make an impact as a true freshman, alongside All-American Jeremiah Smith and veteran Brandon Inniss? At 6-foot-5, Henry has the tools to become a dangerous downfield and red zone weapon for quarterback Julian Sayin. Defenses will be loading up to slow Smith, which figures to give Henry plenty of favorable opportunities to show he can be Ohio State’s next great wide receiver. — Jake Trotter
2. Oregon Ducks
2025 record: 13-2, 8-1 Big Ten
X factor: S Koi Perich
Perich’s arrival in Eugene follows a blueprint that worked a year ago, when Dillon Thieneman also transferred from within the Big Ten. Perich was a standout performer the past two seasons at Minnesota — much like Thieneman had been at Purdue — and gives the Ducks an experienced player to backfill after Thieneman was selected in the first round of the NFL draft. It remains to be seen how the Ducks will fully utilize Perich, but he contributed in the return game and on offense for Minnesota, showcasing what a special athlete he is. — Kyle Bonagura
3. Georgia Bulldogs
2025 record: 12-2, 8-1 SEC
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X factor: WR Talyn Taylor
A five-star recruit entering last season, Taylor caught just two balls in limited playing time. Not to worry. His upside remains incredibly high. As a senior in high school, he netted nearly 2,200 all-purpose yards, and his speed could help fill a major void left by the departing Zachariah Branch. Still, for all the obvious buzz, Taylor has a lot left to prove, and Georgia’s other options at receiver are no more established. A breakout year from Taylor could be a game changer for the Dawgs’ offense. But if he still has a few growing pains to work through, the pressure will be on Mike Bobo, Gunner Stockton & Co. to find ways to get the ball downfield — something they didn’t always do well a year ago. — David Hale
4. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
2025 record: 10-2
X factor: The receiving corps
It’s no secret that the Irish wideouts have not been the team’s strength in recent years. No Notre Dame wide receiver has topped 700 yards since 2021. There have been some solid players — Malachi Fields was good in his lone year with the Irish in 2025 — but the unit as a whole has largely felt like a patchwork since Freeman’s ascendance as head coach. This year though, things look different. Jordan Faison returns after catching 49 balls in 2025. Jaden Greathouse appeared poised for a breakout following a solid playoff run in 2024 but got hurt early last year. He’s healthy and should be ready to emerge. Ohio State transfers Mylan Graham and Quincy Porter offer tantalizing talent. Cam Williams, Micah Gilbert, Jerome Bettis Jr., Devin Fitzgerald and others offer a superb amount of depth. Then consider that CJ Carr — one of the nation’s top QBs — will be throwing to them, and this has a chance to be the most dynamic passing offense in recent Notre Dame history. — Hale
5. Texas Longhorns
2025 record: 10-3, 6-2 SEC
X factor: Defensive coordinator Will Muschamp
Steve Sarkisian made arguably the boldest move of his head coaching career by the same-day announcement that he had fired Pete Kwiatkowski, his defensive coordinator since 2021, and brought Will Muschamp back to Austin, where he had previously served as Mack Brown’s defensive coordinator. The Longhorns have lost to Georgia three times in 2024 and 2025, and Sarkisian went to Kirby Smart’s defensive staff in an aggressive move to reshape the Longhorns’ defense. Muschamp’s style has drawn raves from players in spring practice, but he hasn’t called plays since 2020. Sarkisian’s move was made with a national championship in mind. Texas is loaded and Muschamp will be able to turn the Horns loose. — Dave Wilson
6. Indiana Hoosiers
2025 record: 16-0, 9-0 Big Ten
X factor: RB Turbo Richard
Turbo Richard, who ran for 749 yards and had 30 receptions for BC last season, has connections with Curt Cignetti from his James Madison days. Eric Canha-Imagn ImagesThe Hoosiers lost a pair of 1,000-yard rushers from last year’s national championship team in Roman Hemby and Kaelon Black, who are both now in the NFL. But Indiana added an intriguing playmaker from the transfer portal in 5-foot-9, 204-pound back Turbo Richard. Last year for Boston College, Richard rushed for 749 yards and nine touchdowns while catching 30 passes. Richard didn’t have many notable offers coming out of high school in South Carolina, but he did have one from James Madison when Indiana coach Curt Cignetti was still there. Richard could be a key player who helps keep Cignetti’s offense humming as the Hoosiers aim to defend their national title. — Trotter7. Miami Hurricanes
2025 record: 13-3, 6-2 ACC
X factor: QB Darian Mensah
Insiders around the ACC believe if Mensah is at his best, Miami will find itself playing for a championship again. Mensah threw for nearly 4,000 yards with 34 touchdowns and six interceptions last season at Duke, and gives Miami a more dynamic thrower at quarterback than Carson Beck. Offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson should be able to open up the playbook a little more given what Mensah, and the skill players at both receiver and running back, can do. Miami should resemble the type of offense it had in 2024, and Mensah is the key to putting it all together. — Andrea Adelson
8. Ole Miss Rebels
2025 record: 13-2, 7-1 SEC
X factor: LB Luke Ferrelli
The transfer linebacker will be in the spotlight because of all the offseason drama — he went from Cal to Clemson and then to Ole Miss among tampering allegations — but there is no doubt the Rebels need a player like him to help improve their defense. In 2025, Ole Miss ranked No. 69 in the nation in run defense — giving up an average of 4.2 yards per carry. Overall, Ole Miss gave up 5.2 yards per play, somewhat uncharacteristic of a Golding coached defense. Ferrelli certainly will be a key piece of the puzzle after earning ACC Defensive Rookie of the Year honors at Cal, with 91 tackles, five tackles for loss, a sack and an interception. — Adelson
9. Texas A&M Aggies
2025 record: 11-2, 7-1 SEC
X factor: Defensive line
The Aggies had three defensive linemen picked in the first three rounds of this year’s NFL draft, including All-American edge rusher Cashius Howell, so line coach Elijah Robinson has a bit of a rebuild on his hands. The position is still stacked, however, with former five-star DJ Hicks returning for his senior year at defensive tackle, and the addition of five D-linemen in the transfer portal. Mike Elko found success with transfers Howell, who arrived from Bowling Green and, in the previous season, Nic Scourton from Purdue. This year’s version is Anto Saka, an extremely athletic rush lineman who had 12 sacks in three seasons at Northwestern. But the Aggies also have high hopes for 2025 recruit Marco Jones, who played in 13 games last year with 2.5 sacks. — Wilson
10. LSU Tigers
2025 record: 7-6, 3-5 SEC
X factor: QB Sam Leavitt
If Kiffin has a quarterback he believes in, he wins. Enter Leavitt, the newest to try and find success in the Kiffin system. After sitting out all of spring with a foot injury he sustained during the 2025 season, Kiffin says Leavitt is at full strength for summer workouts. That is good news for a program that went all in to fix its offense. Leavitt is obviously the centerpiece, having led Arizona State to a 2024 CFP appearance before getting hurt and playing in only seven games a year ago. With playmakers such as Trey’Dez Green, Jackson Harris, Jayce Brown and Tre’ Brown III around him, Leavitt will have plenty of chances to shine. — Adelson
11. Texas Tech Red Raiders
2025 record: 12-2, 8-1 Big 12
X factor: LB John Curry
Hybrid linebacker John Curry can impact the Texas Tech defense in many ways. Matthew Visinsky/Icon SportswireA play-anywhere linebacker, Curry has already spent a year as a starter, but in the Red Raiders’ star-studded defense, he was honorable mention all-conference in the shadow of Jacob Rodriguez, who won the Bednarik, Butkus, Lombardi and Nagurski awards, and fellow linebacker Ben Roberts. Curry, a Lubbock native, flashed his immense potential in the Big 12 title game, with 10 tackles, including forcing a fumble by BYU’s LJ Martin, the league’s offensive Player of the Year. Texas Tech has preseason all-conference picks all over the field on defense, but Curry, a hybrid defender who can play linebacker or nickel in the star position, could end up being this year’s breakout star. — Wilson
12. BYU Cougars
2025 record: 12-2, 8-1 Big 12
X factor: LB Cade Uluave
The Pac-12 Defensive Freshman of the Year in 2023, Uluave had three productive years at Cal before returning home to Utah to finish his college career at BYU. Last season, he was a first-team All-ACC selection after finishing the year with 100 tackles and 12 tackles for loss. Few teams have been able to match the Cougars’ linebacker play over the past two seasons and Uluave’s arrival should keep that trend alive. — Bonagura
13. Oklahoma Sooners
2025 record: 10-3, 6-2 SEC
X factor: WR Parker Livingstone
In the history of the Red River Rivalry, rarely ever has a player left the Longhorns for the Sooners. But former Texas receiver Livingstone — quarterback Arch Manning’s roommate last year — could become a difference-maker for his new quarterback, John Mateer. The 6-foot-3, 202-pound Livingstone, who had six touchdown catches as a redshirt freshman last year, should give Oklahoma a physical weapon on the outside alongside returning go-to pass-catcher Isaiah Sategna III and Virginia transfer Trell Harris, who was a third-team All-ACC selection last year. — Trotter
14. Michigan Wolverines
2025 record: 9-4, 7-2 Big Ten
X factor: RB Savion Hiter
The Wolverines bring back Jordan Marshall, who rushed for 932 yards and 10 touchdowns while averaging 6.2 yards per carry last season. But Savion Hiter, who was the No. 2 running back recruit in 2026, drew the buzz during spring ball, with coach Kyle Whittingham calling the 6-foot, 210-pound Hiter physically “incredible.” With Hiter and Marshall teaming up alongside sophomore quarterback Bryce Underwood and receiver Andrew Marsh, the Wolverines have an exciting, young playmaking core that should elevate an offense that ranked just 11th in the Big Ten last year, scoring 27.5 points per game. — Trotter
15. Penn State Nittany Lions
2025 record: 7-6, 3-6 Big Ten
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X factor: QB Rocco Becht
One of the most effective ways to jumpstart an offense is to hire a coach or coordinator who then brings along a QB they coached before. Caleb Williams (USC), Cam Ward (Washington State), Bo Nix (Oregon), John Mateer (Oklahoma), Diego Pavia (Vanderbilt) and Devon Dampier (Utah) are some of the more high-profile examples. With Becht following Matt Campbell to Happy Valley, Penn State looks like the newest program that will benefit from coach-QB familiarity. — Bonagura
16. Alabama Crimson Tide
2025 record: 11-4, 7-1 SEC
X factor: Offensive line coach Adrian Klemm
The Alabama offensive line has not played up to par over the past several seasons, so coach Kalen DeBoer did something about it, replacing Chris Kapilovic with Klemm. Over the course of his career, Klemm has worked both in the NFL and college ranks. His task may be a simple one — improving the line — but the challenge is enormous. Alabama lost six of its top seven offensive linemen and brought in 11 new players. Of the six transfer linemen signed, only two started on the FBS level. Alabama was one of the worst teams in the SEC at running the ball. Blocking well, opening holes and improving this area has to be the top priority. — Adelson
17. Washington Huskies
2025 record: 9-4, 5-4 Big Ten
X factor: LT Kodi Greene
With four returning starters on the offensive line, the unit should be a strength for the Huskies. The one unknown is at left tackle, where the expectation is that true freshman Kodi Greene will emerge. The five-star recruit drew strong reviews during spring ball, which should pave the way for him to feature in the opener. With a player of his recruiting pedigree, Greene’s talent and potential are not in question, but it’s still tough to forecast how quickly a true freshman left tackle can get up to speed at the FBS level — especially in the Big Ten. — Bonagura
18. Utah Utes
2025 record: 11-2, 7-2 Big 12
X factor: QB Byrd Ficklin
Starting QB Devon Dampier is one of the most experienced returners in college football and primed for a big season. But there is still a case that he’s not the most exciting quarterback on his own roster, a distinction could belong to Ficklin. As a true freshman last year, Ficklin had 61 carries for 513 yards and 10 touchdowns. His 8.4 yards per carry ranked No. 3 nationally. It will be interesting to see how Ficklin’s role evolves this year, especially considering the change at offensive coordinator with Kevin McGiven coming in to replace the departed Jason Beck (Michigan). — Bonagura
19. Iowa Hawkeyes
2025 record: 9-4, 6-3 Big Ten
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X factor: TE DJ Vonnahme
Iowa could have another star tight end emerging in budding playmaker Vonnahme. As a freshman All-American, Vonnahme had a big finish to last season, culminating with a monster performance in the ReliaQuest Bowl. In the victory over Vanderbilt, Vonnahme had seven catches for 146 yards and a touchdown, becoming the first FBS freshman tight end to lead his team in both receptions and receiving yards since Brock Bowers did it for Georgia in 2021. Vonnahme, a former in-state high school quarterback, has the tools to become Iowa’s next great tight end. — Trotter
20. USC Trojans
2025 record: 9-4, 7-2 Big Ten
X factor: Defensive coordinator Gary Patterson
Head coach Lincoln Riley has put all his defensive eggs in the Gary Patterson basket, hoping the longtime TCU head coach can improve a unit that ranked No. 11 in the Big Ten in scoring defense and No. 13 in total defense. Patterson has the credentials, but he hasn’t been a full-time coach since he was fired mid-2021 amid TCU’s fall into mediocrity. Perhaps the Riley-Patterson pairing can allow both of them to recapture the high-level success they experienced earlier in their careers. — Bonagura
21. Louisville Cardinals
2025 record: 9-4, 4-4 ACC
X factor: The tight ends
Louisville’s tight ends caught 46 balls last season, which was a solid enough performance. But as Jeff Brohm looks to expand his offensive playbook, the Cards doubled down on that position for 2026, and the results could be explosive. Brohm brought in transfers Brody Foley from Tulsa and Justyn Reid from Tulane to go along with returner Jaleel Skinner. There’s depth and a high ceiling in the position room now, and when added to a dynamic backfield led by Isaac Brown and arguably Brohm’s best overall receiving corps, the Louisville offense has a chance to be one of the ACC’s — and maybe the nation’s — best. — Hale
22. SMU Mustangs
2025 record: 9-4, 6-2 ACC
X factor: RB Dramekco Green
Coach Rhett Lashlee believes he has a player with the potential to be an early-round NFL pick in Green, who battled through injury as a true freshman last year in limited playing time. Now fully healthy, SMU plans to pair him with transfer addition Kendrick Raphael to get back to the type of explosive ground game the team had in its run to the 2025 ACC championship game. Green has size and power to complement Raphael, who can do a little bit of everything out of the backfield. SMU lacked a consistent 1-2 punch a year ago, but Lashlee believes the Mustangs will have that now. — Adelson
23. TCU Horned Frogs
2025 record: 9-4, 5-4 Big 12
X factor: Linebackers
Sonny Dykes believes this is one of the deepest teams he has had, but there is not a lot of experience returning at linebacker. Kaleb Elarms-Orr and Namdi Obiazor were both NFL draft selections, and they combined for 209 tackles last season. Max Carroll has waited his time to lead this group, appearing in 30 games in the past three years and making 55 tackles, but the rest of the group will be settled in fall camp. Senior transfer Michael Short appeared in 30 games first at North Carolina and last year at Virginia Tech. The Frogs also signed five high school linebackers in the past two recruiting classes, so there is talent on hand, but finding the right combo is the challenge. — Wilson
24. Houston Cougars
2025 record: 10-3, 6-3 Big 12
X factor: QB Keisean Henderson
The Cougars return veteran Conner Weigman, who quarterbacked Houston to a 10-win season last year. But the Cougars also signed one of the nation’s most electrifying prospects in Henderson, the No. 1 dual-threat quarterback recruit in the country. Houston Willie Fritz reiterated during Big 12 media days that Weigman will be the starter. But Fritz also hinted that Henderson could play an immediate role for the Cougars, potentially in goal-line or short-yardage packages. Either way, Houston is in great shape at quarterback — both now and for the future. — Trotter
25. Tennessee Volunteers
2025 record: 8-5, 4-4 SEC
X factor: Defensive coordinator Jim Knowles
Two years ago, Knowles was coming off a national championship at Ohio State and was widely considered one of the most brilliant defensive minds in the game. Then he left amid much fanfare to Penn State and the wheels came off. The Nittany Lions’ D was still solid, but after a rough start to the year, James Franklin was fired as head coach and the whole season felt like a loss. Now, Knowles is looking to rekindle some of that old fire at Tennessee, where the Vols allowed 2.7 points per drive in SEC play last season — worst in the league outside of woeful Arkansas. A turnaround feels likely, but how much of Knowles’ complex system can he make work in Year 1? Coming off the missteps at Penn State, the pressure is on — for both Knowles and Tennessee. — Hale
