Narratives can take on a life of their own, especially early in Spring Training, when everyone is so desperately starved for anything interesting to sink our teeth into after the long offseason. Even though we know — we all know, right? — that you shouldn’t overreact to Spring Training, it’s inevitable.
Here are four big spring storylines going around after the first week of spring games, with some thoughts on whether I’m buying in or not:
Konnor Griffin is a long shot for the Opening Day lineup
The top prospect in baseball, Griffin’s price has been rising in Fantasy drafts lately, going from an ADP of 196.8 in January to 191.4 – and he’s risen a lot more than that if you go back before January. But the hype ran into a wet blanket last week when manager Don Kelly told reporters, “It would be a tough ask” for Griffin to make the Opening Day roster.
Don’t believe it.
Look, Kelly is right. It is asking a lot for Griffin to make the leap to the majors a few weeks before his 20th birthday. We haven’t seen a position plate debut as a 19-year-old since Juan Soto in 2018, and while he made the leap after just eight games at Double-A, Soto did at least get the call mid-season, when he had already proven there just wasn’t much left for him to learn in the minors. As good as Griffin was last season, he certainly didn’t show the kind of mastery of the strike zone Soto did – while Soto had more walks than strikeouts that season, Griffin struck out 122 times to 50 walks in his 122 games.
But folks are taking a relatively innocuous and true statement – “It would be hard for Konnor Griffin to make the leap to the majors as a 19-year-old – and extrapolating a lot more than is actually there. Yes, it’s asking a lot. It’s asking a lot for a player in their first professional season, a season that began at 18, to make the leap from “interesting player taken ninth overall” to “the consensus top prospect in baseball” in the span of a few months. Griffin already did that. He’s capable of answering for a lot, as it turns out.
That doesn’t mean Griffin will definitely make the Pirates’ Opening Day lineup. At this point, I’d probably put the odds at 50-50, with perhaps a slight lean toward him starting the season at Triple-A. But I don’t think that decision has been made yet, and it certainly won’t be made until he has a decent sample size of Spring Training reps under his belt. Griffin has to force the Pirates’ hands to make the Opening Day roster, but I don’t believe that decision has been made yet.
Griffin will get a chance to make the team. That’s more than we can say for any other 19-year-olds right now.
Brandon Woodruff might not be ready for Opening Day
Woodruff spent the offseason rehabbing from the lat injury that ended his 2025 season prematurely, and he told reporters Monday that he is “in a good spot,” especially compared to last year, when he was coming back from shoulder surgery. However, he also acknowledged after throwing a 25-pitch bullpen session that “it is fair to say I’m a touch behind the other guys” in camp who have already started throwing in games. And the big pull quote everyone is focusing on is when he mentioned he is focusing less on getting ready for Opening Day and more, “[being] available at the end of the year when it matters most.”
Believe it.
Last year’s comeback process was arduous in a way this current one doesn’t seem to be, but I buy that Woodruff might not be ready for Opening Day. Which is fine. You’re not drafting just for Opening Day, and truthfully, Woodruff is almost certainly going to have to be limited at points this season if for no other reason than he has thrown just 185.1 innings over the past three seasons combined, including just 106.2 in 2025.
By all accounts, Woodruff isn’t actually hurt right now, which is certainly worth noting. That doesn’t mean he doesn’t carry significant injury risk for 2026 – he obviously does! And I do think his current price (123.0 in 122 NFBC drafts since the start of February) is too high, given that risk.
But I’m not specifically downgrading him much because he might be a week or two behind the other pitchers in Brewers camp.
Griffin Jax should be pushed up draft boards
Edwin Uceta stated to Rays camp with shoulder discomfort, and he was recently shut down after being diagnosed with inflammation in his right shoulder. He has been shut down from throwing until sometime this week, but has yet to be ruled out for Opening Day.
Still, with most Fantasy analysts assuming the Rays’ closer role was going to primarily be a timeshare between Uceta and Griffin Jax, shouldn’t Jax be pushed up draft boards now? And we’re starting to see that, with Jax’s ADP over the past week jumping into the top-200 for the first time this spring.
Don’t believe it.
I mean, sure, push him a bit. His ADP over the past week is around 195, which feels fine. But I think that’s the floor for where Jax is going to be drafted moving forward, and I start to get a little anxious if he’s pushed up too far beyond that.
For one thing, it’s entirely possible Uceta ends up more or less fine by Opening Day. He still has time to ramp up and be ready by then, and even if it takes an extra week or two, that might not be enough time for the Rays to just hand the ninth inning over to Jax anyway.
And, of course, there’s also the possibility that the Rays just don’t want to name one closer. They often did treat Pete Fairbanks like the primary closer, but it’s not like he ever really got 90% of the save opportunities there or anything. The Rays have always had one of the more committee-led bullpens, and when we had Rays TV reporter Ryan Bass on the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast earlier in the offseason, he cited the 2021 team that had an MLB-record 14 pitchers record a save as his expectation for how the Rays will deploy their bullpens.
It’s easier to commit to not committing in February than April, of course, and it’s entirely possible Jax is just so dominant that he emerges more or less immediately from the pack. But the Uceta injury doesn’t really change my expectations for this bullpen too much – Uceta’s projected save opportunities may just be distributed to Jax, but it seems just as likely it’ll go to the likes of Garrett Cleavinger, Bryan Baker, or other pitchers in the bullpen.
So sure, bump Jax up a bit. Maybe your expectation for him can go from 18-20 saves to 22-25? That seems reasonable. He should definitely matter for Fantasy this season. But I don’t think he’s much more likely to end up with 30-plus saves now than he was before we learned about Uceta’s injury.
Coby Mayo matters again
Jordan Westburg was expected to open the season as the Orioles’ starting third baseman, leaving Mayo with no real obvious spot in the everyday lineup. But Westburg entered camp with an oblique injury and then recently underwent an MRI that revealed a partially torn UCL in his right elbow. That latter injury will force Westburg to open the season on the IL, and while the hope is he can recover with a PRP injection, the possibility of season-ending surgery has to loom over any kind of injury like this.
So, Coby Mayo is going to be the starter for at least the beginning of the season, right?
Believe it.
It’s been a bit curious to watch the Orioles keep Mayo around with no real plan to play him over the past few years, but surely Westburg’s inability to stay healthy played a part in it. Mayo has struggled to take advantage of the opportunities given to him, but it’s worth noting that those opportunities have rarely been consistent enough to truly say he’s been given a real chance.
It feels like that almost has to change in 2026, however. Mayo should at least get his sink-or-swim opportunity to open the season, and while he has just a .201 batting average and .634 OPS in his MLB career so far, it would hardly be fair to let that define him. In 196 games at Triple-A, he has hit .267/.363/.522 with legit plus power as well as some legit swing-and-miss issues. The latter might ultimately sink him and leave him as a long-term part-time, power-focused bench bat.
But there are real skills here, and he deserves a chance to let them flourish in the big leagues. This might be Mayo’s last chance, but I’m open to him as a late-round flier now that the path to that chance looks clear.
