AL Cy Young race comes into focus as two-man battle after Tarik Skubal is traded to Dodgers

Several weeks back, I discussed the state of the American League Cy Young race and noted that Tarik Skubal, in his return from injury, had an outside chance to win his third award in a row. I also noted the possibility of him being traded to an NL team, which would wipe him off the board. Sure enough, he’s on the Dodgers. There will be a non-Skubal AL Cy Young winner in 2026 for the first time since Gerit Cole won the honor in 2023. 

So what’s the AL race look like now? Let’s dive in. 

All stats are entering Friday, Aug. 7 and odds are via DraftKings. 

It’s a two-man race at the top

Dylan Cease, Blue Jays (-115)

Things appear to be trending in Cease’s direction now. He leads the AL in both versions of pitcher WAR, is second in ERA by a mere 0.02, is sixth in WHIP and leads in strikeouts. At 126 ⅓ innings, his workload is neither too low nor high enough to the point that there’s concern of being shut down — especially since he’s gone up to 189 ⅓ innings before, is playing for a team unlikely to be in contention in September and doesn’t have an extensive recent injury history. There’s every reason to believe Cease misses zero turns in the rotation the rest of the way. 

He’s getting stronger, too. In his last six starts, Cease is 3-1 with a 0.84 ERA and 56 strikeouts in 43 innings. Now that the voting body correctly doesn’t hold “his teammates aren’t helping him enough” — see Thursday’s Jays’ loss in Wrigley as an example — against starters any longer, the 7-5 record on a bad team isn’t prohibitive. In fact, it could help him. The Blue Jays are 13-8 when Cease starts and 41-54 when he doesn’t. 

The path is clear for a guy who finished fourth in Cy Young voting in 2024 and second in 2022. 

Cam Schlittler, Yankees (+105)

If voting were held right now, Schlittler might well beat Cease out. That’s one reason the odds are so close, in addition to the “Yankees tax” we often discuss (more people bet on the Yankees and that skews the odds). Schlittler leads the AL with a 2.26 ERA, is second in WHIP, third in strikeouts and second in innings pitched. It all adds up to him sitting second behind Cease in both versions of WAR — close enough that he’d have a good chance. 

I just can’t help but shake the feeling that he’s headed for an IL stint at some point. Between the minors, MLB regular season and playoffs last season, Schlittler worked 164 innings last season, and that was a career high by a country mile. He’s at 139 ⅔ innings this season, and the Yankees are surely going to try and plan to have him full-go throughout the entire playoffs, which means through Game 7 of the World Series. 

Carlos Rodón is out on a rehab assignment right now. Once he’s ready to return to the rotation, he can join Max Fried, Gerrit Cole, Ryan Weathers and Will Warren in the Yankees rotation. The Yankees will likely be cautious with the 25-year-old Schlittler. 

Who else is still in the picutre?

Sonny Gray, Red Sox (+2000)

Three decades ago, Gray would be the frontrunner here. He’s 14-2, and his team is absolutely surging right now. The Red Sox are 16-5 when he pitches, so he’s obviously had a major impact. He’s been great at run prevention. His 2.78 ERA is fifth in the AL. 

So why does he rank 12th in Baseball-Reference’s version of WAR (bWAR) and 16th in Fangraphs’ version (fWAR)? 

It’s everything else. He’s had good fortune with balls in play, as his 1.15 WHIP (essentially baserunners allowed per inning) is 16th in the AL. He’s 32nd in strikeouts. He does do a good job at getting grounders (fourth in the AL in groundball percentage), but his hard-hit rate is only in the 53rd percentile, meaning, again, he’s gotten pretty fortunate with his opponents hitting balls toward his defenders. 

He’s having a stellar year and has a chance at his first Cy Young. It looks like I’m nitpicking because I’m just trying to explain why he doesn’t have better odds to win here despite the record and being fifth in ERA. When deciding between strong candidates, we’re forced to nitpick. 

Gavin Williams, Guardians (+3000)

Williams sits 14th in the AL in ERA at 3.56. He’s 28th in WHIP. He’s 19th in bWAR and seventh in fWAR. Why is he this high? Well, for one, he’s 11-6 on a team some expect to win the division. 

But there’s also the strikeouts and momentum. At 178 punchouts, he’s second only to Cease and is on fire here. In his last five starts, Williams has 55 strikeouts against three walks in 32 ⅔ innings with a 2.48 ERA. 

Overall, he’s third in innings pitched, too. If things continue down this path, Williams could well continue to gain ground on the frontrunners.

Drew Rasmussen, Rays (+3000)

Rasmussen sits fourth in the AL in fWAR, sixth in ERA and leads the league with a sparkling 0.93 WHIP. He’s 10-5 for a division leader, too. 

It should be noted here that the odds for Nick Martinez aren’t listed. It’s a bit odd. He’s 11-3 with a 2.65 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 129 innings. He threw over 165 innings last season, so it’s not like he couldn’t top 180 this season. I don’t think he’s going to win, but he’s in the conversation for the top five. 

Any longshots?

Logan Gilbert, Mariners (+5000)

He’s fifth in innings pitched, eighth in strikeouts and 12th in ERA. He also sits 11th in fWAR and 18th in bWAR. 

Sean Burke, White Sox (+5000)

Here’s a decent longshot play (and one that seems better than Gilbert). 

Burke is picking up steam. In his last nine starts, he’s 4-2 with a 1.64 ERA and 71 strikeouts against 11 walks in 55 innings. Overall, he’s fourth in bWAR, eighth in fWAR, seventh in ERA, fifth in strikeouts and tied for ninth in innings. Absent Cease falling apart and Schlittler being shut down, I don’t think Burke could run all the way up to the top here, but it’s possible. 

Parker Messick, Guardians (+5000)

Messick only trails Cease and Schlittler in ERA, bWAR and fWAR. He’s also seventh in WHIP and sixth in innings pitched. The strikeout rate (he’s 14th in K) bogs him down a little bit, but the workload concerns are probably what does him in here. Between the minors and majors last year, Messick worked 138 ⅓ innings. He’s at 129 ⅔ right now.