Aaron Judge is in a familiar-looking slump, but history says the Yankees star will break out of it soon

For the ninth time in their last 13 games, the New York Yankees were losers on Thursday (TOR 2, NY 0). Not coincidentally, captain Aaron Judge continued his worst slump of the season. Judge went 0 for 4 with a strikeout and a double play in Thursday’s loss and is 0 for 11 with eight strikeouts in his last three games. During the team’s 4-9 stretch, Judge has hit .191/.321/.298 with one homer.

“I’m not doing enough at the plate,” Judge reported about his slump (via MLB.com). “… I wouldn’t say we’re not seeing the ball well. I think it’s about making sure we’re swinging at the right pitches.”

Judge is having a strong season overall, slashing .250/.381/.554 with 16 home runs, though he’s been going through it lately and it is dragging down New York’s offense. The Yankees have averaged only 3.15 run per game during their recent 4-9 stretch. As Judge goes, the Yankees go. It has been that way the last several years, and, right now, he’s not going.

“He’s just going through it a little bit right now,” Yankees manager Aaron Boone reported (via MLB.com). “Usually that means good things are coming on the other side. He’s a little in-between, probably. Fastballs got on him, and he was a little out in front of some other pitches … Usually anytime a hitter goes through it, it’s a little timing related. I think that’s all it is.”

Almost every Judge slump looks the same. It’s not because his contact quality suffers (very few players hit the ball harder). It’s because his swing decisions fall out of whack. Judge gets jumpy at the plate and starts chasing out of the zone, and there are ample opportunities to do so because few players in the league see fewer pitchers in the strike zone.

Here are Judge’s chase rate (O-Swing%) and OPS throughout the season. There’s a pretty obvious correlation here. When Judge is disciplined, he mashes. When he chases, his production plummets:

There is a mechanical component to this as well. Judge tends to open up too early with his hips when he slumps, putting him in a bad hitting position and a bad position to see the ball. That contributes to his plate discipline issues as well. Judge is human. He slumps like every other hitter in the same ways as every other hitter. His swing mechanics and approach come apart.

Prior to this 13-game rut, Judge was on a month-long warpath in which he hit .299/.438/.684 with 13 home runs in 33 games. That is more or less the same Aaron Judge who slashed .311/.439/.677 and won three MVPs with three 50-homer seasons from 2022-25. You needn’t look back far to see the last time Judge was the best hitter in the world. This slump hasn’t gone on that long, really.

With a hitter this talented, the slump can end at any moment, which could mean Judge hits a ball off the scoreboard in his first at-bat Friday night. In each of the last three seasons, Judge has had a 13-game stretch with a sub-.620 OPS, often multiple. This slump isn’t unprecedented for him. It’s just baseball. The regular season is ups followed by downs followed by more ups and more downs.

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For sure though, the Yankees are reeling a bit and Judge is struggling hard. Those two things are very much related. The Yankees need their captain to right the ship and soon, especially with the AL East-leading Tampa Bay Rays coming to Yankee Stadium for a three-game series this weekend. That’s a very important series for New York by mid-May standards.

“Anytime you’ve got a hot team coming in, it’s going to make it tough,” Judge reported about the Rays (via MLB.com). “… The offense isn’t too far off. You get a couple of timely hits, you get a couple of walks when you need it, and some good things are going to happen. You’ve just got to get some traffic back out there.”